What is your realistic best case scenario?

[ScGO's]

I believe Elias wants to add the next progression of Lyles, Gibson, ?, but I don't believe the team is interested in handing out a 4+ year contract. The last thing the Front Office needs is a dead weight FA contract on the books while they are trying to build a dynasty.  Instead I believe they will trade for a quality veteran starter. If they sign a FA it will have to be someone who they feel is better than Gibson but will take a 1-3 year contract

Best case scenario, they sign a Gray, Stroman, Maeda, or Paxton to a shorter contract, or maybe Giolito on a bounce back contract. Then trade for a Corbin Burnes; also try to snatch up Devin Williams in the trade; then make a play on Hader; he might be a guy the front office could justify going 4+ years on. Play the hometown card.

I also think there will be an array of Lottery ticket trades sending off small pieces that would be more valuable to other clubs: Mateo, Urias, Akin, McKenna, Baumann, Stowers, Vavra, etc.

I think Elias holds pat and keeps Santander, Hays, Mountcastle, Mullins, Ohearn as they have value, but he probably wants to see them actually be pushed out by the rookies; Best case scenario, the rookies force Elias' hands and he can trade a few of the mentioned names for pieces or prospects at the deadline.

[MarCakes21]

My realistic:

Trade Santander, Ortiz and Norby for Bryce Miller

Trade Mateo OR Urias for MIL depth

Sign Hector Neris 2/$16

Sign Liam Hendrix 1/$7

Let's the young guys play, slots in a 3/4 behind GRod/Bradish and around Means/Kremer.  Strengthens the back end of the pen.  Gives full time ABs to Kjerstad, with a time share for Mountcastle and O'Hearn again.  Allows you to bring up Holiday as soon as you're ready.

[Sports Guy]

Just now, MarCakes21 said:

My realistic:

Trade Santander, Ortiz and Norby for Bryce Miller

Trade Mateo OR Urias for MIL depth

Sign Hector Neris 2/$16

Sign Liam Hendrix 1/$7

Let's the young guys play, slots in a 3/4 behind GRod/Bradish and around Means/Kremer.  Strengthens the back end of the pen.  Gives full time ABs to Kjerstad, with a time share for Mountcastle and O'Hearn again.  Allows you to bring up Holiday as soon as you're ready.

You are going to pay LH 7M to not pitch in 2024?

[MarCakes21]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

You are going to pay LH 7M to not pitch in 2024?

Good point.  I'll pay Robertson 1/$7 instead.  I didn't realize he was out all of 24.

[drjohnnyfever1]

I don't think there is going to be a huge bump in salary numbers to go out and buy new toys.  I think because they seem to be "ahead of schedule" with the rebuild, and are in a position to do something trade-wise with prospects that they are going to stand pat on FA, mostly. 

Who would we trade?  Don't know.  I think there are guys that got their foot in the door who they'd still like to see a little before deciding to trade, Cowser, especially.  But I think by offering the arbitration deals to everyone, they are kind of saying, "hey lets keep doing the things we're doing and play the wait game a little on some of these just about ready guys."  They could be active mid season at the trade deadline and they'll probably continue to use the flea comb on the waiver wire. 

I'll take a guess at numbers only, tho... I could see attempting to acquire a pitcher who is in the 15-18M range but we'd have to get 2 years minimum of control.  That would register an overall increase of 3-6M over any pitcher we carried last year.  And that could be an acquisition by trade or outright FA.  But I don't see them going out and making a big splash.  Unless we're in the thick of it again this year and then I could see another expenditure in both money and talent at that point that would be as much as the 15-18M we could spend in FA on a pitcher.

But one never knows what other teams might come to us with, so who knows.  I think that is going to be interesting.  How much do other teams covet what we have, either on the MLB roster or in prospects?

[e16bball]

Pretty terrifying article from David Schoenfeld at ESPN today, just in terms of repeating the projected prices for a lot of these players that Kiley McDaniel put out the other day. Especially the pitchers. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto:  7/$212M

Blake Snell:  6/$150M

Jordan Montgomery:  5/$106M

Josh Hader:  5/$105M

Eduardo Rodriguez: 4/$72M

Sonny Gray: 3/$69M

Shota Imanaga: 4/$68M

Lucas Giolito: 4/$68M

Marcus Stroman: 3/$63M

Jordan Hicks:  4/$44M

Seth Lugo: 3/$36M

Robert Stephenson: 3/$30M

Yariel Rodriguez: 4/$30M

Michael Lorenzen:  2/$28M

Michael Wacha: 2/$26M

Nick Martinez: 2/$25M

Jack Flaherty: 1/$17M

 

Schoenfeld had the O’s signing Jordan Hicks for that contract (4/44) and trading Coby Mayo for Corbin Burnes. 

Realistically, I would think only Ed-Rod for 4/72 and Wacha for 2/26 would be price tags I’d expect the O’s to match. Maybe Stephenson if they intend to throw him into the mix for closer, but that still seems richer than what I could ever imagine them paying a reliever.

[Can_of_corn]

Not sure how it's terrifying.

MLB reported over 10B in revenue in 2022.

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Pretty terrifying article from David Schoenfeld at ESPN today, just in terms of repeating the projected prices for a lot of these players that Kiley McDaniel put out the other day. Especially the pitchers. 

Yoshinobu Yamamoto:  7/$212M

Blake Snell:  6/$150M

Jordan Montgomery:  5/$106M

Josh Hader:  5/$105M

Eduardo Rodriguez: 4/$72M

Sonny Gray: 3/$69M

Shota Imanaga: 4/$68M

Lucas Giolito: 4/$68M

Marcus Stroman: 3/$63M

Jordan Hicks:  4/$44M

Seth Lugo: 3/$36M

Robert Stephenson: 3/$30M

Yariel Rodriguez: 4/$30M

Michael Lorenzen:  2/$28M

Michael Wacha: 2/$26M

Nick Martinez: 2/$25M

Jack Flaherty: 1/$17M

 

Schoenfeld had the O’s signing Jordan Hicks for that contract (4/44) and trading Coby Mayo for Corbin Burnes. 

Realistically, I would think only Ed-Rod for 4/72 and Wacha for 2/26 would be price tags I’d expect the O’s to match. Maybe Stephenson if they intend to throw him into the mix for closer, but that still seems richer than what I could ever imagine them paying a reliever.

Schoenfeld is great but that’s an awful trade offer and I wouldn’t touch that Hicks contract.

[Sports Guy]

4/68 for Gioloto would be shocking to me.

[Frobby]

Everyone is assuming they won’t spend much money, and that’s probably correct.  I just want to point out that revenues were probably up by at least $25 mm in 2023, and can be expected to be up another $10-15 mm at least in 2024.    So it’s not like they can’t afford to bump payroll while remaining just as profitable as before.  

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Everyone is assuming they won’t spend much money, and that’s probably correct.  I just want to point out that revenues were probably up by at least $25 mm in 2023, and can be expected to be up another $10-15 mm at least in 2024.    So it’s not like they can’t afford to bump payroll while remaining just as profitable as before.  

Are you including the playoffs in that revenue jump?

[E-D-D-I-E]

On 11/21/2023 at 11:57 AM, Ripken said:

The biggest move will be not signing another Frazier type contract.

Elias will make another Irvinesque starter trade for someone we never considered and don't like.

Finally, some R5 guy most of us have never heard of will be the big bullpen addition.

We will complain and the Orioles will win 94 games.

But not win the World Series because looking down the ledge is not the same as jumping.

[Frobby]

48 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Are you including the playoffs in that revenue jump?

Yes, but notice I said “at least.”   They probably made about $3.5 mm from their share of playoff gate receipts, plus their take from parking and concessions.  As to the season, attendance was up by 550 k, so I’m figuring at least $20 mm there.   I’m assuming attendance will rise again next year — could be anywhere from modest to substantial depending on how the team plays.  

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not sure how it's terrifying.

MLB reported over 10B in revenue in 2022.

It’s terrifying in the sense that I would like to see the Orioles acquire one or more of these players, and I see maybe 2-3 price tags on that entire list that I think won’t trigger instant sticker shock for them.

 

[Can_of_corn]

16 minutes ago, e16bball said:

It’s terrifying in the sense that I would like to see the Orioles acquire one or more of these players, and I see maybe 2-3 price tags on that entire list that I think won’t trigger instant sticker shock for them.

 

They should know what the market is.

They were supposedly caught off guard by prices last year.