Means behind schedule and won't be ready by opening day

[interloper]

37 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Hyde said he does not expect Means to make opening day so all this "might stuff" can be eliminated for our thought process. Even if there was a sliver of a chance Means was able to go by OD, Hyde would not have said that.

I just don't have a lot of faith that after a whole offseason Means is not ready in spring training. I don't buy this whole January ramp up thing gets you started for the season. Hell, it cost us a Bradish injury and Means is not even ready for it after being shutdown since September. 

The recovery of their pitchers and timelines have been very long and reinjuries seem to be common under the Orioles medical/rehab system. Last year Tate never could pitch effectively, Seth Johnson took forever, and Carter Baumler took a long time then hurt himself again, was shut down, then started back up, then shut down again in Arizona Fall League.

The Orioles are good at a lot of things, but rehabbing pitchers have not exactly been a strength of theirs. 

I hear you, but I'm not sure I'm ready to go here quite yet and put blame on the Orioles staff. 

For example, we can cross Means off because he's been injury prone in his career. I'm not surprised he had both a back and elbow setback after TJS. To the extent the Orioles are being extra cautious with him, it's frankly warranted. 

Then let's look at Seth Johnson. He was acquired 8/1/22 and had TJS 2 days later. He got back into his first minor league game as an Oriole on 8/19/23, well within the normal TJS timeline of about 12 months. 

Baumler, yeah, just one of those guys. Tate to me sounds like a weird case. He just couldn't get anybody out when they initially brought him back before shutting him down again.

Overall, this isn't a very big sample, and I think each guy is kind of a unique case. I would guess that most organizations have a similar group of "frustrating recovery" guys. It's not always a straight line to recovery. 

All that said, I think it's warranted to keep an eye on this stuff.

Edited February 15 by interloper

[TommyPickles]

Means has had such a hard luck career. 

 

 

[Frobby]

35 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

The Orioles are good at a lot of things, but rehabbing pitchers have not exactly been a strength of theirs. 

I’m not sure I agree here.   Do you see other teams with a better track record on this stuff?  I don’t.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

But he was shutdown in September. He had an entire offseason to be ready. The fact that he's not ready for full go by February, is not good at all in my opinion. 

The thing that bothered me about the Means stuff is that they told him to “put it on ice for a few months” and then a few months became 4 months. It took him 4 months to recover from the issue he had late in the year?

Now, the good news it sounds like he will resume throwing soon. If he does and there are no setbacks, this is a temporary issue.

The problem is, even before the TJ surgery, he always had to miss time during the season for various ailments. This isn’t a guy that is known for his durability.

So, this doesn’t make me think he makes it through the season unscathed, even if he misses the first 4-6 weeks of the season.

So, I’m guessing the Os will be lucky to get 15 starts out of him this year.

[Billy F-Face3]

Man, hearing about all these pitchers injuries on the first day brings back the nightmares of hearing about Dylan Tate and DL Hall's injuries lst season. The team downplayed the severity of their injuries but it took them the entire season to rehab. 

Not good.

[interloper]

4 minutes ago, Billy F-Face3 said:

Man, hearing about all these pitchers injuries on the first day brings back the nightmares of hearing about Dylan Tate and DL Hall's injuries lst season. The team downplayed the severity of their injuries but it took them the entire season to rehab. 

Not good.

A quibble about DL Hall here. He was healthy and pitching, just without his usual velo because he couldn't lift during the offseason with the back injury. They made the correct and ultimately successful call of having him stop pitching, go on a weight-training regimen, and he regained most of his velocity by the end of the year. 

[Just Regular]

There's a podcaster who is a top NFBC player (read that as "gambling sharp" as you will) where a basic insight shared around guys who can't start spring training is that if the offseason's 100 days hasn't gotten you right, what's 10 or 20 more?

On the hopeful side, tournament access is easy and high probability playoff teams can if they are confident chart out paths to save some bullets for October.    

[webbrick2010]

The Burnes trade was couched as going all in for a WS run, but if Elias doesn't make moves to shore up the rotation we will be looking at giving up two major leaguers with years of control for a rental that won't be enough to overcome injuries. I mean Burnes is the replacement for Gibson (big upgrade), but now we are down 2 starters. 

To justify the Burnes rental we need to bring in a at least one more legitimate ML starter.

[interloper]

1 minute ago, webbrick2010 said:

The Burnes trade was couched as going all in for a WS run, but if Elias doesn't make moves to shore up the rotation we will be looking at giving up two major leaguers with years of control for a rental that won't be enough to overcome injuries. I mean Burnes is the replacement for Gibson (big upgrade), but now we are down 2 starters. 

To justify the Burnes rental we need to bring in a at least one more legitimate ML starter.

Hard to disagree with this.

[spleen1015]

19 minutes ago, interloper said:

Hard to disagree with this.

That's why I don't believe he hasn't been trying to do something more than Burnes.

[Just Regular]

Wells and Irvin pitched 196 innings last year and the team did alright.

If the baseball war of attrition on pitcher's arms consumes Tyler Wells once again by the All-Star break, it could just net out Elias has to spend more on pitching in July once he has a view what form everyone is in.

The price of poker on the first comments about Tyler Wells 2024 role has gone up today.    One byproduct of this blow might be one more year for Wells to try and actualize the role I think he's mostly seen himself in.    I believe Elias having had this intel a month the Club will have had Wells pivot in his mindset and prep work if he needs to stretch out.

Clubs should aggressively use good pitchers when they are in good form, and 30 weeks is a long time.

[dystopia]

1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

Wells and Irvin pitched 196 innings last year and the team did alright.

If the baseball war of attrition on pitcher's arms consumes Tyler Wells once again by the All-Star break, it could just net out Elias has to spend more on pitching in July once he has a view what form everyone is in.

The price of poker on the first comments about Tyler Wells 2024 role has gone up today.    One byproduct of this blow might be one more year for Wells to try and actualize the role I think he's mostly seen himself in.    I believe Elias having had this intel a month the Club will have had Wells pivot in his mindset and prep work if he needs to stretch out.

Clubs should aggressively use good pitchers when they are in good form, and 30 weeks is a long time.

I agree. If Elias gets one more starter, we'd have:

Burnes

[dystopia]

Just now, dystopia said:

I agree. If Elias gets one more starter, we'd have:

Burnes

LOL, accidentally posted before I had finished. We'd have:

Burnes, G-Rod, Kremer, Wells, and the acquired starter. Not that bad but depends on who the acquisition is. 

Just pray to God G-Rod and Burnes get through the spring all good.

[Moshagge3]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m not sure I agree here.   Do you see other teams with a better track record on this stuff?  I don’t.  

If the Rays were ever able to have their five most talented guys in a healthy rotation all at once they'd win 120 games.

[ExileAngelos]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

The Burnes trade was couched as going all in for a WS run, but if Elias doesn't make moves to shore up the rotation we will be looking at giving up two major leaguers with years of control for a rental that won't be enough to overcome injuries. I mean Burnes is the replacement for Gibson (big upgrade), but now we are down 2 starters. 

To justify the Burnes rental we need to bring in a at least one more legitimate ML starter.

So compared to our 101 season a year ago,  we replace Bradish with Burnes and have a ready to rock and roll Rodriguez and no longer have Gibson.  You are saying that means we can't win it all?  Lost season?  LOL.  And for the record, the trade for Burnes is a huge win for us no matter how you measure it.  Ortiz was never going to get playing time here and Hall is talented but will always struggle with control.