Jackson Holliday 2024

[banks703]

24 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

On defense? It seems at least arguable. Their career dWAR is similar (Gunnar 3, Volpe 3.5) but on OAA Volpe has a big advantage (Gunnar -1 this year/career, Volpe +9 this year/+10 career). 

 

Gunnar's -8 OAA in July due to the ten or so games of yips is the source of that gap. Gunnar was at +7 through June and I believe had climbed to +10 before the meltdowns on D. 

[banks703]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A month ago, I looked at Gunnar’s advanced metrics compared to Volpe’s and several others’, and at the time, Gunnar had a decent GG case.  That was before Gunnar made 7 errors in 7 games.  That probably killed his GG case, though he’s still above average on several metrics.   

The argument about Gunnar not being a premier defender is less about Gunnar and more about supporting the idea that Jackson Holliday is going to be a good infield defender. 

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

A month ago, I looked at Gunnar’s advanced metrics compared to Volpe’s and several others’, and at the time, Gunnar had a decent GG case.  That was before Gunnar made 7 errors in 7 games.  That probably killed his GG case, though he’s still above average on several metrics.   

No question. I just don’t see Gunnar as elite. I think there are very few players that qualify for that title.

For example, I don’t feel Gunnar is better at SS than Mateo showed in 2022 when he won the fielding bible award. And btw, I was skeptical Mateo could continue that and I was right but for that one season, he was excellent.

Hes really good over there though.

Edited August 9 by Sports Guy

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, banks703 said:

Gunnar had a bad stretch in July which ended with a -8 OAA for the month. I don't love OAA as an advanced stat but using it to declare that Volpe is elite and Gunnar isn't, but ignoring the fact that Gunnar's poor 10 or so game stretch is the source for such a wide gap between them is misleading.

 

 

 

 

Gunnar was at about a +5 or 6 OAA prior to his and stretch. I don’t care about a stretch of 10-15 bad games. It’s moronic to make proclamations off of a SSS like that.

Still, I think Volpe just gets to more balls than Gunnar does. I think he’s more fluid.

Gunnar is very good. I just think the title of elite applies to very few fielders at any position…and I don’t think Gunnar is one of those guys. He’s just not at the same level of guys like Witt and Wynn (other examples)

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

No question. I just don’t see Gunnar as elite. I think there are very few players that qualify for that title.

For example, I don’t feel Gunnar is better at SS than Mateo showed in 2022 when he one the fielding bible award.

Hes really good over there though.

Elite is one of those words that means different things to different people.  Some would say that means top 3-4 in the majors, others would say top 10.   And, it’s sometimes applied differently depending whether you’re talking about a major leaguer or a prospect.  A prospect who supposedly plays “elite” defense might just mean someone who would be above average at the major league level.   

So, what I’d say about Gunnar is he’s probably top 10, and capable of improvement as he gains experience.  
 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Elite is one of those words that means different things to different people.  Some would say that means top 3-4 in the majors, others would say top 10.   And, it’s sometimes applied differently depending whether you’re talking about a major leaguer or a prospect.  A prospect who supposedly plays “elite” defense might just mean someone who would be above average at the major league level.   

So, what I’d say about Gunnar is he’s probably top 10, and capable of improvement as he gains experience.  
 

Top 10 is way too many for elite. People may define it that way but that’s just not accurate. 
 

Masyn Wynn, for example, has a DRS of 12, OAA of 3 and far more arm strength than Gunnar has.

Witt has an OAA of 16, DRS is 8 (4th best) and similar arm strength to Gunnar.

I think we see a separation between the best and the next best.  Don’t see how the next best can be labeled as elite and on the same level as the best.

Witt and Gunnar are elite offensive SS. Wily Adames is an above average offensive SS but I dont think anyone would put him on the same level as those guys offensively. 
 

There is nothing wrong with being very good.

Edited August 9 by Sports Guy

[RZNJ]

22 minutes ago, Spy Fox said:

I think the balance of that evidence shows that maybe they are close, but if one is better so far in their careers it's Volpe. I don't see how that equates to being "beyond ignorant" to say that Volpe is a level above. 

Saying one is better than the other is a lot different than saying a level above or not in the same class.   I think it’s ignorant.   

[Sports Guy]

Can’t stand Jaffe but thought some would like to read this:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jackson-holliday-has-delivered-a-welcome-jolt/

[OnlyOneOriole]

6 hours ago, banks703 said:

Except he’s played 68 games over his minor league career at 2B. Do we legitimately think that they threw him out there without any work at the position in between games? Do we also think that they didn’t tell him going into the offseason that he would be playing 2B going forward?

This narrative that he’s struggling on defense because he’s new to the position is just plain wrong. There is an article (admittedly I am not able to find it) pre-draft that he was quoted as saying that he grew up a 2B and felt most comfortable there. That he was moved to SS either his junior or sophomore year in high school. So, 2B is not new to him. He’s just not a good (major league caliber) defensive player.

We have to stop with this excuse because it is pretty weak. He stinks as a MLB infielder. So what. They’re willing to stomach the defense for his hitting. Fine. He will get better. But let’s please stop with this “he’s new to the position” crap because it’s just that. Crap. 

Agree with all plus I will add this.  People act that moving from SS to 2b is like a quarterback moving to linebacker.  It is just SOOOOO difficult.  It just isn't.  I mean can we get a reality check here or is everyone so weak these days that a move from SS to 2b is considered a huge achievement?  It is basically the same position other than a few responsibilities are different.   But other than that?  You still have to field the ball and make a throw-usually to first base.  The throw is even  shorter than the one from SS so it should be easier other than the angle you throw at.  But cmon, these guys have been playing baseball since they were 4 or 5 years old.   It is not rocket surgery.

Watch the Trevor Bauer videos he makes and how smooth and effortless those Mexican infielders play their positions.  Granted a lot of Latin and Hispanic players are known for their good D but still.  Considering the amount of time that Holliday has played the infield-basically his whole life, there is just no reason he should be making the type of throws that we saw yesterday for example.  Which every kid does 1000 x a week playing little league baseball or in that back yard. 

Edited August 9 by OnlyOneOriole

[survivedc]

10 minutes ago, OnlyOneOriole said:

Agree with all plus I will add this.  People act that moving from SS to 2b is like a quarterback moving to linebacker.  It is just SOOOOO difficult.  It just isn't.  It is basically the same position other than a few responsibilities are different.   But other than that?  You still have to field the ball and make a throw-usually to first base.  The throw is even  shorter than the one from SS so it should be easier other than the angle you throw at.  But cmon, these guys have been playing baseball since they were 4 or 5 years old.   It is not rocket surgery.

Watch the Trevor Bauer videos he makes and how smooth and effortless those Mexican infielders play their positions.  Granted a lot of Latin and Hispanic players are known for their good D but still.  Considering the amount of time that Holliday has played the infield-basically his whole life, there is just no reason he should be making the type of throws that we say yesterday for example.  Which every kid does 1000 x a week playing little league baseball or in that back yard. 

It is different enough to trip people up, Gunnar being a good example. You’d have thought he’d never been on the dirt before. I agree that it shouldn’t be as big of a change, but that’s also why I think it’s mostly mental for JH.

[OnlyOneOriole]

5 minutes ago, survivedc said:

It is different enough to trip people up, Gunnar being a good example. You’d have thought he’d never been on the dirt before. I agree that it shouldn’t be as big of a change, but that’s also why I think it’s mostly mental for JH.

Yes I for sure think it is all mental with both GH and JH.  They know how to throw a baseball to a standing target.  But right now they are thinking too much instead of as the joker says....."just doing things".  No plan. 

GH seems to be coming out of it.  Lets hope JH gets better  because this has seemed to be an issue with him dating back to last spring. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

12 minutes ago, survivedc said:

It is different enough to trip people up, Gunnar being a good example. You’d have thought he’d never been on the dirt before. I agree that it shouldn’t be as big of a change, but that’s also why I think it’s mostly mental for JH.

I would also add he is the 1-1 draft pick in his draft.  Not the 642nd pick or a walk on.  He should be able to field a position at an average or above average grade considering his draft position. 

I mean.....what are we even doing here???

But maybe I am asking too much in today's world.

Edited August 9 by OnlyOneOriole

[CaptainRedbeard]

3 hours ago, banks703 said:

The lack of arm strength conversation predates the elbow injury this year. I wrote up a pretty detailed post last year about how weak his arm is compared to other SS in the league. He does have good range but that doesn't mean much if he can't field it and can't throw it. 

I’m talking about Holliday playing 2B. There’s plenty of reason to think he doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS. I don’t think his arm is so poorly regarded to think it will be an impediment to him being a 2B. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

8 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

I’m talking about Holliday playing 2B. There’s plenty of reason to think he doesn’t have the arm strength to play SS. I don’t think his arm is so poorly regarded to think it will be an impediment to him being a 2B. 

Yeah for playing 2nd I think is arm strength is adequate.  At this point it is more about his timing on his throws (he always seems to wait to throw) and his accuracy.    Fielding?  He is ok.  Average.  Maybe a little below average right now. 

[banks703]

1 minute ago, survivedc said:

It is different enough to trip people up, Gunnar being a good example. You’d have thought he’d never been on the dirt before. I agree that it shouldn’t be as big of a change, but that’s also why I think it’s mostly mental for JH.

Gunnar bounced back and forth between SS and 3B. I'm not sure what this has to do with him.