Jud Fabian, 2024

[Frobby]

Fabian played CF in Enrique Bradfield’s first game in the Bowie OF.  Pre-Bradfield, Fabian started 55 games in CF, 23 in LF, 10 in RF.   It will be interesting to see if he continues to get the lion’s share of time in CF while he’s in Bowie with Bradfield.   

Fabian had an outstanding night with the bat, 3 for 4 with a double, homer, sac fly and 4 RBI, boosting his line to .237/.323/.442.  He’s having a very strong August so far, .355/.475/.645.   
 

Edited August 14 by Frobby

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

Fabian played CF in Enrique Bradfield’s first game in the Bowie OF.  Pre-Bradfield, Fabian started 55 games in CF, 23 in LF, 10 in RF.   It will be interesting to see if he continues to get the lion’s share of time in CF while he’s in Bowie with Bradfield.   

Fabian had an outstanding night with the bat, 3 for 4 with a double, homer, sac fly and 4 RBI, boosting his line to .237/.323/.442.  He’s having a very strong August so far, .355/.475/.645.   
 

Good point on the big August. Maybe I’m reading too much into things, but we could be letting him build that overall stat line up, and his trade value, for the inevitable deal for a SP to replace Burnes in the offseason???

Also, I like the idea of letting him play out his hot streak in Bowie for his confidence. He’s had his struggles there. 

[Just Regular]

Fabian might have a small window of time between Mullins and EBJ-Honeycutt to push for a first string role.

K% about 8 points better so far this year.

EBJ has been okay but hasn't really erased most of the 1 year head start yet.

Even if Mullins rebounds, Fabian could have a shot mid-2025 at the role Austin Slater has now, which I thought for a time might have been Connor Norby's niche supporting an all lefty Cowser-Mullins-Kjerstad crew.

[seak05]

Fabian is interesting because if has enough bat he’d feel a really big hole as a right handed hitting outfielder who can play of defense. 

[sportsfan8703]

1 hour ago, Just Regular said:

Fabian might have a small window of time between Mullins and EBJ-Honeycutt to push for a first string role.

K% about 8 points better so far this year.

EBJ has been okay but hasn't really erased most of the 1 year head start yet.

Even if Mullins rebounds, Fabian could have a shot mid-2025 at the role Austin Slater has now, which I thought for a time might have been Connor Norby's niche supporting an all lefty Cowser-Mullins-Kjerstad crew.

Fabian is RH.  All of our OF our LH.  Cowser, Mullins, Kjerstad, EBJ, and Beavers.  Only Honeycutt is RH as well.  Fabian should be able to carve out a Ryan Mckenna role.  I'm hoping for a CF version of Reimold.  

[86this]

 

 

[CaptainRedbeard]

Excited to see Fabian in AAA so we can get some Statcast data on his swing decisions and contact rates.

Fabian is rule 5 eligible after 2025 so I don’t expect his will factor into our plans for 2025 this offseason. They’ll still need to add a righty OF in the current Slater role. But if things go well for Fabian in AAA, he could be an option for that role by midseason next year, and certainly for 2026+. 

Fabian turns 24 in a month so altogether he’s done a pretty good job at moving through the minors, even though it feels like he’s been stuck in AA forever. He still only just ducked under a 30% K rate this year in AA so it will be big to see whether he can hang around that number versus AAA pitching or if that’s going to spike.

[Tony-OH]

They need to challenge Fabian in AAA, but I would not be surprised if he struggles once there offensively. I'm not sure I've ever seen him hit a breaking ball or high velocity fastballs up in the zone well.

Hopefully he'll figure things out because he certainly a plus defender in the outfield and would fit very nicely in Slaters role at some point if he can prove he can hit lefties well enough.

[Frobby]

I’d say dropping his K rate in AA from 37.5% in 2023 to 29.9% this year is pretty solid progress.  He might even see a further drop in the land of the robo-ump.  The overall K rate is 24.3% in the Eastern Lesgue, 23.1% in the International League.  

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’d say dropping his K rate in AA from 37.5% in 2023 to 29.9% this year is pretty solid progress.  He might even see a further drop in the land of the robo-ump.  The overall K rate is 24.3% in the Eastern Lesgue, 23.1% in the International League.  

That's the kind of drop the O's will NEED to see from Honeycutt as he progresses, in order for that pick to work out. 

If Fabian maintains that drop in k-rate at AAA, he'll be a McKenna-plus kind of guy. More power, more defense, similarly bad hit tool. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d say dropping his K rate in AA from 37.5% in 2023 to 29.9% this year is pretty solid progress.  He might even see a further drop in the land of the robo-ump.  The overall K rate is 24.3% in the Eastern Lesgue, 23.1% in the International League.  

The robo-ump is a good point. He definitely works his fair share of walks and I’m sure swing decisions have been heavily emphasized for him developmentally. He could be the type to benefit a good deal from an automated zone. 

[CaptainRedbeard]

2 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

They need to challenge Fabian in AAA, but I would not be surprised if he struggles once there offensively. I'm not sure I've ever seen him hit a breaking ball or high velocity fastballs up in the zone well.

Hopefully he'll figure things out because he certainly a plus defender in the outfield and would fit very nicely in Slaters role at some point if he can prove he can hit lefties well enough.

In a weird way, because I view Fabian as a future bench/role player, having clearly identifiable weaknesses isn’t necessarily a bad thing if it means he’s putting up good enough numbers against everything else. They should be able to shield him from his weaknesses in how they deploy him.

Fabian very likely won’t ever hit MLB velo or righty breaking balls well enough to be a starter. But lefties on average throw a tick or two slower - can he handle MLB lefty velo? He may struggle with righty breaking balls going away from him, but will he be able to handle lefty offspeed going the same direction (or will he have issues like Cowser vs. righties)? He’s faced so few lefties in the lower minors, hopefully the Orioles can start getting a read on answering those questions at the AAA level.

Austin Slater has a career 85 wRC+ vs RHP and 122 wRC+ LHP, and is a decent but not elite defender. He’s been around a 1 WAR/season bench player in his career, one of the better players in that limited role across the league during that time.  Fabian is probably a better defender, so the bar is even lower offensively - if he can even just be 75-85 wRC+ vs. RHP and 100-110 wRC+ vs LHP, he’ll be a pretty good bench piece. 

[OriolesMagic83]

Does Fabian field well enough to cover center field for the O's?  Could the O's try to patchwork centerfield next year w/ Cowser, Fabian, and some AAAA types instead of bringing back Mullins for $9 million and have him but up .600 OPS in part time duty?  This team has a lot of needs, money might be better spent elsewhere.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Does Fabian field well enough to cover center field for the O's?  Could the O's try to patchwork centerfield next year w/ Cowser, Fabian, and some AAAA types instead of bringing back Mullins for $9 million and have him but up .600 OPS in part time duty?  This team has a lot of needs, money might be better spent elsewhere.

Fabian historically has been considered a better defender than Cowser.  Views on that may nave changed based on how well Cowser has defended this year.  But I’m pretty confident Fabian could play solid major league defense in CF. 

[RZNJ]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fabian historically has been considered a better defender than Cowser.  Views on that may nave changed based on how well Cowser has defended this year.  But I’m pretty confident Fabian could play solid major league defense in CF. 

The way Elias values depth, I’d bet on Mullins coming back with a line of CF prospects, Fabian, Bradfield, and Honeycutt, percolating from Norfolk to Aberdeen next year.    Maybe Ced has a bit of a bounce back heading into his FA.