How much do we REALLY lose(and what do we gain) by replacing Urias at 3b with Mayo...or Norby going to 2b...and Westy back to 3B?

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, yayterps said:

or the inconsistent strike zone of MLB umps

Right, I think this gets lost. Kids in the MiL know the strike zone and it will be consistent. See thousands of pitches over the course of a few seasons with a strike zone that is consistent, then come up to the ML where a ball 6 inches off the plate is a strike as much as it's a ball. The ML umps calling balls/strikes can't be replaced fast enough.

[Matt Bennett]

37 minutes ago, Bemorewins said:

I'm not saying that Urias is a good or even decent offensive player. But what I am saying is that given the defense that he brings and the rest of our other 8 offensive players (especially against RH pitching), we really don't need an offensive boost right now.

Didn't we just salivate over Holliday and Kjerstad? And that is not to say that both won't be wonderful major leaguers in time. But it is to say, that it is not very likely that guys make the jump from AAA to MLB and right away start out performing capable major leaguers.

I believe (along with MANY talent evaluators throughout the sport) that Jackson Holliday is our most talented prospect. And he struggled mightily is his brief major league stint. The jump from AAA to the Bigs is a substantial one in 2024. The thought that these top prospects gaudy offensive numbers (put up at AAA) will have some kind of direct/immediate carryover is probably not very realistic.

I’ve never really understood this line of argument. Runs are runs and wins are wins. “Runs scored” minus “runs allowed” determines whether you win the game. It doesn’t really matter to me how we get to a positive formula result, only that it’s positive. 

The Orioles need to get better because their opponents are outscoring them 35-40% of the time. There is no ceiling to the amount of runs you can score. 65% is not the maximum proportion of games you’re allowed to win. Whoever contributes more “positivity” to that golden formula of runs scored minus runs allowed is the better player and should play. Since the Holliday demotion, there is lots of playing time going towards Ramon Urias in this 2B/3B slot. Perhaps you think Ramon Urias is the better player than the alternative but I reject the idea that the worse player is somehow a better fit for the roster because of the players around them. 

I was surprised when both Holliday and Kjerstad were promoted. The former because I was shocked at the speed in which Elias promoted a draftee out of high school through the system. The latter because I struggled to see where Kjerstad would get at-bats from with O’Hearn, Cowser, Santander, and Mountcastle here. But there is an opening at 2B/3B as long as Ramon Urias is playing below replacement level ball. The 2024 Orioles are not a team that should be trotting out a below replacement level player. 

Holliday’s pathetic stint in the majors should not deter the next man up mentality. We are not stuck with the current 13 man position player roster because Holliday struggled. The only question is whether Norby/Mayo is a better player than Urias in 2024. Urias is helping answer that question everyday his OPS remains below or anywhere near .500. They are not Holliday. Henderson and Westburg did well immediately. Maybe they would too.

[Malike]

1 minute ago, Matt Bennett said:

I’ve never really understood this line of argument. Runs are runs and wins are wins. “Runs scored” minus “runs allowed” determines whether you win the game. It doesn’t really matter to me how we get to a positive formula result, only that it’s positive. 

The Orioles need to get better because their opponents are outscoring them 35-40% of the time. There is no ceiling to the amount of runs you can score. 65% is not the maximum proportion of games you’re allowed to win. Whoever contributes more “positivity” to that golden formula of runs scored minus runs allowed is the better player and should play. Since the Holliday demotion, there is lots of playing time going towards Ramon Urias in this 2B/3B slot. Perhaps you think Ramon Urias is the better player than the alternative but I reject the idea that the worse player is somehow a better fit for the roster because of the players around them. 

I was surprised when both Holliday and Kjerstad were promoted. The former because I was shocked at the speed in which Elias promoted a draftee out of high school through the system. The latter because I struggled to see where Kjerstad would get at-bats from with O’Hearn, Cowser, Santander, and Mountcastle here. But there is an opening at 2B/3B as long as Ramon Urias is playing below replacement level ball. The 2024 Orioles are not a team that should be trotting out a below replacement level player. 

Holliday’s pathetic stint in the majors should not deter the next man up mentality. We are not stuck with the current 13 man position player roster because Holliday struggled. The only question is whether Norby/Mayo is a better player than Urias in 2024. Urias is helping answer that question everyday his OPS remains below or anywhere near .500. They are not Holliday. Henderson and Westburg did well immediately. Maybe they would too.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but do you think they should have a higher winning percentage over the course of the season than .650?

[Matt Bennett]

6 minutes ago, Malike said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but do you think they should have a higher winning percentage over the course of the season than .650?

Thanks for asking! The Orioles should attempt to get as close as possible to a 100% winning percentage! Replacing bad players with better players is a good way to do that. 

[Aristotelian]

Urias has enough of a track record that we shouldn't panic over a poor month, especially when he has only just now started getting regular reps. We know he is not this bad with the bat. I'm fine with giving him some time to play himself out of the job. Also fine with Mayo if/when they decide he's ready.

[Malike]

5 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

Thanks for asking! The Orioles should attempt to get as close as possible to a 100% winning percentage! Replacing bad players with better players is a good way to do that. 

Okay, I was just curious because you seemed to be suggesting that winning 100 games (.617) isn't acceptable. .650 is 107-111 territory, and personally, I think that is setting an unrealistic bar. Does it happen? Occasionally, and I'm sure the goal for every team is to win 100% of the games, but I don't think we'll ever see that in baseball. If they play .620 I'm not going to fault them for winning 101 games or think they aren't putting their best players in positions to succeed.

[PeteCanes]

Get the Duke of Baltimore up here now!

[Bemorewins]

9 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

I’ve never really understood this line of argument. Runs are runs and wins are wins. “Runs scored” minus “runs allowed” determines whether you win the game. It doesn’t really matter to me how we get to a positive formula result, only that it’s positive. 

The Orioles need to get better because their opponents are outscoring them 35-40% of the time. There is no ceiling to the amount of runs you can score. 65% is not the maximum proportion of games you’re allowed to win. Whoever contributes more “positivity” to that golden formula of runs scored minus runs allowed is the better player and should play. Since the Holliday demotion, there is lots of playing time going towards Ramon Urias in this 2B/3B slot. Perhaps you think Ramon Urias is the better player than the alternative but I reject the idea that the worse player is somehow a better fit for the roster because of the players around them. 

I was surprised when both Holliday and Kjerstad were promoted. The former because I was shocked at the speed in which Elias promoted a draftee out of high school through the system. The latter because I struggled to see where Kjerstad would get at-bats from with O’Hearn, Cowser, Santander, and Mountcastle here. But there is an opening at 2B/3B as long as Ramon Urias is playing below replacement level ball. The 2024 Orioles are not a team that should be trotting out a below replacement level player. 

Holliday’s pathetic stint in the majors should not deter the next man up mentality. We are not stuck with the current 13 man position player roster because Holliday struggled. The only question is whether Norby/Mayo is a better player than Urias in 2024. Urias is helping answer that question everyday his OPS remains below or anywhere near .500. They are not Holliday. Henderson and Westburg did well immediately. Maybe they would too.

You wrote a lot here and I appreciate your willingness to clearly express your opinion. I will try to respond as best I can.

1. There is absolutely no guarantee that Norby or Mayo, will out play and out hit Urias right now. What we do know with a much higher degree of certainty is that neither will give you the same level of defense. Or anywhere close for that matter. Norby is not really killing it right now at AAA. He's slashing .274/.346/.487/.833. And this is his third go round at AAA (not 3 hole seasons but parts of 3 including all last year). While those numbers would be excellent at the Major League level, what would you project that the translation of those numbers would produce in terms of output at the Big League level?

2. You state that the Orioles need to get better because their opponents are outscoring them in 35- 40% of their games. What would be the goal 30%? 20%? 15% Less? Because if you win at a 60% clip (outscoring your opponents) that is 97 wins. If you outscore your opponents at a clip of 65% that is a 105 win team. How much are we going for/think is realistic?

3. You state that Henderson and Westburg did well immediately. I guess you would have to define "well". All you have to do is a quick search of Gunnar on this board or the game threads from this time last year. And most posters/fans wanted to send him back down to AAA. Westburg had a solid season at the Major League level last season and OPSd .715. If we could get that out of Norby or Mayo this year, that would be great. But that is far from a guarantee.

4. Lastly, I think the expression "next man up" may work better in terms of a football terminology than a baseball one. Because pro football is driven by one position. Where many of the other positions players can be interchangable and the team can still find success as long as the QB plays well. Baseball not so much. It requires more contributions from several different players on the team regardless of one player's greatness (Ohtani/Trout). 

5. Let's say Norby comes up and holds his own. What are you going to do with him when Holliday is inevitably ready? Use him as the short side of platoon/bench player? Trade him? Something else?

[Matt Bennett]

5 minutes ago, Malike said:

Okay, I was just curious because you seemed to be suggesting that winning 100 games (.617) isn't acceptable. .650 is 107-111 territory, and personally, I think that is setting an unrealistic bar. Does it happen? Occasionally, and I'm sure the goal for every team is to win 100% of the games, but I don't think we'll ever see that in baseball. If they play .620 I'm not going to fault them for winning 101 games or think they aren't putting their best players in positions to succeed.

I would enjoy watching .620 or .650 baseball. Higher winning percentages than that are mathematically possible and preferable! That’s why I said as close as possible. 

I balked at the suggestion that “nothing is broke” when we are virtually tied with the Yankees and have not put the Yankees and every other team in baseball in our rear view mirror. That’s the goal. 

[Malike]

3 minutes ago, Matt Bennett said:

I would enjoy watching .620 or .650 baseball. Higher winning percentages than that are mathematically possible and preferable! That’s why I said as close as possible. 

I balked at the suggestion that “nothing is broke” when we are virtually tied with the Yankees and have not put the Yankees and every other team in baseball in our rear view mirror. That’s the goal. 

I think it's difficult to put anyone in your rearview mirror in April. The Rays started 30-9 and never put anyone in the rearview mirror. I get what you are saying about the goal to win as much as possible and I personally believe the team is trying to do that.

[gtman55]

It sure would be a lot easier if major league rosters had 30 players.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

33 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Urias has enough of a track record that we shouldn't panic over a poor month, especially when he has only just now started getting regular reps. We know he is not this bad with the bat. I'm fine with giving him some time to play himself out of the job. Also fine with Mayo if/when they decide he's ready.

I'm not worried about Urias now, but if it's June and he's still hitting poorly then ok make a move. If the Orioles trust Mayo defensively at 3B then I'm cool with it, but I think he ends up playing another position for his career.

[wildcard]

None of us get to make the decisons about when Holliday, Mayo, Norby or Stowers are promoted to the majors.   That decision is made by Elias.

It appears that Elias does not think Mayo is ready defensively to play 3B for the O's.   And DH/1B is clogged with players who can hit.

I don't think  Elias thinks Norby is going to be better at 2B than Westburg or Holliday.   That is why Elias is trying to get playing time for Norby at corner outfield in AAA.   Norby has started only 16 games at the outfield corners this season.  And only started 54 games in the outfield corners in his major league career.  Apparently Elias does not think he is ready to beat out Santander, Cowser or even Hays at LF or RF.  One of the reason McKenna is on the roster is that he can backup CF.   I don't think Norby has even played CF.   So Norby continues to develop at AAA no matter how much he hits.

Holliday appears to be the O's 2nd baseman of the future.    He has a few things to work on in AAA in the near term.

Stowers is stuck behind Santander, Cowser and Hays.   If he has to beat one of them out he probably does not get promoted.  His best shot is if someone get injured.

Kjerstad got promoted but is not seeing much playing time in the majors.   Probably has a lot to do with he players ahead of him.   That plus his defense,  rookie adjustment period and  a gut of lefthanded hitting ahead of him.

So we can wish and piss and moan all we want but its Elias that will make the decisions.

[Just Regular]

For me it is less about would a Urias-Mayo or Urias-Norby switch change us from a .590 to a .580 team for a while, but who is the 9th guy in tournament lineups, and how are we preparing them?

Maybe the strong early 2024 data from O'Hearn and Cowser mean the A team for October given health is set with Holliday in for Urias relative to a lineup we might see tonight, and everyone else tie goes to keeping your trade value maximized.

I thought Jerry Dipoto let slip to all of us that 54% is the sweet spot

 

[Matt Bennett]

1 hour ago, Bemorewins said:

You wrote a lot here and I appreciate your willingness to clearly express your opinion. I will try to respond as best I can.

1. There is absolutely no guarantee that Norby or Mayo, will out play and out hit Urias right now. What we do know with a much higher degree of certainty is that neither will give you the same level of defense. Or anywhere close for that matter. Norby is not really killing it right now at AAA. He's slashing .274/.346/.487/.833. And this is his third go round at AAA (not 3 hole seasons but parts of 3 including all last year). While those numbers would be excellent at the Major League level, what would you project that the translation of those numbers would produce in terms of output at the Big League level?

2. You state that the Orioles need to get better because their opponents are outscoring them in 35- 40% of their games. What would be the goal 30%? 20%? 15% Less? Because if you win at a 60% clip (outscoring your opponents) that is 97 wins. If you outscore your opponents at a clip of 65% that is a 105 win team. How much are we going for/think is realistic?

3. You state that Henderson and Westburg did well immediately. I guess you would have to define "well". All you have to do is a quick search of Gunnar on this board or the game threads from this time last year. And most posters/fans wanted to send him back down to AAA. Westburg had a solid season at the Major League level last season and OPSd .715. If we could get that out of Norby or Mayo this year, that would be great. But that is far from a guarantee.

4. Lastly, I think the expression "next man up" may work better in terms of a football terminology than a baseball one. Because pro football is driven by one position. Where many of the other positions players can be interchangable and the team can still find success as long as the QB plays well. Baseball not so much. It requires more contributions from several different players on the team regardless of one player's greatness (Ohtani/Trout). 

5. Let's say Norby comes up and holds his own. What are you going to do with him when Holliday is inevitably ready? Use him as the short side of platoon/bench player? Trade him? Something else?

I’m really not the one pounding on the table for a Norby/Mayo promotion. Mayo’s 89 games in AAA isn’t a ludicrous stay there and I’m skeptical Norby can contribute enough on either side of the ball in the bigs. Basically I just wanted to point out that the team can always get better. Winning 18 of 28 games is not an acceptable reason to make a change, if there is one to be made. You say nothing is broken, but Urias is broken. He has been and is a problem. Just because the team is winning at .600+%, doesn’t mean you don’t try to replace bad production with good production. It’s the same argument you heard from Frazier defenders when Westburg was knocking on the door. Maybe the answer to the Urias problem is to keep giving Urias at-bats. I’m starting to doubt it but I’m not ready to cut him. Cleary the front office is ready to give a prospect a chance to supplant Urias (Holliday). Maybe a Norby or Mayo won’t squander their opportunity. 

And Yeah, the Orioles could have more than 18 wins if Urias had been better. The goal is to win as many games as possible. Urias has been a glaring liability. There’s no guarantee Norby/Mayo would be better. But that’s true of every prospect and at some point you have to take that chance if the major league production isn’t good enough. And below replacement level isn’t good enough. 

As a last point, again I don’t care what OH posters wanted to do with Henderson:

2022 Aug/Sep/Oct: 128 wRC+

2023 Mar/Apr 2023: 96 wRC+
2023 May: 103 wRC+

This is not the profile of a player you are demoting. Henderson started off hot, then cooled off into a league average contributor for a couple months. Before obviously exploding into the rookie of the year and MVP candidate we see now. It’s a ridiculous case to send this player to the minors.