This offensive style is not sustainable

[LGOrioles]

7 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some awful numbers:

OPS under 600:  Hays, Urias, Mullins and McCann.  356 PA. That is 19% of the teams PA.

17 players have come up and had at least 10 PA.   11 of them have an OBP of 295 or less.

McCann is on pace for 248 at bats, which is 41 more than last year. He has yet to walk, his OpS is well under 600 and he has a negative WAR.

Speaking of a negative WAR..McCann is joined by Hays and Urias as below replace level guys…combining to be worth -1.3.

Hays has a wRC+ of 16 and -.7 WAR.

As a team, they have the second worst BB% in all of baseball.

Adley is on pace to walk 34 times. He walked 92 times last year and 65 the year before (in less than 400 at bats).  He had the most balls called strikes last year (or second most) and I’m wondering if he’s trying to be ultra aggressive because of it?  Either way, he’s not a good enough hitter to not walk.

 

Adley might be the most disappointing part of the offense for me just due to what we expect out of him. If you told me Mullins, Hays, Urias, and McCann would all be hitting like this I would be surprised but not shocked. If you told me that Rutschman’s BB rate was 5%, his K% would increase by 4%, his whiff rate would increase by 5%, and his chase rate would increase by almost 10%, I would be shocked.

His xWOBA went from 93rd percentile to 73rd percentile too. His new “approach” isn’t working and the lineup desperately needs him to be more patient. He’s only swinging at pitches in the zone and edge pitches 1% more. The real difference is that he’s swinging at 7% more meatballs (which is good) and he’s chasing out of the zone way more. Being aggressive in the zone is fine (which he is doing on meatball pitches) but selling out on pitches that aren’t in the zone doesn’t make much sense. 

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

where are they in xBA?

11th

[Sports Guy]

Perhaps the most confusing thing to me is how often McCann is playing.  It just makes no sense and with June being what it is, that doesn’t figure to improve either. 
 

 

[baltfan]

15 minutes ago, LGOrioles said:

Adley might be the most disappointing part of the offense for me just due to what we expect out of him. If you told me Mullins, Hays, Urias, and McCann would all be hitting like this I would be surprised but not shocked. If you told me that Rutschman’s BB rate was 5%, his K% would increase by 4%, his whiff rate would increase by 5%, and his chase rate would increase by almost 10%, I would be shocked.

His xWOBA went from 93rd percentile to 73rd percentile too. His new “approach” isn’t working and the lineup desperately needs him to be more patient. He’s only swinging at pitches in the zone and edge pitches 1% more. The real difference is that he’s swinging at 7% more meatballs (which is good) and he’s chasing out of the zone way more. Being aggressive in the zone is fine (which he is doing on meatball pitches) but selling out on pitches that aren’t in the zone doesn’t make much sense. 

Meh, a week ago he was hitting .320.  It's early in the season.  There are ups and downs.  And as for everyone saying that the players are being too aggressive, they aren't doing anything that the Orioles aren't telling them to do.  Perhaps they have information that shows that if they are not aggressive early that the trade off of them being vulnerable when down in the count is not worth the trade-off.  Anyhow, as I have said, I think teams have adjusted and the Orioles will in turn adjust.  

[Moose Milligan]

34 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Some awful numbers:

OPS under 600:  Hays, Urias, Mullins and McCann.  356 PA. That is 19% of the teams PA.

17 players have come up and had at least 10 PA.   11 of them have an OBP of 295 or less.

McCann is on pace for 248 at bats, which is 41 more than last year. He has yet to walk, his OpS is well under 600 and he has a negative WAR.

Speaking of a negative WAR..McCann is joined by Hays and Urias as below replace level guys…combining to be worth -1.3.

Hays has a wRC+ of 16 and -.7 WAR.

As a team, they have the second worst BB% in all of baseball.

Adley is on pace to walk 34 times. He walked 92 times last year and 65 the year before (in less than 400 at bats).  He had the most balls called strikes last year (or second most) and I’m wondering if he’s trying to be ultra aggressive because of it?  Either way, he’s not a good enough hitter to not walk.

 

This is a really good post that dives in to why the bats are so cold.  19% of the plate appearances going to guys with an OPS under .600 is terrible.  

IMO, Urias is a better player (like most players) when he gets consistent at bats, but that's not afforded to him in this current situation.

 I'm not ready to write off Mullins but we're in a season where we're gunning for a playoff berth and he can't continue to provide such a low OPS for much longer. 

McCann is getting too many at bats, I didn't realize he was on pace for more than last year. 

Hays, IMO, is what he is and has been for awhile. 

These things said, these guys can't continue to generate 19% of the plate appearances for the team at the rates they're currently at.  They need to be replaced, some sooner, some later but we can't expect to have consistent offense with them.  Hays and Mullins in particular have been bad to borderline awful since the 2nd half of last year.  That small sample size is growing and growing.

Adley is his own problem but at least he's getting hits and getting on base that way.  Not walking, not using that skill he has is disappointing but if his batting average hovers around .300 for the year, it's not so bad.

Anyway, if someone's looking for culprits as to why the offense has been so terrible, this is a good place to start.  

 

[baltfan]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Perhaps the most confusing thing to me is how often McCann is playing.  It just makes no sense and with June being what it is, that doesn’t figure to improve either. 
 

 

When McCann plays it is to give Adley a rest.  They believe McCann + Adley is superior to Worn Out Adley + Alternative DH over the course of a season.

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, baltfan said:

When McCann plays it is to give Adley a rest.  They believe McCann + Adley is superior to Worn Out Adley + Alternative DH over the course of a season.

That's unfortunate that they believe that.  I'm on record as liking McCann but he's still getting too many at bats.  

[baltfan]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

That's unfortunate that they believe that.  I'm on record as liking McCann but he's still getting too many at bats.  

I tend to agree with you that I would rather have Adley catch an additional 10 games and maybe have complete rest days more often vs. DH.

[RZNJ]

50 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Adley is on pace to walk 34 times. He walked 92 times last year and 65 the year before (in less than 400 at bats).  He had the most balls called strikes last year (or second most) and I’m wondering if he’s trying to be ultra aggressive because of it?  Either way, he’s not a good enough hitter to not walk.

 

Could be right and yet, his OPS+, OPS, WRC+, home runs, RBI, etc., are on pace or better than his career averages.   So, up to this point he is a good enough hitter not to walk as much.  

[Aglets]

Only the White Sox and the Marlins are walking at a lower rate than we are right now.   Really shocking.

We avg 2.57 walks per game so far right now.   In 2022 that number was 2.94 (17th in MLB) and last year it was 3.16 (good for 21st).

So we have kinda always been a 'below average walking team" since we've been good in the Elias era.   But now we are almost dead last.  Definitely cause for concern, granted we all know that walks aren't everything.   

Our run production per game has also fallen behind NYY, CLE, and KC in the American League.

[Sports Guy]

14 minutes ago, baltfan said:

I tend to agree with you that I would rather have Adley catch an additional 10 games and maybe have complete rest days more often vs. DH.

His usage should be around 115 games catching and 25 games DH.  

Pinch hitting can occur as well.

 

 

[Frobby]

47 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Btw, they are 26th in all of MLB in team BaBiP, so they have some bad luck on their side too.

I feel like I’ve been seeing a lot of lazyish outfield fly balls lately.  Not hit hard enough to clear fences at that launch angle, and too high a launch angle to fall in for hits.  The Cardinal series seemed full of those.  
 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/16/2024 at 11:01 AM, PeregrineT said:

I mean, Ill be more concerned when this team isnt 4th in the league in scoring.  With the exact same runs per game as last season, in a year where all hitting is down.  With a bunch of young players learning.

Goes to show you even if you become the best team in baseball people will find something to complain about.

How about now?  Are you concerned yet?  This team looks incapable of scoring w/o a home run.  29th in walks is pathetic when the rost has many prospects who were drafted and developed by Elias and we thought we learning plate discipline and controlling the strike zone.  OBP is much more strongly correlated with run scoring than slugging.  Bill James thought a better approximation was having OBP worth twice what SLG towards scoring runs.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I feel like I’ve been seeing a lot of lazyish outfield fly balls lately.  Not hit hard enough to clear fences at that launch angle, and too high a launch angle to fall in for hits.  The Cardinal series seemed full of those.  
 

Definitely has been but this is still a team in the top 3 in EV, hard hit% and barrel rates.  So, they have definitely had some bad luck overall.

[sportsfan8703]

Our OF, Urias roster spot, McCann roster spot, gives us zippy. That’s 6/13 position players.