Keith Law has O's taking Tommy White at #22 in latest mock draft

[RZNJ]

8 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Elias is looking for another Gunnar type HSer.  I'm sure not easy to find that aren't already hyped up.  Would be nice to get a top college arm that could move fast. 

Even Elias would admit they got lucky with Gunnar but at #22, especially in this draft, the chances are a little better of getting an elite talent with a HS player than a college player.   As we saw with Gunnar, there is so much physical development remaining for a 17-18 year old than a 21 year old, that the chance to get lucky is better.   Of course, the chances to whiff on the pick are greater also.   I think they’re in a position to gamble a little in this draft.  I’m just not sure if their process allows for that.  lol

[OsFanInOhio]

10 hours ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Elias is looking for another Gunnar type HSer.  I'm sure not easy to find that aren't already hyped up.  Would be nice to get a top college arm that could move fast. 

Carter Johnson has been compared to Gunnar in a few places, being an Alabama hs ss prospect, well rounded with a good hit tool that could grow into power but has a chance to grow off ss…and he’s reasonably in the ballpark of our comp a pick we got for Gunnar. I’d be pretty excited to get him there after taking our relatively standard productive college bat at 22. 

[Frobby]

My brother-in-law is named Tommy White, so I’m down with it.  

[RZNJ]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

My brother-in-law is named Tommy White, so I’m down with it.  

If Tommy White becomes an Oriole and strikes out with the bases loaded during a family gathering and you scream “Tommy White, you suck! at the TV think of the potential problems.

[ScGO's]

Thought this might be the year we actually see Elias take a college arm in the 1st round

[RZNJ]

8 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Thought this might be the year we actually see Elias take a college arm in the 1st round

I think with the lower picks there’s a greater chance of it.

[ScGO's]

I feel like if he can grab an interesting college arm that can be at AA/AAA by next season, it would be a big boost to the milb pitching depth that we need to build at the top of the system

[OsFanInOhio]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I feel like if he can grab an interesting college arm that can be at AA/AAA by next season, it would be a big boost to the milb pitching depth that we need to build at the top of the system

Is much rather take a guy who has higher upside than someone just someone who will move quickly. We don’t need back end guys. we have povich and McDermott and Seth Johnson in aa and aaa for next year, and we can always sign or trade a free agent. Given the drop off after the top 3 guys I. The draft, I don’t think there is an arm with top half of the rotation potential that moves quickly. By 22 they either will need time to develop or are more likely back end guys. 

[Jim'sKid26]

2 hours ago, ScGO's said:

I feel like if he can grab an interesting college arm that can be at AA/AAA by next season, it would be a big boost to the milb pitching depth that we need to build at the top of the system

So here's a pretty good list of the top College Arms.  https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2024-04-19/top-10-college-baseball-pitchers-midway-through-2024-season

Who do you think falls to #22? I think the first 2 guys will be gone by then.

We can dream on Ryan Johnson from Dallas Baptist, 6'6" 215 lbs. 147 Ks in 100 IP, only 12 BB.

Brett Sears from Nebraska has a bit too much reliver risk for me, but you can't sneeze at 8-0 with a 2.02 ERA.

Arnold, Prager, Holman, and Holiday will all be available at #22.

My personal fav on bottom part of this list is Jonathan Santucci from Duke. 6'2" 205 LHP with a 96 mph 4SFB.  https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jonathan-santucci-695558

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50 

"Santucci misses a lot of bats with his 92-96 mph fastball, creating impressive carry and running action on a flat approach angle from a high arm slot. His low-80s slider can be a wipeout pitch with two-plane break at its best. His fading mid-80s changeup gives him a third weapon, though he doesn't use it very often and can struggle to land it in the zone."

86 Ks in 56 IP. He does walk guys, however (34 BB). Recently had a rib injury that has sidelined him. 

If Ryan Johnson is there at #22, he's the college arm to get IMHO. Santucci is likely available at #32. That would be a solid top of the draft.

[OsFanInOhio]

12 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

So here's a pretty good list of the top College Arms.  https://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2024-04-19/top-10-college-baseball-pitchers-midway-through-2024-season

Who do you think falls to #22? I think the first 2 guys will be gone by then.

We can dream on Ryan Johnson from Dallas Baptist, 6'6" 215 lbs. 147 Ks in 100 IP, only 12 BB.

Brett Sears from Nebraska has a bit too much reliver risk for me, but you can't sneeze at 8-0 with a 2.02 ERA.

Arnold, Prager, Holman, and Holiday will all be available at #22.

My personal fav on bottom part of this list is Jonathan Santucci from Duke. 6'2" 205 LHP with a 96 mph 4SFB.  https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/jonathan-santucci-695558

Scouting grades: Fastball: 60 | Slider: 60 | Changeup: 55 | Control: 45 | Overall: 50 

"Santucci misses a lot of bats with his 92-96 mph fastball, creating impressive carry and running action on a flat approach angle from a high arm slot. His low-80s slider can be a wipeout pitch with two-plane break at its best. His fading mid-80s changeup gives him a third weapon, though he doesn't use it very often and can struggle to land it in the zone."

86 Ks in 56 IP. He does walk guys, however (34 BB). Recently had a rib injury that has sidelined him. 

If Ryan Johnson is there at #22, he's the college arm to get IMHO. Santucci is likely available at #32. That would be a solid top of the draft.

Every mock and prospect rankings  has hagan burns and yesavage gone by pick 13, as the clear ur top 3. Santino had some first round helium early in the season but has fallen off quite a bit (control issues if I remember correctly). I don’t remember any of the others in first round contention unless they are rising a lot the last few weeks. Not sure I’d want any of them at 22. 
 

also, we still haven’t taken a pitcher before comp b. First round in a down year for college pitching seems a stretch. 

[Jim'sKid26]

8 minutes ago, OsFanInOhio said:

Every mock and prospect rankings  has hagan burns and yesavage gone by pick 13, as the clear ur top 3. Santino had some first round helium early in the season but has fallen off quite a bit (control issues if I remember correctly). I don’t remember any of the others in first round contention unless they are rising a lot the last few weeks. Not sure I’d want any of them at 22. 
 

also, we still haven’t taken a pitcher before comp b. First round in a down year for college pitching seems a stretch. 

To be clear, I don't see Elias taking a college pitcher in the first round. I was just responding to ScGo's post.  #22 is a tough place to draft a college arm, I agree.

[ScGO's]

If they do take an arm, I wonder if it will be one of "Elias' guys" that may have not bee profiled as high

[OriolesMagic83]

On 5/24/2024 at 12:29 PM, ScGO's said:

Thought this might be the year we actually see Elias take a college arm in the 1st round

I think Elias is scarred from Houston's failure with pitching in the 1st round.  A failure of a 1:1 pitching pick and another 1:1 pitcher who refused to sign will do that.

[LookinUp]

On 5/25/2024 at 11:21 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think Elias is scarred from Houston's failure with pitching in the 1st round.  A failure of a 1:1 pitching pick and another 1:1 pitcher who refused to sign will do that.

Maybe not. He took a very risky pick last year. Basically found some tools that will carry his floor, but needed a lot to go right to get to the ceiling. A big upside arm could be similar, having a reliever floor if healthy but needing some development to get to the ceiling.

[RZNJ]

3 hours ago, LookinUp said:

Maybe not. He took a very risky pick last year. Basically found some tools that will carry his floor, but needed a lot to go right to get to the ceiling. A big upside arm could be similar, having a reliever floor if healthy but needing some development to get to the ceiling.

Yeah, he may have been scarred by taking pitchers 1:1, but the odds are against you at 1:22 anyway so any pick is risky.   If you miss on a pitcher there it doesn’t hurt as much.    In this case the pitchers at #22 might have more upside than the position players.  Brecht probably won’t be there but Santucci probably will.   Definitely risky but a lot of upside.   I prefer either HS position player or college pitcher at 22.