Gunnar Henderson - What are the chances?

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, Say O! said:

Yeah I am confused as to why SG keeps pushing the narrative of Holliday over Gunnar for SS.  Seems to be enthralled with the #1 prospect sheen, but let’s remember that Gunnar was #1 too and his rise up the system and corresponding prospect rankings was rapid as well.  

It's his belief that you can't put a top prospect at second.

[banks703]

This topic has been beat to s#%*.

I’ve been on record (I’ll toot my own horn for a minute and point out that I’m the first on this board to have suggested that JH would be moved to 2B and still believe the OF is possible) that JH has major holes in his defensive game. Yes, the arm is the biggest concern but it isn’t only the arm for me. He’s extremely stiff in his hips, has trouble fielding (and throwing from) his hand side and gets caught on the in-between hops a bit too much for my liking. If he sticks in the IF it’s at 2B. He’s not moving a 25 year old, potential GG and MVP Gunnar off of SS. Not when the franchise prioritizes defense (see Mateo, Jorge).

It isn’t 0% because stranger things have happened but it’s less than 5%. I’d put it at 2%. Gunnar would have to gain 30 lbs and lost the elite athleticism that he has at 22. That’s not likely to happen. The dude will be entering his legitimate prime years in three years, which, is scary for the league when pointing out how much better he could become.

I’ll suggest that it’s more likely that Holliday is not in the org in ‘26 than it is likely that he pushes Gunnar off of SS. The eyes don’t lie. As a defender, JH isn’t in the same galaxy as Gunnar. 

[jabba72]

Holliday should be getting reps in CF if they dont like his defense at 2nd. I voted 0% only because he's nowhere near Gunnar's level at SS now. Though thinking about it more, Gunnar could bulk up over two years making the move necessary.

[banks703]

24 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's his belief that you can't put a top prospect at second.

If true, that’s pretty silly hill to die on but whatevs. Live and let live. 

[Sports Guy]

It depends on many factors, not all of which are specifically “is Gunnar a better SS”?

[banks703]

2 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Holliday should be getting reps in CF if they dont like his defense at 2nd. I voted 0% only because he's nowhere near Gunnar's level at SS now. Though thinking about it more, Gunnar could bulk up over two years making the move necessary.

He has no reason to bulk. His power is from his hands and hips. If anything, I see him staying about the same weight by adding lean muscle and reducing body fat, which will likely happen anyway as he matures and loses the baby fat that a 22 year who isn’t focused on <10% body fat carries.

I’m sure that he’s as much aware of his losing range as any of us speculate. And he has the benefit of some of the best training and conditioning in the world. If Gunnar knows that he has to maintain his athleticism to stay at SS, I see him doing whatever is necessary to stick there.

Again, 2% chance Holliday pushes Gunnar off of SS and more likely that JH isn’t with the org than it is he pushes Gunnar to third. 

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It's his belief that you can't put a top prospect at second.

That’s not my belief at all.  Stop lying.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

That’s not my belief at all.  Stop lying.

Would you pick a 2B #1?

[Sports Guy]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Would you pick a 2B #1?

It would have to be a weak draft for me to do that.

History of the draft says MLB teams don’t do it either.  I think it’s only happened a few times.

[banks703]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Would you pick a 2B #1?

The O’s did. I’ve never thought that SS was a realistic position for Holliday. Of course you take the best player 1:1 and give him every opportunity to rise through the org as a SS if he shows he can handle it. Once he got closer to the big club though, he was moved. And I believe that was always the plan for him.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, banks703 said:

The O’s did. I’ve never thought that SS was a realistic position for Holliday. Of course you take the best player 1:1 and give him every opportunity to rise through the org as a SS if he shows he can handle it. Once he got closer to the big club though, he was moved. And I believe that was always the plan for him.  

It 100% was not the plan for him.

 

[Sports Guy]

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2022/07/17/orioles-take-oklahome-high-school-shortstop-jackson-holliday-drafts-1st-pick/
 

think the upside for him is enormous,” Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said in a video conference call. “It’s a potential star playing shortstop batting in the middle of the order, doing so for a very long time in some regard. I don’t know that the ceiling gets much higher than somebody with that profile.”
 

Elias, who saw Holliday play three games, expects him to remain at shortstop.

“He does it all,” Elias said. “He throws. He’s a plus-runner. He’s going to hit, hit for power. He’s got the best swing in the draft or one of the best swings in the draft, and he’s got everything in front of him and a tremendous family and support system.

[Moose Milligan]

There’s no “I don’t care” option. 

[banks703]

22 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

https://www.baltimorebaseball.com/2022/07/17/orioles-take-oklahome-high-school-shortstop-jackson-holliday-drafts-1st-pick/
 

think the upside for him is enormous,” Orioles executive vice president/general manager Mike Elias said in a video conference call. “It’s a potential star playing shortstop batting in the middle of the order, doing so for a very long time in some regard. I don’t know that the ceiling gets much higher than somebody with that profile.”
 

Elias, who saw Holliday play three games, expects him to remain at shortstop.

“He does it all,” Elias said. “He throws. He’s a plus-runner. He’s going to hit, hit for power. He’s got the best swing in the draft or one of the best swings in the draft, and he’s got everything in front of him and a tremendous family and support system.

OK? We’ve had this debate and your unwillingness to acknowledge that this is a million % GM Speak (which is odd because you suggest that ME is spewing GM speak as it relates to other players but refuse it when he says it about Holliday) .. is unreasonable.

The reality is that JH in fact does not throw. It’s been well documented around here but even national writers have written about his limitations with the arm. So, was ME wrong about JH’s throwing or was he talking up a prospect?

You love to talk out of both sides of your mouth. 

[banks703]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It 100% was not the plan for him.

 

Interesting. Cause he’s now a 2B. Funny how that happened, right? And between you and me, which one of us was right about that happening, when one of us predicted it last year?