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Trading for Tarik Skubal


Greg Pappas

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7 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

No they don’t …. We had a great shot last year. The Rangers out pitched us in the series and knocked us out. Nobody is winning anything with a gaggle of 5 ERA starters. The good pitchers can shut down good hitters. 
 

The Hangout has been shell shocked by bad luck on the TJ injury front. And boy we’ve had some bad luck. But, diminishing the need for quality starting pitching is not the right approach.

This brings up a good point… Had Bradish and Means both not went down with TJ this year, we wouldn’t have had to make a move for a SP. 

But we have to have some vision and look ahead to who is our Game 3 and Game 4 SP?

We will have a better understanding of who is available on 7/28+. 

Does Elias also upgrade our CF option?  How splashy will he get?

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46 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

I agree with the sentiment. Leads me to believe that a deal will not get done. 

Well it’s why no Skubal trade is likely to happen.

The talk is at least one top 20 prospect.  Every publication has different rankings but most agree on the top 15-20 guys even if they don’t agree on the order.

Right now, these teams have players in that range:

Os, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Tampa, WS, SD, Philly and Ari.

Obviously you can eliminate the Tigers, WS and Tampa.  Chances are, a deal like this wouldn’t happen in the division and I doubt Minnesota would do it anyway, as pitching isn’t really an issue for them.

So, that leaves the Padres, Arizona, Philly, Boston and the Os.

Padres have Salas who has been a big disappointment thus far this year. Arizona has Lawlar is and has been hurt and hasn’t played a lot this year. He obviously could still be of great interest to the Tigers and the DBacks could make a move like this because of guys like Druw Jones and Tommy Troy, so I think they could be one to watch.

The Phillies could do it but pitching isn’t really their issue.  Would they trade the prospects needed to get him?  They certainly could and I wouldn’t count them out, I just tend to doubt it.

So that leaves Boston and us.

So to me, that’s it. There are 4 teams that fit the criteria of needing a consensus top 20 guy and a lot more.

Now, MLB did have HK as a top 20ish guy and you can argue that and maybe that’s enough but I doubt it. I think you need one of the big 3.

The talk of the Dodgers would be more of a quantity and more projection (ie, maybe guys you really like and will be top 100 guys in your eyes but not there yet).

Edited by Sports Guy
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52 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Any deal that is led by Kjerstad is a deal we should jump on….but we aren’t getting him for a deal led by HK and I have yet to see any Tigers fan who would be ok with that.  Most I see think HK should be the second guy.

I think he's probably the best centerpiece after the Big 3 though.    If Kjerstad is tied with Cowser, and Harris concedes about dropping a big 3 requirement, his first step off that might be Kjerstad AND Cowser...

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1 minute ago, Just Regular said:

I think he's probably the best centerpiece after the Big 3 though.    If Kjerstad is tied with Cowser, and Harris concedes about dropping a big 3 requirement, his first step off that might be Kjerstad AND Cowser...

I think pitching is going to have to go back.  Not as a centerpiece but as a supplementary piece.

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6 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think pitching is going to have to go back.  Not as a centerpiece but as a supplementary piece.

So then it becomes, how highly thought of is Povich or McDermott by the Tigers?

If you could do a deal of say Kjerstad, Povich, Bradfield, Norby and Arias(or Dominican lottery ticket insert name here guy). I just can’t see Detroit making that move.

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24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well it’s why no Skubal trade is likely to happen.

The talk is at least one top 20 prospect.  Every publication has different rankings but most agree on the top 15-20 guys even if they don’t agree on the order.

Right now, these teams have players in that range:

Os, Red Sox, Tigers, Twins, Tampa, WS, SD, Philly and Ari.

Obviously you can eliminate the Tigers, WS and Tampa.  Chances are, a deal like this wouldn’t happen in the division and I doubt Minnesota would do it anyway, as pitching isn’t really an issue for them.

So, that leaves the Padres, Arizona, Philly, Boston and the Os.

Padres have Salas who has been a big disappointment thus far this year. Arizona has Lawlar is and has been hurt and hasn’t played a lot this year. He obviously could still be of great interest to the Tigers and the DBacks could make a move like this because of guys like Druw Jones and Tommy Troy, so I think they could be one to watch.

The Phillies could do it but pitching isn’t really their issue.  Would they trade the prospects needed to get him?  They certainly could and I wouldn’t count them out, I just tend to doubt it.

So that leaves Boston and us.

So to me, that’s it. There are 4 teams that fit the criteria of needing a consensus top 20 guy and a lot more.

Now, MLB did have HK as a top 20ish guy and you can argue that and maybe that’s enough but I doubt it. I think you need one of the big 3.

The talk of the Dodgers would be more of a quantity and more projection (ie, maybe guys you really like and will be top 100 guys in your eyes but not there yet).

A very well thought out post. Agree here. 

Why wouldn’t any team selling want a “Soto” like return?  That doesn’t mean they’ll get it. Heck, the CWS asked for Holliday+ last deadline for Cease. 

With all that being said… do we have to just beat the best offers of other teams or do we have to meet the Soto criteria?

We can blow away other teams, but yet fall short of the Soto demand. 

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Anybody think the smoke about Skubal is coming from the Dodgers and/or Orioles trying to put pressure on CWS to be more reasonable in their asks about Crochet?

If those are the two teams that have the motivation and prospect capital to make one of those big deals for Skubal or Crochet, then CWS know that one ending up with Skubal takes them out of the running for Crochet and drives down their leverage with the other.

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3 minutes ago, CaptainRedbeard said:

Anybody think the smoke about Skubal is coming from the Dodgers and/or Orioles trying to put pressure on CWS to be more reasonable in their asks about Crochet?

If those are the two teams that have the motivation and prospect capital to make one of those big deals for Skubal or Crochet, then CWS know that one ending up with Skubal takes them out of the running for Crochet and drives down their leverage with the other.

Hope this is the case. I actually prefer Crochet start of 2025 and beyond. He looks to have more god given velocity.

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4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

A very well thought out post. Agree here. 

Why wouldn’t any team selling want a “Soto” like return?  That doesn’t mean they’ll get it. Heck, the CWS asked for Holliday+ last deadline for Cease. 

With all that being said… do we have to just beat the best offers of other teams or do we have to meet the Soto criteria?

We can blow away other teams, but yet fall short of the Soto demand. 

Well it depends on Det but Det isn’t selling Skubal for the best offer they get. They will sell him for a deal they want. Those are 2 different things.

Det isn’t likely to contend in the next year or so but they could. They have very good young talent and if Jobe can come up and be very good immediately that gives them 2 studs in the rotation.

Their division isn’t the AL East, so who knows.

That said, it’s silly for them to keep him imo. They may get one playoff run with him and that is if everything goes well. 

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What are the Tigers Organizational needs the next 1-3+ years?

SP - They need this back if trading Skubal. 

SS - Baez

3B - Urshela

RF/DH - Perez/Canha

Instead of us just throwing out names. Who actually would they target?

Holliday for SS.  Povich for LHP. Norby for 3B or 2B if Keith can play 2B. Stowers for RF/DH. Maybe they want more pitching in return. DeLeon?

I don’t think they would want EBJ. They have Vierling and Parker Meadows for CF.

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4 minutes ago, Rbiggs2525 said:

Hope this is the case. I actually prefer Crochet start of 2025 and beyond. He looks to have more god given velocity.

Thar guy worries me to no end. I think he is another arm injury waiting to happen. 

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Looking at their needs, now you can why they’d want a package of Holliday, Basallo/Mayo, Kjerstad/Cowser, and Povich/McDermott. 

We’re not giving them that. If they got that package and signed some FA SP in the offseason they could be next year’s Royals in that division. 

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Just now, GoldGlove21 said:

Thar guy worries me to no end. I think he is another arm injury waiting to happen. 

They both should worry you.

Crochet should cost less.

Im actually thinking the best guy to get is Luzardo, who if Miami sells would be more of buying for 75 cents on the dollar and in terms of what you trade and what the upside is, that’s your best odds of  a lot of bang for the buck.

But all of these guys are huge risks, which is why I’m not trading any of our top 3 and yes, those guys are big risks too but they are just not as likely to have major injuries to derail their careers.

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If they want Holliday, Mayo/Basallo, Cowser/Kjerstad, and Povich/McDermott 

could we counter with

Holliday, Cowser, Beavers, Povich, and one of Baumeister, Johnson, or DeLeon. 

We use the 5th player to buy them down to offset the difference of not getting one of Mayo/Basallo as the 2nd piece. 

Why we do it?  We have Skubal, and theoretically don’t have to make a trade for a big time SP this offseason. We still have 

Mayo, Basallo, EBJ. Stowers and Norby have more value to us then they would bring in a trade. 

Mayo comes up for Cowser ASAP post trade. 

Edited by sportsfan8703
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