Trevor Rogers 2024

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Malike said:

Putting any stock into his start tonight, his first day with a new team, a new catcher and not having any time with the pitching coaches is silly. Give him a few turns through the order, then blow your lids, but to do it today is silly.

Yeah, that’s where I am on this.  And remember, this is a longer term play.  The O’s may see things they think they can tweak but all of those tweaks may not occur midseason.   So yes, I’ll start to form an impression based on what happens the rest of this year, but it will take longer than that to fully judge this.  

[kidrock]

1 hour ago, dystopia said:

I think people (deservedly) want to give Elias the benefit of the doubt. 

The fact is though, nothing about this trade makes a lick of sense. Rogers is not good. Elias deserves criticism for this. The Eflin trade was much better.

I admit that I like to give the benefit of the doubt to Elias.  I think he is a solid GM.

- Stowers is very old, Norby is not young

- I'm not thrilled with Norby's defense relative to my expected offensive output for him

- We need starters who can just give a quality start, our pitching has been terrible over the past 6 weeks.  Hopefully Rodgers settles down and makes the necessary adjustments and such.  It may not work out.  But I'm not giving up the Padres haul for Tanner Scott.  Relievers were super expensive.

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Malike said:

Fedde has given up 5 ER in 4 innings against the mighty Cubs. Great trade St. Lous! 

He at least made it through 5!

But seriously, if we had to bet who would have better numbers at the end of the year with their respective clubs: Fedde or Rogers, who are you picking?

[LookitsPuck]

1 hour ago, Allan Bryant said:

He was the guy I hoped they would gotten . My question is, was Elias not interested in him ? Or WSox didn’t like Norby/Stowers  offer ?

What the White Sox got in return was a joke, tbh. What a weird trade deadline for them. 

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, LookitsPuck said:

He at least made it through 5!

But seriously, if we had to bet who would have better numbers at the end of the year with their respective clubs: Fedde or Rogers, who are you picking?

Obviously you'd pick Fedde, based on the results to date.   But you also have to consider that Fedde is a rental, whereas Rogers is under control for 2025-26.  And, we have a lot of pitching needs for next year with Burnes a free agent and Bradish and Wells probably out for the year.

[LookitsPuck]

Just now, Frobby said:

Obviously you'd pick Fedde, based on the results to date.   But you also have to consider that Fedde is a rental, whereas Rogers is under control for 2025-26.  And, we have a lot of pitching needs for next year with Burnes a free agent and Bradish and Wells probably out for the year.

Fedde isn't a rental. He's under control next season, too. For a very reasonable $7.5m. 

[HowAboutThat]

Comment from Steve Adams of MLBTraderumors when asked which Marlins trade he liked the best. Very interesting comment:

 

“On Rogers, I thought either Norby or Stowers alone would be a fair return for Rogers, whose fastball is way down from his 2021 Rookie of the Year runner-up finish. He’s dealt with several injuries in recent years, his slider doesn’t look nearly as effective, and his command has slipped as well. He gives up more contact in the zone than he used to, doesn’t get as many chases as he did during that rookie season, and just generally looks more like a fifth starter than the impact arm he was in ’21.

Norby has a real chance to be an everyday second baseman in Miami. I think Stowers is going to be a strikeout-prone, corner platoon guy, but there’s value in that even if it’s more of a role player skill set. I could see him hitting 20ish homers for the Fish and playing decent right field defense in a platoon role that limits him to around 500 plate appearances in a season. That might not be someone you want to take all the way through three years of arbitration, but he can certainly help in the short term.“

In other words, Rogers is not even as good as Kremer, and we overpaid for him.

Edited August 2 by HowAboutThat

[SouthRider]

I was watching one of the YouTube programs where it was mentioned Elias told Stowers' agent he would try to move him.  Considering Elias also needed to make room to get Holliday up, it makes sense that the trade might be a bit of an overpay. They also mentioned how the Orioles needed to thin the ranks in order to keep better players come rule five time this winter.   

[OnlyOneOriole]

I would have preferred the other Trevor. 

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

Fedde isn't a rental. He's under control next season, too. For a very reasonable $7.5m. 

Thanks for the correction, I had misremembered that.  I guess Rogers does have more years of control than Fedde, but that extra year of Fedde makes him more valuable than I thought.  I'm still somewhat dubious that he's as good as his stats, just because I watched him suck for the Nats for several years.   I kind of had him in the same bucket as Austin Voth, who sucked with the Nats for a long time, caught lightning in a bottle with us for half a season, then reverted to his Nats form a year later (though now he seems to have righted the ship again for Seattle).  

 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, HowAboutThat said:

Comment from Steve Adams of MLBTraderumors when asked which Marlins trade he liked the best. Very interesting comment:

* * * 

In other words, Rogers is not even as good as Kremer, and we overpaid for him.

Well, if Steve Adams said it, it must be true....  

[LookitsPuck]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thanks for the correction, I had misremembered that.  I guess Rogers does have more years of control than Fedde, but that extra year of Fedde makes him more valuable than I thought.  I'm still somewhat dubious that he's as good as his stats, just because I watched him suck for the Nats for several years.   I kind of had him in the same bucket as Austin Voth, who sucked with the Nats for a long time, caught lightning in a bottle with us for half a season, then reverted to his Nats form a year later (though now he seems to have righted the ship again for Seattle).  

 

Oh yeah, I felt the same way about Fedde, believe you/me. But digging into some of the changes he made to his pitch repertoire, particularly adding a sweeper as well as some improvements in velocity to his cutter and somehow better effectiveness to his changeup and sinker...I think the changes are impactful. Now, maybe Rogers could do the same over time, but you already have that reasonably proven out and the advanced metrics show it for Fedde. 

[OnlyOneOriole]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Well, if Steve Adams said it, it must be true....  

I really like Kremer and think he is under appreciated around here.  I think he is a pretty solid 3 and an unbelievably solid 4. 

Edited August 2 by OnlyOneOriole

[RZNJ]

7 hours ago, HowAboutThat said:

It might be over reaction to put too much into one start, but it’s not necessarily under-reaction either.

Last night was terrible, and no mistake. Rogers threw 94 pitches, he wasn’t fooling anybody, gave up a lot of hard contact including 6 hits and 3 walks in 4 1/3 innings.

The defense didn’t help, but the question is whether this performance is in line with Rogers’ median performance.

Some people are angry because Elias had no reason to expect anything other than he got, and spent two worthwhile prospects(and discarded a pitcher, too) to get it.
Even the people who aren’t angry can’t really say more than “wait and see” which is weak sauce when it’s the best thing to say about a significant pickup.

It takes two guys to make a trade, but this really looks as if ME wasn’t willing to pay for a difference maker, so got some kid from the clearance bin.

But he’s the guy we got, so let’s hope next time is better.

Wait and see after one start is weak sauce?   Sounds like you’ve been hitting the sauce.  

[bpilktree67]

The Orioles think they got the guy that in April, June and July pitched to a 3.56 era and 1.30 whip in 15 starts.  Those that are bashing the trade think he is the guy that had a 7.67 era 2.30 whip in 6 starts (5 in May and 1 in March).  So he has been decent in 3 or the 4 months so far and bad in 1 month and 1 start in first start.