Would you say that the Tigers rebuild is more successful than the O's?

[eddie83]

4 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

It's really simple why the Tigers are really good. Their starting pitching and "Chaos" opening/bulk relievers is elite, their relievers are amazing, they have excellent defense, and they have an offense that, while not scary on paper, has come through when it mattered. 

Also, probably not the best to look at entire year offensive numbers when a number of their key players weren't even playing for a good part of the season. They're a big reason for their resurgence. Parker Meadows only played half the season, Greene missed a few weeks, Carpenter missed ~2.5 months. 

You think this opener style will keep working? You think their overall offensive style will result in the same amount of runs? 
 

You described them well but they are still playing over their heads. 

[LookitsPuck]

17 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

You think this opener style will keep working? You think their overall offensive style will result in the same amount of runs? 
 

You described them well but they are still playing over their heads. 

Yeah, I think it'll keep working. It's worked for the Guardians, it's worked for the Rays in the past. It's a strategy that is sustainable with the right staff.

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I'm here for, like, 75% of the emotion behind this post.

The playoffs are random though and what matters is who gets hot at the right time.  Last year, I'm not sure if the time off helped us go cold...but what I do know is that the Rangers caught fire at the right time.  

This year, we were limping to the finish line and limped right through the KC series.  It obviously wasn't our time.

That said, I am exhausted of the constant circle jerk around here in regard to the "talent."  And how important our "talent" is.  And what great "talent" we have.  So far, the "talent" hasn't translated to anything meaningful in October. Right now, we're looking more like the Blue Jays of a few years ago who apparently had so much "talent" and how they were going to be a force to be reckoned with for years in the AL East.  

So I'll say the "talent" is great to have "on paper."  But if it meant trading our "talent" and our "system" for where the Tigers "actually" are right now, I'm leaning towards making that trade.  Not 100% there, but constantly congratulating each other on our "talent" and our prospect rankings and things that sound really nice but really don't mean much in October is - like I said above - exhausting.

I guess my main point is if the Tigers win something this year (like the AL or the WS) then yes, they're ahead of us. 

At the end of the day, the rebuild is to ultimately win the World Series. The fact that they can't even win a playoff game is a failure. 

Now, are we hopeful that the team will be in the mix again next year, sure, and depending on who they pick up pitching wise, I'd say we should expect them to be in the playoffs once again. 

But until this team wins something in the playoffs, all the noise about best farms system and young talent and just that, talk. At some point you have to put up or shut up. 

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, e16bball said:

Sign me up too.

I realize “luck” is a loaded term. Maybe something like “great timing” or “excellent sequencing” or “finding the holes when it really counts” would sound better. Either way, that’s what’s happening. I’m all ears for a different explanation that demonstrates how the Tigers suddenly became a top 4-8 team in MLB, but I don’t think one exists.

This is a team that led MLB in ERA (2.75) from 8/15 on, outpitching their xFIP (3.83) by over a run. They likely did so by ranking extremely high in each of the major indicators of unsustainable pitching success: .249 BABIP (2nd in MLB), 77.1% strand rate (4th in MLB), 8.9% HR/FB rate (3rd in MLB). 

They actually didn’t really hit that well during that span (15th in wRC+ and 15th in runs), but even those mediocre outcomes were inflated by their good “timing” and “aim.” They had a .315 BABIP (3rd in MLB), despite not hitting the ball hard (21st in HH% and 25th in barrels). They had the aforementioned sky-high whiff (26th) and K (27th) rates. They didn’t really hurt you on the basepaths (27th in SBs, 14th in BsR). What they were pretty good at (surprise, surprise) was hitting with runners on base and in scoring position. We know all too well how sustainable that is.

What they are, really, is akin to the 2012 Orioles. A few genuinely really good players, some up-and-coming talents — and a bunch of nobodies playing out of their minds filling in the gaps. Fun story, good group of guys. They had more playoff success than this current team has had. But no one who knows talent would trade the 2023-24 Orioles for the 2012 team. And the same is true of trading the Orioles roster for the Tigers. Talent is what matters in the long haul, not short term heaters or slumps.

EDIT: Sorry, just circle-jerking over here about the “talent.”

Maybe sometimes it's a bit of a talent to find those "nobodies playing out of their mind" vs going out and getting Eloy Jimenez. I get the numbers, but you know what, the winning Orioles teams of the late 70s and early 80s were always "lucky" too. They're numbers never suggested they should win yet they ended up in two World Series and won playoffs games every time they were in the playoffs. 

I get it, they numbers say the Tigers are lucky, and maybe they are, or maybe they do the little things that are not captured well in modern statistics.  

[Tony-OH]

2 hours ago, Safelykept said:

struggling teams? KC  had their Pitching one two lined up for us. Texas ? you might want to check that at the front door, they made a mess of Tampa before us. Do realy believe Tampa was embarrassed having scored one run butgave up 11? It's called closure. Thats what happened to us that last 2 years. So we did not win any games the last 2 years, so what? you would rather lose like we lost in '79?

I do absolutly agree with on JH andthe unspoken Mayo. Nothing short of a disaster.

I absolutely would love to lose like in 1979 right now compared to being totally and utterly embarrassed and disgraced by getting swept out of the playoffs by two wild card teams. 

The only way for this core group to remove the stain of these sweeps, particularly this one against KC is to win the World Series. If they don't, they will be the Blue Jays 2.0. 

[e16bball]

6 hours ago, SteveA said:

And there are also ways of measuring luck.   Hard hit balls that are right at someone, etc.

Now I haven't done the research, but I suspect that if you look at our 5 playoff losses and evaluated things like hard hit balls, you would not find that we were particularly unlucky.   We weren't hitting line drives all over the park that just happened to be right at people for the most part.   A lot of weak flyouts and groundouts.   So that is less attributable to bad luck as it is to just having shitty at bats.

 

I will say, I don’t think the O’s were unlucky in the playoffs. Especially in Game 1, they were mostly just terrible. 

It’s a little bit unusual to have 5 barrels in two games and only walk away with 1 total run, but we all saw it — for a couple months. They were squeezing sawdust out of the bat in any situation where the pressure was high. Guessing, lunging, trying to hit a 6-run homer on every pitch. The KC series was just more of the same. A team that lacked confidence and trust in themselves/each other and just totally messed the bed in situations where we’ve been watching them come through for years. 

That’s not bad luck, that’s just a team in a deep funk that played like absolute ass down the stretch. Saying DET has had good luck is different than saying that the O’s had bad luck, I think. Worse luck than them, sure, but bad luck isn’t the reason our guys failed.

[e16bball]

5 hours ago, LookitsPuck said:

Also, probably not the best to look at entire year offensive numbers when a number of their key players weren't even playing for a good part of the season. They're a big reason for their resurgence. Parker Meadows only played half the season, Greene missed a few weeks, Carpenter missed ~2.5 months. 

I agree with this. I was only quoting the numbers from August 15 on.

[Jammer7]

12 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The current approach of getting really lucky?  Their BABiP are off the charts good and has been for a few months. That isn’t sustainable.

This whole make contact and hope for the best approach isn’t a good approach.

To put a ball in play, you have to put a ball in play. lol

[Jammer7]

I’m with Tony, I just want to win some playoff series’. The coaching shakeup is interesting. 

[Safelykept]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

I absolutely would love to lose like in 1979 right now compared to being totally and utterly embarrassed and disgraced by getting swept out of the playoffs by two wild card teams. 

The only way for this core group to remove the stain of these sweeps, particularly this one against KC is to win the World Series. If they don't, they will be the Blue Jays 2.0. 

what do the phillies need to do remove the stain of their post season collapse this year, not to mention the sh*t disaster of a trade deadline. Remember when they were toast of the town ( they offloaded to crap relievers for a LF upgrade and prospects) Hows that look now? BP gave up 15 runs in 13 innings. I think what they'll do is step off the ledge and go after like big team next year. That's whatwe should do, step off the ledge, were good.

[SilverRocket]

At the end of the day, I don't want the O's to be the situational-hitting, productive-out team. I want the shot of getting two runs in two swings like the Dodgers tonight, even when the bats are cold. I want the version of the O's that hit 60 HR in a month. I don't want the front office to overreact to two months of poor RISP hitting, and thankfully (hopefully) I think Elias knows better and tries to get the team back to what it was in the first half rather than overhaul things.