What the Os did at the deadline will matter

[interloper]

26 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Elias isn’t giving relievers 3+ year contracts. 

I think he would consider 1 3-year contract for a stud reliever. Multiple, definitely not. 

I would sign Scott to a 3/$50 all day. Team needs an answer for the setup spot that isn't Cano or Coulombe. 

[JR Oriole]

Even a few weeks after our season ended, I am still amazed at how boring and weak we were for the last 90 games of the season (including the 2 playoff games). I don't live in Baltimore, but if I did, there would have to be something done to move the excitement needle to get me to the stadium after the way this past season played out. One single (error-aided) walk-off win since May 15. Losing almost every game they played when trailing after 6 innings. Highly touted rookies who are unwatchable at the plate. The offensive tailspin to close out the season. Lame. 

I will never forget when Roberto Alomar signed with us in the 1995/1996 offseason.  Now that was a huge signing and even though we underachieved in 1995 given the talent on that roster, I felt super excited heading into 1996 mainly because of Alomar. And the 1996 and 1997 teams were more entertaining and successful in the postseason than last year's crash and burn Os. When I feel way more confident in Tommy Edman in a big playoff moment than any one of our young talents, that is a problem. 

The attendance at those playoff games was very telling. I don't remember Games 1 and 2 of the 2014 ALDS against Detroit looking that way. So I am hoping something is done this offseason to generate at least a little excitement and hope.

[Just Regular]

59 minutes ago, SemperFi said:

In that scenario what is the marketing pitch to sell or upgrade season tickets?   

-Rubenstein is going to be under pressure to add payroll by MLPA and a very influential faction of owners.  The Orioles have not yet been added to the MLBPA grievance re: teams not spending their revenue sharing funds (Oakland, TB, Pittsburgh, Miami).  This will be a HUGE issue in the next CBA and something  that new ownership given their visibility (both inside and outside MLB) would like to avoid at all costs.

Marketing - rerun that Gunnar Henderson and Cal Ripken commercial a whole lot

From this fan's perspective, it is win-win if Rubenstein makes some kind of notable splash.    I agree Angelos Orioles were close to the worst actors from the MLBPA's perspective.

Ryan Mountcastle, AAA MVP, was a perfect storm of a talented player having his career launch constrained by circumstances.    Him and everyone else who occasionally wears Powder Puff girls suits might have the kind of hard feelings for the Club that Corbin Burnes had for the Milwaukee Club.

A notable splash turns down the heat on Baltimore as a bad actor for the entire union, and maybe even wins a little equity with championship caliber players as a place to stay.    I do still feel like Elias would recommend Bregman above Burnes as a place to invest a bunch of money long term.

[glenn__davis]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I think he would consider 1 3-year contract for a stud reliever. Multiple, definitely not. 

I would sign Scott to a 3/$50 all day. Team needs an answer for the setup spot that isn't Cano or Coulombe. 

Unless I'm wrong, and it's very possible that I am, Mike Elias has yet to sign a single free agent to a multi-year deal.  I believe the last FA we signed to a multi-year deal remains Alex Cobb back in 2018.

All that to say, I'd be pretty stunned if Elias' first significant FA signing is a reliever.

[interloper]

10 minutes ago, glenn__davis said:

Unless I'm wrong, and it's very possible that I am, Mike Elias has yet to sign a single free agent to a multi-year deal.  I believe the last FA we signed to a multi-year deal remains Alex Cobb back in 2018.

All that to say, I'd be pretty stunned if Elias' first significant FA signing is a reliever.

You are indeed correct. This will be the first offseason where he probably has the leeway to sign a free agent for more than 1 year. 

Ultimately, I doubt he does sign a 3-year reliever deal. I just don't think it's out of the question for the right guy. 

[bpilktree67]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You need depth. Lineup and pitching. Pitching more so. There’s a reason that TB and HOU are in the playoffs every year. Depth. Last year was just too much for both of them to finally overcome. 

We need one more pitcher with TOR upside to pair with Grayson, Eflin, Kremer, Suarez, Povich, Rogers, and McDermott. 

Next year is where we could potentially feel the loss of Baumeister and Seth Johnson. More so has deep depth the way McDermott was in 2024. 

I’m hoping for Robbie Ray when we strike out on Burnes. 

Depth can be a lot of things though.  It isn’t necessarily how many injuries you have but whom the injuries are too.  I believe the teams with real good depth have a lot of similar pieces of bench guys, back end rotation guys, and lower leverage guys.  What pretty much no team has is depth to replace your top starters and hitters.  The top rotation guys that can pitch well give you chance every game and eat innings are very rare and about impossible to replace no matter how deep you are.  Looking at the Rays last year they are deepest organization other then Dodgers and they held on awhile.  if your losing 4th and 5th starters and or bottom of the order guys those are replaceable.  You lose your top starters and hitters you can’t replace them.  That is what happened to Braves this year.  It wasn’t they lost lot of guys it was they lost Strider, Acuna, Albies, Riley you just don’t have guys to replace them.  I think most good teams have 1, 2 maybe 3 good starters then you probably have about 4-6 guys in the back end type guys that are pretty similar some just might not have experience.  You can mix and match filling holes for the 4th and 5th starters from that group.  You can’t fill in for a number 1 or 2 guy.  

[webbrick2010]

Wow the deadline that never stops not giving

Not only did Elias not acquire the talent necessary to have a deep playoff run, it seems people are content that he also weakened the roster for 2025

I can hardly believe people are happily planning on a roster that includes Povich, Domiguez, Soto, or especially Rogers, while losing Burns and Santander are gone

Is this just a masochist Oriole Fan thing, that we have to get buy on castoffs from other organizations??

Enjoy watching guys like Kopech, Flaherty, Jazz Chisolm, etc all acquired at the deadline playing in the WS

 

[LookitsPuck]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

Going into 2025 with Povich or Rogers penciled in the rotation would really make me question Elias. This rotation is down Burnes. They're going into 2024 with a currently injured Grayson, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and *potentially* Suarez with the depth being McDermott, Povich, and Rogers. 

That is not a recipe for success. We saw Elias gamble this year by not signing a 5th starter. He arguably got lucky with Suarez, but there were injury question marks aplenty (Bradish, Means, Wells) right from the jump and performance issues (Irvin).

This club needs 2 starters. A top tier and a reasonably reliable, back of the rotation type. There will be injuries. Setup an open competition for the 5th spot. If it ends up being Rogers, OK. But gifting him anything isn't wise.

[UMDTerrapins]

Give me a TOR signing and Bieber and I'll be pretty damn happy with the rotation picture. Getting possibly Bieber and Bradish late in the season is like making your midseason deals in advance. That would give us adequate rotation depth/insurance. And if the rosiest outcome presents itself there's nothing preventing us from selling a rotation arm at the deadline (unlikely though). That also plans ahead for Eflin's departure after next season. 

[oriolediehard]

6 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

Are you saying the O's are not willing to improve this off-season? Do you think Rubinstein is cheap like Angelo's? I think there is no excuse to not try to make a significant improvement.

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Going into 2025 with Povich or Rogers penciled in the rotation would really make me question Elias. This rotation is down Burnes. They're going into 2024 with a currently injured Grayson, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and *potentially* Suarez with the depth being McDermott, Povich, and Rogers. 

That is not a recipe for success. We saw Elias gamble this year by not signing a 5th starter. He arguably got lucky with Suarez, but there were injury question marks aplenty (Bradish, Means, Wells) right from the jump and performance issues (Irvin).

This club needs 2 starters. A top tier and a reasonably reliable, back of the rotation type. There will be injuries. Setup an open competition for the 5th spot. If it ends up being Rogers, OK. But gifting him anything isn't wise.

Then why even have a farm system if you never going to let your young guys get a chance to make the team.  Povich, McDermott, Young should all be all be traded if you just keep signing starters.  You have to give them a chance to learn and adjust at the major league level.  You want options at that spot to give those guys chances not just block them to never get a chance.  

[Fiver6565]

4 hours ago, Just Regular said:

Marketing - rerun that Gunnar Henderson and Cal Ripken commercial a whole lot

From this fan's perspective, it is win-win if Rubenstein makes some kind of notable splash.    I agree Angelos Orioles were close to the worst actors from the MLBPA's perspective.

Ryan Mountcastle, AAA MVP, was a perfect storm of a talented player having his career launch constrained by circumstances.    Him and everyone else who occasionally wears Powder Puff girls suits might have the kind of hard feelings for the Club that Corbin Burnes had for the Milwaukee Club.

A notable splash turns down the heat on Baltimore as a bad actor for the entire union, and maybe even wins a little equity with championship caliber players as a place to stay.    I do still feel like Elias would recommend Bregman above Burnes as a place to invest a bunch of money long term.

I've seen you say this Bregman thing before, and I'm curious what makes you think that beyond the obvious Houston connection.  Bregman is an awful fit for us - we already have a third baseman for one (arguably 2, but that depends on how anyone feels about Mayo at third - plus Urias either way though), and he's a RH hitter in a ballpark that would be terrible for him.  Plus the injury concerns.  I don't get it.

[bpilktree67]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

Going into 2025 with Povich or Rogers penciled in the rotation would really make me question Elias. This rotation is down Burnes. They're going into 2024 with a currently injured Grayson, Zach Eflin, Dean Kremer and *potentially* Suarez with the depth being McDermott, Povich, and Rogers. 

That is not a recipe for success. We saw Elias gamble this year by not signing a 5th starter. He arguably got lucky with Suarez, but there were injury question marks aplenty (Bradish, Means, Wells) right from the jump and performance issues (Irvin).

This club needs 2 starters. A top tier and a reasonably reliable, back of the rotation type. There will be injuries. Setup an open competition for the 5th spot. If it ends up being Rogers, OK. But gifting him anything isn't wise.

You add one number 1 or 2 type starter  so you have Efflin, Free agent, Rodriguez, Kremer and then you have a competition with Suarez, Povich, McDermott, Young Rogers and maybe another minor league guy.   I think some people are gonna have a 32 man roster with signing 2 starters, 2 bullpen guys, a middle of order bat then a right handed outfielder.  

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, oriolediehard said:

Are you saying the O's are not willing to improve this off-season? Do you think Rubinstein is cheap like Angelo's? I think there is no excuse to not try to make a significant improvement.

I didn’t remotely say that.  I’m saying the thought that we add multiple starters and multiple relievers needs to go away.  They have already done some of their offseason work, they just did it in July.

[oriolediehard]

17 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I didn’t remotely say that.  I’m saying the thought that we add multiple starters and multiple relievers needs to go away.  They have already done some of their offseason work, they just did it in July.

If July is all the O's are going to do, then forget the 2025 playoffs.  We are losing Burnes, Santander, McCann, Means and the July moves are to replace our losses, it's ludicrous.  We won't finish at .500 in 2025, maybe worse.