What the Os did at the deadline will matter

[Jim'sKid26]

On 10/25/2024 at 9:36 AM, Sports Guy said:

There has been a lot of talk about signing multiple starters, not picking up options/non tendering guys, etc…

The reality is that what Elias did at the deadline will matter and will be how they construct the roster.

The Orioles are not going to go out and sign 2 starters and risk blocking Rogers or Povich and just having them in the minors.  
 

I do believe they sign one starter and I do think a guy like Bieber, who won’t be pitching in the majors until midway through the season is possible but they just aren’t going to do anything more than that. 
 

Same thing for the pen. The chances are the pen we ended the year with is what we will have in 2025, plus Felix of course.  Maybe they don’t bring back one guy who was on it but that’s about it. 
 

When Elias added Eflin, Rogers, Soto and Dominguez, he spoke about how they liked them because they had control beyond 2024. Dominguez pitched reasonably well, Soto was very good after his first few outings and obviously Eflin was a big pick up.

That really just leaves Rogers. He has options and is making nothing, so obviously he is being brought back.  While it’s possible he starts in AAA, it will be because Povich beat him out.

Now, things could change if we have another pitcher injury during the offseason like we have had the last few years but as of now, the realistic expectation should be 1 starter, 1 reliever (at most) and role players for the offense.  

Rather strange post from you. I've always assumed you were a pedal to the metal kinda guy when it came to talent acquisition. This post seems a bit out of character. Do you know something more you are not sharing?

My take on this, for what it's worth, is that the performance of the team over the second half of the 2024 season and the playoffs was not good. The deadline acquisitions were not impactful enough to move the needle and the team limped into the playoffs and got their ass kicked. Again. Once is an event. Twice is the beginning of a pattern. I think standing pat this off-season might lead to a major front office revision after the 2025 season if the team doesn't improve. Is that a gamble Elias is willing to make when he now has a non-Angelos Family owner with financial wherewithal to compete for the first teir free agents? I think not. 

Smart business people understand when a business model needs a shakeup to get it moving in the right direction. Rubenstein is smart. I am very interested to see what he does this off season. I will be surprised if he stands pat. 

Edited 2 hours ago by Jim'sKid26
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[Satyr3206]

28 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Rather strange post from you. I've always assumed you were a pedal to the metal kinda guy when it came to talent acquisition. This post seems a bit out of character. Do you know something more you are not sharing?

My take on this, for what it's worth, is that the performance of the team over the second half of the 2024 season and the playoffs was not good. The deadline acquisitions were not impactful enough to move the needle and the team limped into the playoffs and got their ass kicked. Again. Once is an event. Twice is the beginning of a pattern. I think standing pat this off-season might lead to a major front office revision after the 2025 season if the team doesn't improve. Is that a gamble Elias is willing to make when he now has a non-Angelos Family owner with financial wherewithal to compete for the first teir free agents? I think not. 

Smart business people understand when a business model needs a shakeup to get it moving in the right direction. Rubenstein is smart. I am very interested to see what he does this off season. I will be surprised if he stands pat. 

I agree. I would be totally shocked if they don't make a big splash this offseason. DR said he isn't getting any younger. I think he bought the Team specifically to win a WS. We will see.

[Sports Guy]

36 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Rather strange post from you. I've always assumed you were a pedal to the metal kinda guy when it came to talent acquisition. This post seems a bit out of character. Do you know something more you are not sharing?

My take on this, for what it's worth, is that the performance of the team over the second half of the 2024 season and the playoffs was not good. The deadline acquisitions were not impactful enough to move the needle and the team limped into the playoffs and got their ass kicked. Again. Once is an event. Twice is the beginning of a pattern. I think standing pat this off-season might lead to a major front office revision after the 2025 season if the team doesn't improve. Is that a gamble Elias is willing to make when he now has a non-Angelos Family owner with financial wherewithal to compete for the first teir free agents? I think not. 

Smart business people understand when a business model needs a shakeup to get it moving in the right direction. Rubenstein is smart. I am very interested to see what he does this off season. I will be surprised if he stands pat. 

Why aren’t people actually reading what I wrote.  Where did you see me say they should and will stand pat?  Can you point that out?

[Too Tall]

6 minutes ago, Satyr3206 said:

I agree. I would be totally shocked if they don't make a big splash this offseason. DR said he isn't getting any younger. I think he bought the Team specifically to win a WS. We will see.

I agree there will be a splash or splashes. OH will definitately debate the size of the spray however. For some it seems like it's Burnes or Bust. Change will come and IMO it will be designed to enhance the core of our team. This is The Elias Hour.

[Allan Bryant]

SG , if Povich , Rogers , McDermott get ‘ blocked’ down at Norfolk, that means Orioles rotation are 1 ) pitching well and 2 ) they’re healthy.  This is one reason why some of us  are advocating for reinforcement pitchers from upcoming free agency . 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

SG , if Povich , Rogers , McDermott get ‘ blocked’ down at Norfolk, that means Orioles rotation are 1 ) pitching well and 2 ) they’re healthy.  This is one reason why some of us  are advocating for reinforcement pitchers from upcoming free agency . 

And they will sign one…they are very unlikely to sign 2 unless someone gets hurt or, Bieber is the other signing.

[Allan Bryant]

9 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

And they will sign one…they are very unlikely to sign 2 unless someone gets hurt or, Bieber is the other signing.

When you said ‘ unless someone gets hurts ‘ , are you referring to offseason training , ST or upcoming regular season ?  

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, Allan Bryant said:

When you said ‘ unless someone gets hurts ‘ , are you referring to offseason training , ST or upcoming regular season ?  

Well since we are talking about the offseason…I’m saying if someone gets hurt this winter, like Bradish this year or Means the year before.

And btw, I’m not even saying they shouldn’t sign2 starters…but it’s justifiable that they don’t and the expectation should be that they won’t. 

[Jim'sKid26]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

Why aren’t people actually reading what I wrote.  Where did you see me say they should and will stand pat?  Can you point that out?

Oh I read what you wrote. As I said, it was a rather strange post. Perhaps, "stand pat," is not exactly what you meant. Only you know that. However, you have implied that a less than provocative strategy by the O's front office is likely. I, and several other posters, disagree with you. Please forgive us if we do not completely comprehend your message. 

Did you "actually read" my post? As you might see, it was not intended to rebut yours. It was a request for clarification. Inexplicably you chose to denigrate my reading skills instead of engaging in a conversation about why you see things the way you do. I take no offense as I'm used to how you roll. Care to expound on your theory?

 

[Just Regular]

Were the Blue Jays ever more than 3-deep with the sons of Biggio, Bichette and Vlad?    We know now Biggio was a total bust.

Vlad and Bo both broke in in 2019 on a 95-loss team - Gurriel, Teoscar and Grichuk were youngish outfielders, Rowdy Tellez was a fun DH.   Freddy Galvis was the SS and Trent Thornton led in innings when Stroman was sent away at the deadline.

They played .530, .560, .570 and .550 ball the four good years, going 0-6 in their playoff games, and having a bad beat as a 91-win 4th place team missing the tournament before this CBA admitted another wildcard for teams like them.

2020 Kirk broke in and 2021 Manoah broke in, and those key supporting players haven't taken great care of their careers.    Rogers Communications spent a ton of money to prop it up, including holding on bravely at the July 2024 trade deadline.

The 2025 Blue Jays in some ways remind me of the 2018 Orioles.   It'd be near impossible to do that bad, but I believe it is in play that Arjun Nimmala is already the centerpiece of the next good Toronto team a ways down the road.

Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Felix, Bradish, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday, Mayo, Basallo - I think the Orioles are more like 10-deep to their 4-deep having guys who look fairly likely to challenge for All-Star berths any given year.     Massive stinkage and all, I think I'd still bet the Over on Coby Mayo at 0.5 AL All-Star appearances as an Oriole.

 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

My take on this, for what it's worth, is that the performance of the team over the second half of the 2024 season and the playoffs was not good. The deadline acquisitions were not impactful enough to move the needle and the team limped into the playoffs and got their ass kicked. Again. Once is an event. Twice is the beginning of a pattern. I think standing pat this off-season might lead to a major front office revision after the 2025 season if the team doesn't improve. Is that a gamble Elias is willing to make when he now has a non-Angelos Family owner with financial wherewithal to compete for the first teir free agents? I think not. 

Smart business people understand when a business model needs a shakeup to get it moving in the right direction. Rubenstein is smart. I am very interested to see what he does this off season. I will be surprised if he stands pat. 

Putting aside the (obviously wrong) assertion that the Royals “kicked our ass,” I’m just not sure I see the similarities between the 2023 postseason and the 2024 postseason that would allow us to draw any conclusion that they’re related or part of any sort of meaningful pattern. 

In 2023, we came in riding high, having beaten the Rays to the finish line. Hottest team in the AL. Pretty conservative deadline. Long break before hosting the ALDS. Hit the ball decently. Pitching imploded. 

In 2024, we came in riding a multi-month scuffle to the finish line. Coldest team in the whole playoffs. Much more aggressive deadline. Jumped right into the wild card game. Couldn’t hit to save our lives. Pitching was incredible.

I mean…what’s the takeaway? Where’s the pattern? Pitching great wasn’t enough to win. Hitting okay wasn’t enough to be competitive. Come in hot, come in cold. Active deadline, slow deadline. Win a dogfight for the division, back in with a wild card. Long break, no break. Best RISP team in the league, one of the worst RISP teams in the league. The only commonality is that both teams lost.

Even the great swoon of 2024 came in two separate and distinct stages. We had two months where the pitching was terrible (5.15 ERA from 6/16 to 8/16), but the hitting was excellent (127 wRC+ in the same span). And then we immediately turned around and had a month and a half, all the way into the postseason, where the pitching was fine (3.93 ERA from 8/16 to end of season), but we couldn’t hit a thing (99 wRC+).

As I said above, I just don’t see the trend line. I don’t see the pattern that “smart business people” would pick up on about the model here. Is there not enough pitching? Didn’t look like it at the end of this year. Is there something wrong with the hitting approach? Sure never seemed that way until two months ago. Do the prospects not translate? Gunnar is an MVP finalist and Adley/Westburg are All-Stars. 

Where’s the crack in the model? Is there a fatal flaw that requires a shakeup? Or has it just been shitty timing, some bad injury luck, and a team built around some kids who haven’t yet been ready for primetime pressure? By how much should 5 games in the postseason outweigh the 445 they’ve played since Adley came up as the vanguard of the Calvary, a period in which they’ve had the best record in the American League?

[Sports Guy]

32 minutes ago, Jim'sKid26 said:

Oh I read what you wrote. As I said, it was a rather strange post. Perhaps, "stand pat," is not exactly what you meant. Only you know that. However, you have implied that a less than provocative strategy by the O's front office is likely. I, and several other posters, disagree with you. Please forgive us if we do not completely comprehend your message. 

Did you "actually read" my post? As you might see, it was not intended to rebut yours. It was a request for clarification. Inexplicably you chose to denigrate my reading skills instead of engaging in a conversation about why you see things the way you do. I take no offense as I'm used to how you roll. Care to expound on your theory?

 

I didn’t imply anything. I was quite clear on what I thought they would sign and that was far from standing pat or anything remotely like it.

If you got from my post that I think they will stand pat, you either didn’t read it or didn’t understand the clear and obvious thoughts in it.  

[Pickles]

17 minutes ago, Just Regular said:

Were the Blue Jays ever more than 3-deep with the sons of Biggio, Bichette and Vlad?    We know now Biggio was a total bust.

Vlad and Bo both broke in in 2019 on a 95-loss team - Gurriel, Teoscar and Grichuk were youngish outfielders, Rowdy Tellez was a fun DH.   Freddy Galvis was the SS and Trent Thornton led in innings when Stroman was sent away at the deadline.

They played .530, .560, .570 and .550 ball the four good years, going 0-6 in their playoff games, and having a bad beat as a 91-win 4th place team missing the tournament before this CBA admitted another wildcard for teams like them.

2020 Kirk broke in and 2021 Manoah broke in, and those key supporting players haven't taken great care of their careers.    Rogers Communications spent a ton of money to prop it up, including holding on bravely at the July 2024 trade deadline.

The 2025 Blue Jays in some ways remind me of the 2018 Orioles.   It'd be near impossible to do that bad, but I believe it is in play that Arjun Nimmala is already the centerpiece of the next good Toronto team a ways down the road.

Adley, Gunnar, Grayson, Felix, Bradish, Westburg, Cowser, Holliday, Mayo, Basallo - I think the Orioles are more like 10-deep to their 4-deep having guys who look fairly likely to challenge for All-Star berths any given year.     Massive stinkage and all, I think I'd still bet the Over on Coby Mayo at 0.5 AL All-Star appearances as an Oriole.

 

Good post.

The Blue Jays references are basically nonsensical and just made for the crying losers to cry loudly and loserly with no coherent point to make.

First, it ignores that the Blue Jays had a pretty successful run, 3 out of 4 years in the playoffs, with the off-year being a 91 win which as you point out would almost certainly results in a playoff berth under current rules.

Second, if the Blue Jays are to be defined as an example of being unsuccessful, then it makes your "argument" (not that you really have one other than wishing to cry and moan) weaker, because they did exactly what you want the Orioles to do.  They signed plenty of FAs.  They brought in Gausman, over 100 million; Bassit, over 20 mil annually; Chad Green, 3 year contract for a bullpen arm; Kikuchi 3 years for a Japanese FA; Springer, 150 million.

Again, it is moronic and nonsensical.  tHe bLuE jAys aRe FaIlUrEs, tHe oS sHoUlD dO wHaT tHeY dID.

The Blue Jays weren't more successful primarily because their own internal players, including Vlad Jr., did not/have not become the players they hoped for.

The same will be true for the Orioles over the next 5 years.  Their success or failure will almost entirely hinge on how Rutschman, Henderson, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, Bassallo and a few others perform/develop.  If most of those guys don't perform as well above average regulars, no vEtErAn bAt is going to make much of a difference.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, Pickles said:

Good post.

The Blue Jays references are basically nonsensical and just made for the crying losers to cry loudly and loserly with no coherent point to make.

First, it ignores that the Blue Jays had a pretty successful run, 3 out of 4 years in the playoffs, with the off-year being a 91 win which as you point out would almost certainly results in a playoff berth under current rules.

Second, if the Blue Jays are to be defined as an example of being unsuccessful, then it makes your "argument" (not that you really have one other than wishing to cry and moan) weaker, because they did exactly what you want the Orioles to do.  They signed plenty of FAs.  They brought in Gausman, over 100 million; Bassit, over 20 mil annually; Chad Green, 3 year contract for a bullpen arm; Kikuchi 3 years for a Japanese FA; Springer, 150 million.

Again, it is moronic and nonsensical.  tHe bLuE jAys aRe FaIlUrEs, tHe oS sHoUlD dO wHaT tHeY dID.

The Blue Jays weren't more successful primarily because their own internal players, including Vlad Jr., did not/have not become the players they hoped for.

The same will be true for the Orioles over the next 5 years.  Their success or failure will almost entirely hinge on how Rutschman, Henderson, Cowser, Kjerstad, Holliday, Bassallo and a few others perform/develop.  If most of those guys don't perform as well above average regulars, no vEtErAn bAt is going to make much of a difference.

I think this is the best post you have ever made.  Really well said.

I think what CoC was saying is that the BJs had good young talent on offense.  The depth of that talent is greatly questioned and yea, their FA signings have larger been failures.

I don’t think people will ever learn that throwing 9 figure deals at aging and soon to be declining players isn’t a smart thing to do…but hey, it makes our payroll number look so much better!  Ownership is trying!!!

[Sports Guy]

6 minutes ago, e16bball said:

Putting aside the (obviously wrong) assertion that the Royals “kicked our ass,” I’m just not sure I see the similarities between the 2023 postseason and the 2024 postseason that would allow us to draw any conclusion that they’re related or part of any sort of meaningful pattern. 

In 2023, we came in riding high, having beaten the Rays to the finish line. Hottest team in the AL. Pretty conservative deadline. Long break before hosting the ALDS. Hit the ball decently. Pitching imploded. 

In 2024, we came in riding a multi-month scuffle to the finish line. Coldest team in the whole playoffs. Much more aggressive deadline. Jumped right into the wild card game. Couldn’t hit to save our lives. Pitching was incredible.

I mean…what’s the takeaway? Where’s the pattern? Pitching great wasn’t enough to win. Hitting okay wasn’t enough to be competitive. Come in hot, come in cold. Active deadline, slow deadline. Win a dogfight for the division, back in with a wild card. Long break, no break. Best RISP team in the league, one of the worst RISP teams in the league. The only commonality is that both teams lost.

Even the great swoon of 2024 came in two separate and distinct stages. We had two months where the pitching was terrible (5.15 ERA from 6/16 to 8/16), but the hitting was excellent (127 wRC+ in the same span). And then we immediately turned around and had a month and a half, all the way into the postseason, where the pitching was fine (3.93 ERA from 8/16 to end of season), but we couldn’t hit a thing (99 wRC+).

As I said above, I just don’t see the trend line. I don’t see the pattern that “smart business people” would pick up on about the model here. Is there not enough pitching? Didn’t look like it at the end of this year. Is there something wrong with the hitting approach? Sure never seemed that way until two months ago. Do the prospects not translate? Gunnar is an MVP finalist and Adley/Westburg are All-Stars. 

Where’s the crack in the model? Is there a fatal flaw that requires a shakeup? Or has it just been shitty timing, some bad injury luck, and a team built around some kids who haven’t yet been ready for primetime pressure? By how much should 5 games in the postseason outweigh the 445 they’ve played since Adley came up as the vanguard of the Calvary, a period in which they’ve had the best record in the American League?

Another great post.  Easily one of my favorite posters on this site.