After Two Weeks of Pie...

[larrytt]

Age is very, very important in determining how good a player can be.

You left out a very important part of my posting you responded to. I wrote, "Relevant ages count only while a player is trying to prove himself at the minor league level." So yes, a younger player will be projected to get better than an older player, on average, if they have the same stats. But in this case, Montanez had THE BEST STATS, period. He won the triple crown. (If there were a 20-year-old who matched him, then he'd be projected as having more potential.) A proven major leaguer couldn't do much better than what he did. As I said earlier, what does he have to do, bat .600? The same logic would always follow him around, that he can't be more than a 4th outfielder because he's 27. The same logic could have been applied to Mora and so many others. (There was a recent discussion of Roberto Clemente; thank god he could play defense, or the world would never know he could hit, since he couldn't really hit until, yep, age 27!)

If a player is 26 playing against mostly 23 year olds, he's going to hit better in general. So that guy putting up big numbers isn't as impressive as the 23 or 21 y/o doing it.

He's doing better than they are because he's better than they are. The younger, weaker players may catch up because they are younger, but the older guy, who won the triple crown, has already reached a level beyond them. If winning the triple crown isn't enough to prove himself, just what does he have to do? (I'm tempted to put together a list of late-blooming players, but it isn't worth the time.)

-Larrytt

[TyCobb]

You also don't build a good team by giving up on good prospects 13 days in, unless you're planning on building via free agency. He's an Oriole, he's 23, and we're not going to contend this year whether it's Pie or Reimold in left field. Why is it so difficult to give a guy a few months to prove something? Yeesh.

Pie is going to be 24 this season. He was a good prospect when he was 22. He isn't a good prospect anymore. Pretty much the only reason why we got Pie for another failed prospect in Olson. Isn't it odd nobody in MLB could top that?

Because jobs are earned not given. Unless you are a great talent (Wieters, Jones, Markakis) you need to show something to earn your name in the lineup.

Reimold has been showing something. So has Lou. Pie hasn't shown anything to us.

[JTrea81]

It's rather astonishing that so many folks are so willing to release a guy because he hasn't hit in the majors at an age where Reimold and Montanez were playing in the minors, and not well enough to merit a callup. Montanez had a mid-600s OPS in AAA at 24, while Reimold hit .284/.367/.501 in AA.

Before the Cubs started jerking Pie around he had similar numbers in AAA at 22 to what Montanez did in AA at 26.

It's not just the hitting, it's the combination of that with poor defense. I think we could live (or at least I could) with Pie struggling at the dish if he was superior in the field as advertised, but he's showing incompetence in the field as well.

The only tool he's showing is speed. And there are plenty of burners in baseball. That doesn't mean they are full time players.

[larrytt]

He's gonna have to do more work to earn a spot than those guys, and he should, because he hasn't accomplished what those guys did in the minors.

They (Pie and Reimold) won the triple crown???

It took Montanez a long time to reach this level, but his current level is what counts, not how long it took him to reach it. Otherwise we'd have to bench a LOT of stars who took a while to reach the higher levels. The point is he did reach that level. Do you really believe the average 4th outfielder in the majors could win the triple crown at AA? Highly unlikely.

-Larrytt

[TyCobb]

It's rather astonishing that so many folks are so willing to release a guy because he hasn't hit in the majors at an age where Reimold and Montanez were playing in the minors, and not well enough to merit a callup. Montanez had a mid-600s OPS in AAA at 24, while Reimold hit .284/.367/.501 in AA.

Before the Cubs started jerking Pie around he had similar numbers in AAA at 22 to what Montanez did in AA at 26.

Well last season Reimold and Montanez were much better than Pie who played in PCL.

[Mackus]

He's doing better than they are because he's better than they are. The younger, weaker players may catch up because they are younger, but the older guy, who won the triple crown, has already reached a level beyond them. If winning the triple crown isn't enough to prove himself, just what does he have to do? (I'm tempted to put together a list of late-blooming players, but it isn't worth the time.)

-Larrytt

Winning the triple crown at AA as a 26 y/o is not enough to prove that he's going to be a good MLB player. It just isn't. He's gotta have a solid season at AAA against pitchers that have pitched in MLB and other better prospects than he saw at AA. He doesn't have to win the Triple Crown, but he's gotta hit at least as well as someone like Oscar Salazar.

I'm not saying Montanez can't become a solid player. I don't think he will, but I'm not arrogant enough to say I know he never well (as many people apparently can do with Pie). But if he does, it will come through a fairly long road, similar to Luke Scott who either you or someone else brought up earlier.

He's not going to get the golden opportunity that Pie is getting now, Markakis and Jones got before, and Reimold will get if/when Pie's turn is up. He's not a good enough prospect to merit that sort of special treatment. He'll be up at some point this year as the 4th OF, and if he hits well in the opportunities he does get (would have to do better than last year, a 98 OPS+ from a poor defensive LF isn't gonna cut it), he'll see his role increase. Follow Luke Scott's career path. That should be Montanez' goal at this point. He's not a prospect. He's a journeyman. He's not even in the JR House / Jon Knott boat. Those guys hit great at AAA multiple years in a row. Lou has had one great season as a senior citizen in AA and two good weeks at AAA. He's gotta do a whole lot more than that before people should start taking him seriously as a guy with a legit chance to be more than a role player.

[Mackus]

They (Pie and Reimold) won the triple crown???

It took Montanez a long time to reach this level, but his current level is what counts, not how long it took him to reach it. Otherwise we'd have to bench a LOT of stars who took a while to reach the higher levels. The point is he did reach that level. Do you really believe the average 4th outfielder in the majors could win the triple crown at AA? Highly unlikely.

-Larrytt

Pie and Reimold both have far better minor league track records, relative to their ages which is very important, than Montanez.

And yes, I think an average 4th OF could win the Triple Crown at AA. Maybe not every year, but in a hot year, and a guy like Montanez who can hit a fastball but struggles with better, more experienced pitcher, could do that fairly often. Look at guys like Knott and House. There are tons of guys who rake at AA and AAA but can't hang in the majors. Its not highly unlikely at all, its pretty damn close to probable.

[larrytt]

You don't build a good team by relying on outliers. You can count the number of players in history who were generic utility players at 28 and MVP candidates by 32 on one hand. Maybe a couple of fingers.

But the case of Montanez is different because of his great hitting stats, with the triple crown at AA, something even Mora (and most other prospects) never come close to doing. Mora bloomed as a hitter after age 30, and literally forced the O's to start him. Montanez is in a similar situation, except he's doing it three years younger than Mora, and he's doing it at AA, now at AAA, and last year he did pretty well at the major league level. If we were relying on 27-year-olds with "good" stats (the type that would get a 22-year-old noticed), that's one thing, but we're talking much better numbers. He no longer is an "outlier" except that his stats are "outliers" because they are so strong.

-Larrytt

[J.D.]

Pie is going to be 24 this season. He was a good prospect when he was 22. He isn't a good prospect anymore. Pretty much the only reason why we got Pie for another failed prospect in Olson. Isn't it odd nobody in MLB could top that?

Because jobs are earned not given. Unless you are a great talent (Wieters, Jones, Markakis) you need to show something to earn your name in the lineup.

Reimold has been showing something. So has Lou. Pie hasn't shown anything to us.

The reason we got Pie is because Chicago is a contender and couldn't afford to let Pie develop in the majors. Since he was out of options, they had to move him. They wanted Olson because they felt that they could turn Olson into something else that they wanted.

I can't say "small sample size" enough when it comes to Reimold and Montanez. As Drungo pointed out, Pie was doing what these guys are doing in the minors right now at a significantly younger age. I really hope you guys don't turn on other 24-year olds struggling in their first full seasons as quickly as you have on Pie.

There's zero reason not to give Pie an extended look to see if he can reach his ceiling, which is higher than both Reimold's and Montanez' ceiling. An extended look isn't two weeks.

Also, funny how no major league team wanted Montanez either. I guess he's awful. We picked Guthrie up off of waivers. He must have been pathetic, too.

[JTrea81]

You truly don't get how bad that argument is, do you? I traded X for Y. I valued X at the time and so did the team that acquired X which is how I was able to get Y for X, but X is now doing badly so therefore I shouldn't care whether I get anything for Y at all. I mean seriously. That is about as poor an argument as it gets. Please tell me that your wife or a friend or someone else manages your assets for you. Seriously, this is just an awful, awful sequence of "logic" on your part.

Have you ever heard the term "a wash?" They do happen in professional sports...

It was a gamble that didn't work, so you let Reimold have his chance. If Reimold tears it up or performs better than Pie which he likely will, what exactly have you lost?

The faith that people have put into Pie because of his 2007 season in AAA is amazing.

[J.D.]

Well last season Reimold and Montanez were much better than Pie who played in PCL.

Pie was in AAA and was 23.

Reimold was in AA at 24. Montanez was in AA at 26.

[larrytt]

Yes, every one of them did exactly that.

"Exactly" that? Okay, now you're just having fun.

If you mean that rhetorically, of course there are going to be players who have great minor league stats who don't make it in the majors. But that's what the minors are for - finding the really good hitters there - like Montanez - and seeing if they can do it at the major league level. The ones who win triple crowns in the minors will tend to do a LOT better at the major league level than all the rest who do not. There's only one way of finding out. Not giving him a change because he's 27 is not the way to find out. (As I noted earlier, the main problem with giving him a shot is that there is only one open spot, LF, and multiple prospects for that spot, including one who's out of options.)

-Larrytt

[TyCobb]

The reason we got Pie is because Chicago is a contender and couldn't afford to let Pie develop in the majors. Since he was out of options, they had to move him. They wanted Olson because they felt that they could turn Olson into something else that they wanted.

I can't say "small sample size" enough when it comes to Reimold and Montanez. As Drungo pointed out, Pie was doing what these guys are doing in the minors right now at a significantly younger age. I really hope you guys don't turn on other 24-year olds struggling in their first full seasons as quickly as you have on Pie.

There's zero reason not to give Pie an extended look to see if he can reach his ceiling, which is higher than both Reimold's and Montanez' ceiling. An extended look isn't two weeks.

Also, funny how no major league team wanted Montanez either. I guess he's awful. We picked Guthrie up off of waivers. He must have been pathetic, too.

That isn't my point. The point is NO OTHER TEAM STEP UP to beat that offer. If he was such a talent as you guys think he is there would have been teams lined up to put him on the bench to work out until he can play CF.

Do you guys know who the CF for the New York Yankees is? Brett Gardner. The Yankees didn't think Pie was worth an upgrade over Brett Gardner.

[Mark Carver]

He's doing better than they are because he's better than they are. The younger, weaker players may catch up because they are younger, but the older guy, who won the triple crown, has already reached a level beyond them. If winning the triple crown isn't enough to prove himself, just what does he have to do? (I'm tempted to put together a list of late-blooming players, but it isn't worth the time.)

-Larrytt

Dan Thomas at the age of 25 won the Eastern League Triple Crown in 1976, his 2nd full year at AA ball.... now you say who?

Eastern League History

In the history of the Eastern League only five players have managed to win the "Triple Crown" (lead the league in home runs, RBI, and batting average). The most recent winner of the Eastern League Triple Crown came during the 2008 season when Bowie Baysox outfielder Lou Montanez batted .335 with 26 home runs and 97 RBI. Other Eastern League Triple Crown winners include Joe Munson of the 1925 Harrisburg Senators (his .400 average is still the league's single season record), Bob Chance of the 1963 Charleston Indians, George Scott of the 1965 Pittsfield Red Sox and Danny Thomas of the 1976 Berkshire Brewers.

Dan Thomas minor league stats.

[Fairfax Bird]

It's not just the hitting, it's the combination of that with poor defense. I think we could live (or at least I could) with Pie struggling at the dish if he was superior in the field as advertised, but he's showing incompetence in the field as well.

The only tool he's showing is speed. And there are plenty of burners in baseball. That doesn't mean they are full time players.

I actually agree with you that he is killing us right now. But lets be serious, it is April 20th, we are 6-7 after having faced three of the top teams in the league and one with the best offense. The world is not coming to an end. We have to allow him the opportunity to get this right. Now, I don't agree with everyone that we just give him the "lost year" to figure it out, but a good 250 ABs will tell us what we need to know. It is April 20th, give the man some time.