From Keith Law a few minutes ago about the draft today . . .

[Lucky Jim]

The college pitchers available in this draft other than Strasburg would all be a mistake at the #5 pick IMO, and I don't even like Strasburg as anything but a future trade chip.

The HS arms are much more projectible and have less mileage and are a better bet to develop into top flight starters.

As long as we don't take a college arm with the #5 pick, I'll feel fine with Jordan's judgement, be it Wheeler, Matzek, Turner or Miller.

Of course I'm praying and hoping that we get a chance to take Ackley...

How many HS arms have the O's turned into MLB pitchers? And why does your rule against toolsy HS position players not apply here, where our track record is equally dismal?

[Frobby]

Crow's delivery scares me. We can't afford to blow this pick.

I don't think I can stress this enough. We need a home run.

I hate to tell you this, but there are no no-brainers at no. 5 this year. Whoever is picked will bring some risk with him.

[JTrea81]

How many HS arms have the O's turned into MLB pitchers? And why does your rule against toolsy HS position players not apply here, where our track record is equally dismal?

How many college arms have they turned into MLB pitchers?

This club hasn't had a first round pitching success since Mike Mussina. I don't like taking prep pitching, but that's all that's really worthy of the pick if Ackley doesn't fall.

For the record I am against taking Tate at the #5 pick as well, so the rule still applies.

[JTrea81]

I hate to tell you this, but there are no no-brainers at no. 5 this year. Whoever is picked will bring some risk with him.

There is always risk with any draft pick, but you have to minimize that risk with the first round pick as much as possible if you are the Orioles.

I don't see any delivery issues as far as future injury problems with any of the top HS arms while the top college arms have much more injury potential.

[Sports Guy]

Crow is the same as a lot of these guys...He is a risky pick.

Personally, I would go with lower risk + solid reward, which is why I would take Green if he can stay at SS.

If there are no doubts about him staying at SS, that should be the pick IMO.

If he can't, then the Orioles should take the pitcher they feel the most comfortable about, even if it isn't the big HS name or someone like that and that brings it back to a guy like White...Who is probably a "safe" pick.

I have no problems with them going for a safe pick here because it sounds like everyone could end up really good or flame out quickly.

[allstar1579]

Who should we have taken instead of Avery then?

He'll ignore you, cause he has no idea. Then he will go look back at draft results and see if he has heard of anyone taken after him.

To really stick him, let's ask him who we should pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and then see when they are taken tonight to see if he's even in the ballpark.

[allstar1579]

Crow is the same as a lot of these guys...He is a risky pick.

Personally, I would go with lower risk + solid reward, which is why I would take Green if he can stay at SS.

If there are no doubts about him staying at SS, that should be the pick IMO.

If he can't, then the Orioles should take the pitcher they feel the most comfortable about, even if it isn't the big HS name or someone like that and that brings it back to a guy like White...Who is probably a "safe" pick.

I have no problems with them going for a safe pick here because it sounds like everyone could end up really good or flame out quickly.

You keep saying IF he can stick, but there are always going to be questions about it, every level he moves up will be harder, I would plan that he can't and then treat it as such because at this point I give it 65/35 that he sticks.

White is far from safe, his draft status right now hinges on him hopefully regaining the slider he showed last year, and working out whatever mental block he has right now.

[JTrea81]

To really stick him, let's ask him who we should pick in the 2nd and 3rd rounds and then see when they are taken tonight to see if he's even in the ballpark.

Luke Bailey and Kyle Seager.

[Lucky Jim]

How many college arms have they turned into MLB pitchers?

This club hasn't had a first round pitching success since Mike Mussina. I don't like taking prep pitching, but that's all that's really worthy of the pick if Ackley doesn't fall.

For the record I am against taking Tate at the #5 pick as well, so the rule still applies.

You don't get it. You can't say "we shouldn't take toolsy HS position players because we have a bad track record" and then recommend projectible HS arms when we have an equally bad track record.

Do you place any value whatsoever in internal consistency?

[Lucky Jim]

There is always risk with any draft pick, but you have to minimize that risk with the first round pick as much as possible if you are the Orioles.

I don't see any delivery issues as far as future injury problems with any of the top HS arms while the top college arms have much more injury potential.

Where did you train so that you might see this?

[waroriole]

There is always risk with any draft pick, but you have to minimize that risk with the first round pick as much as possible if you are the Orioles.I don't see any delivery issues as far as future injury problems with any of the top HS arms while the top college arms have much more injury potential.

Why is this moreso with the Orioles? You continuously state these absolute conclusions, but provide no proof to back up your conclusions. So why is this so important for the O's?

[Lucky Jim]

The draft is the sole pipeline of talent for this team other than trades, and our trade chips aren't that plentiful or as appealing as they used to be.

The Orioles need as much talent as they can get to compete with the other teams in the AL East as they need talent for the ML team and talent to stockpile for trades.

Every draft pick counts, and the first round pick is the most important as it represents the best opportunity the Orioles have at a top young player.

Blowing a first round pick and really any high round pick sets the organization behind as you can see from the numerous draft picks we've blown during this 11 year losing streak.

1. Untrue.

2. How does stating the obvious support your point?

3. No #$%^.

4. So your estimation of the danger inherent in one draft pick not working out is somehow based on years of drafting futility? If anything, history shows us the opposite: we've gone from one of the worst (perpetually) systems in baseball to one of the best in a period of about five years - and, in fact, accomplished much of that in a period of three years. So tell me, if you can turn around that quckly after 10 years of neglect, why is the 1st round pick so ohmygodtheskywillfall important all asudden?

You rely on one false premise - that the draft is our only hope - and then surround it with a alternating obviousness and conjecture and then - apparently - feel like you've contributed to an intelligent dialogue. Far from it. You really drag down the quality of (rational) discussion on this board.

It's easy to admire your enthusiasm. But a dollop of self-awareness (and the silence it would trigger) might be nice, too.

Address, please.

[Sports Guy]

You keep saying IF he can stick, but there are always going to be questions about it, every level he moves up will be harder, I would plan that he can't and then treat it as such because at this point I give it 65/35 that he sticks.

I keep saying if because I haven't seen him...I have seen BA compare his SS abilities to Tulowitski and I have seen some say he can't stick there...Jordan and his scouts have to be able to figure this out...If they feel he sticks at SS, then to me, he has to be the pick.

White is far from safe, his draft status right now hinges on him hopefully regaining the slider he showed last year, and working out whatever mental block he has right now.

Well, big question on White is this...Can he regain his slider with the ML baseball?

Guys like Craig Hansen and Ryan Wagner were never able to get the slider they showed in college because of the ball differences...If there is question about White being able to do that, then he really shouldn't be the pick.

BTW, the idea that they use different balls is one of the dumbest things in sports(same with the NFL using different balls than college).

[McLovin]

Personally, I would go with lower risk + solid reward, which is why I would take Green if he can stay at SS.

If there are no doubts about him staying at SS, that should be the pick IMO.

I don't know much about the draft prospects. In terms of pitchers, if there are no Loewen/Matusz types available at #5, I'd rather see them go with a college SS prospect who could play soon. So I would concur. Even if it's 5 slots or so too soon for Green.

I don't like the idea of a HS first rounder. I'd rather see Bundy/Beal picks later in the draft than a big up front commitment at #5.

[allstar1579]

Luke Bailey and Kyle Seager.

The catcher about to miss part of next season with TJ surgery and the guy you wanted at 2:5 but Stotle told you it was too early, so you bumped him to 3rd?

Ok, it's on record.