Anyone still want to make a compelling argument against rebuilding?

[ColumbiaOriole]

Tell me again how you get out of these contracts or utilize these player an better? Complaining about these guys does no good. Finding a solution to the situation the O's are in is what needs to be done.

Are these bad contracts. Sure. Now what?

Eat money and free up roster space. Trade our few players of value for a quantity of talented young players. I would utilize Payton better by only playing him against LHP's. I would've utilized Gibbons better by not playing him at all. Of course, I never would've signed that garbage to begin with. As has been pointed out, for the most part, we need to eliminate this middle class of vets whom are overpaid. It's silly to find cheaper alternatives that could've been better such as Knott and House and then sign guys like Payton and Bako because the average fan has heard of them thereby rendering Knott and House almost useless.

[cindyluvsbrady]

I think it's become clearer than ever that Tejada and Roberts need to go and Bedard should be shopped aggressively. Matter of fact if they are on the team next year I am going to be mad.

None of these should be traded!

[Ohfan67]

We can debate a rebuild all we want, but a major rebuilding will NOT take place this year. Angelos wants to win, MacPhail wasn't hired to oversee a long-term rebuild, etc. I predict the payroll increases by 20 million and they try to fix things with FA and a few trades, including perhaps trading Miggy. But they are not going to gut the team. It's not going to happen.

And as a long-suffering Orioles fan I don't want a complete rebuild. I wanted one three years ago, five years, hell eight years ago, but not now. It's too late. They are going to have to spend a lot of money and improve via a mix of free agency, developing young players, and a few trades. But I don't want to wait three more years to win.

[Sports Guy]

We can debate a rebuild all we want, but a major rebuilding will NOT take place this year. Angelos wants to win, MacPhail wasn't hired to oversee a long-term rebuild, etc. I predict the payroll increases by 20 million and they try to fix things with FA and a few trades, including perhaps trading Miggy. But they are not going to gut the team. It's not going to happen.

And as a long-suffering Orioles fan I don't want a complete rebuild. I wanted one three years ago, five years, hell eight years ago, but not now. It's too late. They are going to have to spend a lot of money and improve via a mix of free agency, developing young players, and a few trades. But I don't want to wait three more years to win.

This plan will likely sink us further.

We may get better for a year or 2 but we will almost undoubtedly be worse long term.

[DrungoHazewood]

We can debate a rebuild all we want, but a major rebuilding will NOT take place this year. Angelos wants to win, MacPhail wasn't hired to oversee a long-term rebuild, etc. I predict the payroll increases by 20 million and they try to fix things with FA and a few trades, including perhaps trading Miggy. But they are not going to gut the team. It's not going to happen.

And as a long-suffering Orioles fan I don't want a complete rebuild. I wanted one three years ago, five years, hell eight years ago, but not now. It's too late. They are going to have to spend a lot of money and improve via a mix of free agency, developing young players, and a few trades. But I don't want to wait three more years to win.

I don't want to look back in three years and see yet another patchwork team with a minor league system decimated by losing draft picks from signing a bunch of free agents that pushed the Orioles to 83 wins.

It's never too late to do things the right way.

[mweb]

Here's my thoughts on the various topics of this thread:

We should rebuild, however there is a decent chance that doesn't pan out the way we would hope, I would take our chances doing that over what we've been doing though.

Being a GM is a difficult job.

NMS overestimates this board with his percentages. Do you read some of the posts on here NMS? Some on here probably could be at least decent GM's.

Signing guys like Baez, Payton, Bako, etc is a big problem for the O's, they just don't make any sense for a team in our situation, actually they don't make sense for a team in any situation.

[Ohfan67]

This plan will likely sink us further.

We may get better for a year or 2 but we will almost undoubtedly be worse long term.

You're right to some extent, although spending money on free agents and producing young talent is in no way mutually exclusive (e.g., Altanta Braves and even the MF Yankees). But it doesn't matter what's best in the long term because Angelos isn't going to blow things up and start over.

[Sapper]

You're right. If Millar, Hernandez, Payton, Tejada, Roberts, Huff, and Mora buck the trends and don't fall off next year. If Bedard and Guthrie continue to pitch as well as any two starters in the majors. If the Orioles can find a center fielder. If they can capably find someone to take Trachsel's innings. If July is somehow more representative of this team's ability than the other four months of the season. If, if, if, if...

If they don't make major changes at key positions this winter they'll have lost ground compared to spring 2007. They'll be older at many spots, while hoping that everything falls into place so they can win 82 games.

Funny how the guys who can't stand me in April start sounding just like me in August.

[Ohfan67]

I don't want to look back in three years and see yet another patchwork team with a minor league system decimated by losing draft picks from signing a bunch of free agents that pushed the Orioles to 83 wins.

It's never too late to do things the right way.

I really think it is for Angelos. I think he wants to win before his ownership ends and he wants to win to redeem himself with the city. Of course I could be wrong, but all the data over the last ten years suggests that they will not committ to a long-term rebuild. They will keep Bedard and Roberts. They will try to trade Miggy (maybe) and definitely players like Cabrera. But I think they will try to solve most of the current problems via free agency...and from a financial model this might be the way to go. If they can win for two or three years and rebuild the fan base, then that might be the best financial strategy. Get those MSN ratings up, sell some tickets to the yard. I think that's what they are going to do.

[twoBshorty]

I support a full firesale. I want to do what the Florida Marlins did in the '05 offseason, only improve upon it because presumably our owner, for all his faults, is willing to spend more than $20 million on payroll. Go all the way and blow the whole thing up. It'll likely be a 4-5 year process, but we've been through 10 of these seasons already, what's a few more?

My problem is that I have absolutely no faith in anyone in the organization, to do this right. This front office is Dumb & Dumber, and I've seen nothing yet from MacPhail or in his past that makes me believe he's anything more than another too-conservative MLB toady. Signing Wieters was great, but it's a drop in a very large bucket. I have no confidence that anyone in the Warehouse knows how to evaluate talent. If they did, why is our roster loaded down with garbage when we could get better garbage for less money? They got us into this mess, why should they be able to get us out of it? Correct talent evaluation is the key to successful rebuilding, IMO, and I don't think anybody knows how. And I can't even remember the last time we made a good trade, one that was executed efficiently (without rumors of other GMs complaining about how nobody ever called them back) and for maximum return. Why should I trust that they can do this when they haven't shown that they can do anything else?

[Sports Guy]

So, there you go. We're battling for the wild card if nothing changes except the pen. That isn't minor, but it puts all these other arguments that the whole team must be replaced in perspective.

Not it doesn't...Not even close.

Look at the offense. There are so many guys on the offense that are having horrible years and many of them may not bounce back.

[clapdiddy]

Before I get yelled at about guys like Payton, I don't think signing guys like Payton have anything to do with this process. I think he is a placeholder until we have a better option. He is overpaid, but the expenditure for him doesn't limit us in spending in other areas IMHO so it isn't a huge deal.

I think we could've gotten just as much, and probably more, production from a left-handed hitting OF/Knott platoon as we're getting from Payton.

You kind of knock down your own argument when you say that Payton is a "placeholder" player. The fact is he's LESS than a replacement player. This would have been the perfect time for them to experiment with a low cost platoon, yet they didn't do it because Payton is a "name" player.

[theobird]

Tell me again how you get out of these contracts or utilize these player an better? Complaining about these guys does no good. Finding a solution to the situation the O's are in is what needs to be done.

Are these bad contracts. Sure. Now what?[/quote/]

I know what would happen in any business I have ever been associated with. First of all, as many of the poor commitments as possible would be dispersed. In this case traded, released....whatever. If you had to include cash in the trades to minimize the loss, you do it. You have an unworkable situation, you realize it. And you start over with a sound plan to succeed.

Secondly, you identify the people directly responsible for the assembly of said situation, and you cut your losses with them as well. The most costly factor here is the opportunity cost. The opportunity to put a good product out. The opportunity to succeed. The opportunity to win. The delay of sound management principles collides with exponentially increased cost. Reference 10 years of management incompetence in the case of the Orioles. And the really bad news is that the MacPhail hiring is just more of the same, IMHO. But thats another subject.

The good news is this: The City of Baltimore is still in love with their Birds. Which is really amazing if you think about it, and take into account all that PA has done to break our hearts. If, by some stroke of luck, he actually hired a GM with the ability and the authority to do the right thing....The people of Baltimore would pack OPACY every night and all would be forgiven.

[Sports Guy]

The point which you absolutely refuse to acknowledge is that this team would be a borderline wild card team this year with no other changes except a good bullpen. Our hitting isn't great this year, but it is sufficient IF we get excellent pitching.

Ok, so if we basically lead the league in pitching, we can maybe compete with our offense....Boy, i feel a lot better now!

OK, maybe we should trade one of our few commodities for Sexson, pay him 14 million, and hope he bounces back. Apparently, he has superball qualities, but these other guys are made of lead

The difference is Sexson has been pretty good recently, is in a great pitchers park, is still hitting homers and could represent draft picks for us....He is also only here for one year and i have never said we should give up much for Sexson by himself...But don't let that stop you.

[DrungoHazewood]

One thing that amuses me is that virtually the whole line up is performing below expectations this year YET some of us expect them to be worse next year. I'm not sure how that is even possible. You act as if 12 months of age equates to a 10% decrease in production just because the player is over 27 years old. It isn't nearly that linear. You have to look at each player and decide if they are declining or having a bad year.

6 weeks ago most of the people on this board were screaming about Huff being done. Funny, I haven't seen that much lately.

There's a good chance they're no better next year because a lot of players in their 30s like Huff or Payton or Hernandez decline and never bounce back. The O's have several players who're outpacing my expectations, like Millar and Mora, who'll be doing very well to repeat those seasons at a year older. They have to fill a hole in center. Huff would have to repeat his August in September to get anywhere close to an average 1B/DH for the year, and he's in the same boat as Millar and Mora.

I think there's more potential for decline than improvement out of the offensive side of the roster. Markakis may be the only hitter on the roster who has much better than a 50-50 chance of improving on this year's performance.