BA's Carolina League Top Twenty

[QBsILLEST1]

I think Britton is a hard case. The fantastic GB% and the increasing K-rates are big pluses. I think, too, that the fact his only solid plus pitch isn't a swing-and-miss pitch is a problem for him in rankings. It's tough for scouts to see TOR upside when he's getting away with swings and misses based on other components...he's not showing that transcendant/dominant trait inherent in TOR starters. And scouts are wary of projecting that a guy who relies heavily on a low quality of batted balls will continue to be able to induce low-quality batted balls.

Double AA is very important for Britton. More important is the progress of his slider (so that it makes it to solid above-average/flash plus) and his change-up (to solid average).

If that's the case, I think you'll see the K numbers continue to improve, the GB rates continue to be excellent, and the scouts begin to discuss him with other top prospects.

The fact is, his results have often outstripped his pure stuff. And that's a good thing, provided the stuff is improving (and it appears to be).

I think the disparity between posters here and those outside is simply this: while we're optimistic based on our experience that Britton will continuously improve stuff-wise, scouts are more agnostic (and/or empirical). Britton needs to prove that, to them. And that's fair.

If BA made the same assumptions we do, then he'd clearly be a top-10 guy in the Carolina League.

And, of course, I love what they wrote about Matusz.

Well, I agree with just about everythign you said. His slider does flash plus at times, he just needs to get it to be more consistent. But like I said I agree with everything else you say here, hes hard to guage, just like Bergy was. And ill tell you right now about Bergy, I dont consider him a top prospect but he was IMO underrated. Maybe its because pitchability has no real way to measure it statistically, and IMO that is where he makes up for average stuff, along with excellent command. As for Britton, I honestly think when all is said and done, like you said what your looking for, I thnk he will have the plus sinker, plus slider and a solid average possibly better changeup. It is clearly evident though that his pitches have been steadily improving since day 1, as his K's and periphs get better and better each level he jumps. It cannot be understated to that he apparently has a good appraoch and good pitchability. I personally think that Britton may fly under the radar forever, but IMO hes gonna turn out slightly better than Bergy.

Side note~ Now that everyone sees a true report on Britton, IMO it just got a whole lot tougher to put him ahead of Arrieta as our #2 pitching prospect...

[Stotle]

Well, I agree with just about everythign you said. His slider does flash plus at times, he just needs to get it to be more consistent. But like I said I agree with everything else you say here, hes hard to guage, just like Bergy was. And ill tell you right now about Bergy, I dont consider him a top prospect but he was IMO underrated. Maybe its because pitchability has no real way to measure it statistically, and IMO that is where he makes up for average stuff, along with excellent command. As for Britton, I honestly think when all is said and done, like you said what your looking for, I thnk he will have the plus sinker, plus slider and a solid average possibly better changeup. It is clearly evident though that his pitches have been steadily improving since day 1, as his K's and periphs get better and better each level he jumps. It cannot be understated to that he apparently has a good appraoch and good pitchability. I personally think that Britton may fly under the radar forever, but IMO hes gonna turn out slightly better than Bergy.

Side note~ Now that everyone sees a true report on Britton, IMO it just got a whole lot tougher to put him ahead of Arrieta as our #2 pitching prospect...

Yeah, Matusz/Arrieta are pretty clear 1/2. I'd have Britton at 4, possibly 5 or 6.

[Stotle]

Britton at #15 is a complete joke and a travesty. It really shows you they have some crazy vendetta on him. I'll have plenty to weigh in with shortly, because some of these names on the list are laughable in my opinion, but maybe it's just based off their "guidelines".

I certainly respect your opinion and your proximity to the team. That said, it would sort of have to also be a bias held by the scouts in the league and by the other coaches in the league, no? Seems like a stretch.

[Frobby]

I think he's the type of prospect that is easy to get excited about because you can see improvement. I also think he's overrated by a fair amount on this site. To me, he looks like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid #4 projection (that's an improvement for me, as last year I thought he looked like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid bullpen projection). Hopefully he keeps improving, but there is nothing wrong with him turning out to be a #3/#4.

It's tough to develop a front-end starter, which is why I'm such a big proponent of not skimping on the draft and bringing in quality HS arms whenever possible.

Are there a lot of people saying Britton will turn out to be more than a no. 3 starter? I haven't seen a lot of posts saying so. Tony last year ranked him "middle of the rotation starter" and said "[h]is ceiling is a Zack Duke type of starter, but even if his changeup doesn't improve there's no reason he can't have a Scott Eyre type of career." I think Britton's stock went up in 2009, but I haven't heard anyone projecting him to be an ace. This summer after seeing Britton pitch Tony wrote a pretty glowing report, but it still concluded, "Britton needs to continue to improve the command of his off speed pitches, but I could easily see him as a left-handed workhorse starter in the middle of a major league rotation."

What's really going on here, I think, is that people are generally underrating the value of a no. 3 (or "middle of the rotation") starter. Contrary to popular belief, they don't grow on trees. Give me a pitcher who can throw 180 IP to an ERA of 4.50 (which is my idea of no. 3 level performance) and I can put that guy in any rotation in the major leagues - not necessarily in the 3 slot on every team, but somewhere.

So, I don't think it's inconsistent to be very excited about Britton and yet project him to have a ceiling of "only" a no. 3 starter (or a "solid # 4 projection" as you put it).

[wickedwitch]

I certainly respect your opinion and your proximity to the team. That said, it would sort of have to also be a bias held by the scouts in the league and by the other coaches in the league, no? Seems like a stretch.

I do agree that OH overrates Britton, but coaches and scouts are human. They, by definition, are biased. They can be influenced by plenty of things that aren't related to the quality of a prospect. They probably have favorite teams that could cause them to overrate someone or even underrate someone in an attempt to neutralize his or her bias. Maybe certain prospects have gotten more exposure because of where the prospect was drafted or because of media coverage.

[QBsILLEST1]

Are there a lot of people saying Britton will turn out to be more than a no. 3 starter? I haven't seen a lot of posts saying so. Tony last year ranked him "middle of the rotation starter" and said "[h]is ceiling is a Zack Duke type of starter, but even if his changeup doesn't improve there's no reason he can't have a Scott Eyre type of career." I think Britton's stock went up in 2009, but I haven't heard anyone projecting him to be an ace. This summer after seeing Britton pitch Tony wrote a pretty glowing report, but it still concluded, "Britton needs to continue to improve the command of his off speed pitches, but I could easily see him as a left-handed workhorse starter in the middle of a major league rotation."

What's really going on here, I think, is that people are generally underrating the value of a no. 3 (or "middle of the rotation") starter. Contrary to popular belief, they don't grow on trees. Give me a pitcher who can throw 180 IP to an ERA of 4.50 (which is my idea of no. 3 level performance) and I can put that guy in any rotation in the major leagues - not necessarily in the 3 slot on every team, but somewhere.

So, I don't think it's inconsistent to be very excited about Britton and yet project him to have a ceiling of "only" a no. 3 starter (or a "solid # 4 projection" as you put it).

Well, the thing is, when people are nearly unanimously saying that Britton is a better pitching prospect than Arrieta, and Arrieta is a 2/3(Many will disagree, but I still see Jake's ceiling as a #1, if all 4 of his pitches come toegther as well as his command, he will be a #1, just has minimal chance of reaching that ceiling) with better stuff, IMO thats where the overrating comes. Arrieta has a higher ceiling and projection. Britton on the other hand has an absolute ceiling IMO of a #2, but thats only if his slider and changeup come all the way around. I see him more or less as a #3 starter...

And yes people are underestimating the value of a #3 starter. I consider Guthrie in his prime a very strong #3 starter. I dont think anyone would be upset if he turned into a Guthrie....

[Frobby]

I do agree that OH overrates Britton, but coaches and scouts are human. They, by definition, are biased. They can be influenced by plenty of things that aren't related to the quality of a prospect. They probably have favorite teams that could cause them to overrate someone or even underrate someone in an attempt to neutralize his or her bias. Maybe certain prospects have gotten more exposure because of where the prospect was drafted or because of media coverage.

What's a little hard to fathom is, here's a guy who was named CL pitcher of the year, and he's only 21 years old which is young for the league, so how can he be only the 15th best prospect in the league? It seems odd. Of course, you have to take into account that some of the prospects ranked above him weren't in the league long enough to be considered for pitcher/player of the year, like Matusz for example.

[Stotle]

Are there a lot of people saying Britton will turn out to be more than a no. 3 starter? I haven't seen a lot of posts saying so. Tony last year ranked him "middle of the rotation starter" and said "[h]is ceiling is a Zack Duke type of starter, but even if his changeup doesn't improve there's no reason he can't have a Scott Eyre type of career." I think Britton's stock went up in 2009, but I haven't heard anyone projecting him to be an ace. This summer after seeing Britton pitch Tony wrote a pretty glowing report, but it still concluded, "Britton needs to continue to improve the command of his off speed pitches, but I could easily see him as a left-handed workhorse starter in the middle of a major league rotation."

What's really going on here, I think, is that people are generally underrating the value of a no. 3 (or "middle of the rotation") starter. Contrary to popular belief, they don't grow on trees. Give me a pitcher who can throw 180 IP to an ERA of 4.50 (which is my idea of no. 3 level performance) and I can put that guy in any rotation in the major leagues - not necessarily in the 3 slot on every team, but somewhere.

So, I don't think it's inconsistent to be very excited about Britton and yet project him to have a ceiling of "only" a no. 3 starter (or a "solid # 4 projection" as you put it).

I'm very excited about Britton as a 3/4. I think if you search Britton you'll see plenty of people who were possibly expecting more. Adam himself has stated that he thinks BA's rating is laughable, and he's probably seen more of Britton than anyone. Further, wasn't there a pretty lengthy discussion somewhere in the minors section as to whether or not Arrieta or Britton was the top pitching prospect behind Matusz?

The purpose of my post wasn't an "I told you so" -- I don't think I've said much on Britton, though I could be wrong. I was simply pointing out my take and my perception of how others have recently described Britton. If you think it was an unfair characterization, it certainly wasn't my intent.

[Frobby]

I'm very excited about Britton as a 3/4. I think if you search Britton you'll see plenty of people who were possibly expecting more. Adam himself has stated that he thinks BA's rating is laughable, and he's probably seen more of Britton than anyone. Further, wasn't there a pretty lengthy discussion somewhere in the minors section as to whether or not Arrieta or Britton was the top pitching prospect behind Matusz?

The purpose of my post wasn't an "I told you so" -- I don't think I've said much on Britton, though I could be wrong. I was simply pointing out my take and my perception of how others have recently described Britton. If you think it was an unfair characterization, it certainly wasn't my intent.

No, I wasn't reading your post as an "I told you so." And I do think that there is some discussion going on of whether Britton now ranks ahead of Arrieta -- which is partly an upgrade in poeple's opinion about Britton, but also partly a downgrade in people's opinion about Arrieta. I think Arrieta's middling results in AAA and his general failure to pitch deep in games this year has people thinking he may have been a tad overrated. For those of us who don't know scouting but can read statistics, Britton's line at Frederick compares pretty decently with Arrieta's from last year, especially when you factor in that Arrieta was 22 last season and Britton is only 21 this year. At the same time, if someone like you gives me some reasons why Arrieta's stuff still outstrips Britton's and is likely to lead to better success at the major league level, I'm not really in a position to argue with you. (Though Tony may.)

[Stotle]

No, I wasn't reading your post as an "I told you so." And I do think that there is some discussion going on of whether Britton now ranks ahead of Arrieta -- which is partly an upgrade in poeple's opinion about Britton, but also partly a downgrade in people's opinion about Arrieta. I think Arrieta's middling results in AAA and his general failure to pitch deep in games this year has people thinking he may have been a tad overrated. For those of us who don't know scouting but can read statistics, Britton's line at Frederick compares pretty decently with Arrieta's from last year, especially when you factor in that Arrieta was 22 last season and Britton is only 21 this year. At the same time, if someone like you gives me some reasons why Arrieta's stuff still outstrips Britton's and is likely to lead to better success at the major league level, I'm not really in a position to argue with you. (Though Tony may.)

Eh, I probably underrated Britton last off-season, and have told Tony as much. I think it's worth noting that Arrieta's AA peripherals were better than Britton's HiA peripherals. If Britton can step up and do what Arrieta has done at AA, then I think he has a case for being rated ahead of Arrieta. For now, I think Arrieta's stuff is a tad better across the board, and he's seen success at a higher level. I think age matters, but not enough to overtake what Arrieta's accomplished.

Full disclosure -- I haven't seen Arrieta pitch since (I believe) July, so could be he has regressed. Didn't see Britton throw this year, so I'm going on old video and reports I have read regarding his stuff.

[Frobby]

Eh, I probably underrated Britton last off-season, and have told Tony as much. I think it's worth noting that Arrieta's AA peripherals were better than Britton's HiA peripherals. If Britton can step up and do what Arrieta has done at AA, then I think he has a case for being rated ahead of Arrieta. For now, I think Arrieta's stuff is a tad better across the board, and he's seen success at a higher level. I think age matters, but not enough to overtake what Arrieta's accomplished.

Fair enough. I like both. Stockstill was quoted as saying that Arrieta was working on some things while at Norfolk, so we shouldn't really be concerned with his stats there:

“Jake Arrieta has had an outstanding season. He is a young man who only had 1/2 season of pro baseball before this season due to the Olympics last year. He made very good progress in the things with his delivery that we asked him to work on in Bowie and has continued to make progress in Norfolk. Sometimes, while you are working on changes, no matter how slight they are, you do not have immediate, positive results. Jake has gone through some of this in Norfolk and has handled it very well and his last few games he has really been outstanding.”

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/08/few-more-questions-with-mr-dave.html

[QBsILLEST1]

Fair enough. I like both. Stockstill was quoted as saying that Arrieta was working on some things while at Norfolk, so we shouldn't really be concerned with his stats there:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/08/few-more-questions-with-mr-dave.html

Its so nice to read that from Stockstill. I wonder if he was working on arm slot or if he was working on his offspeed stuff. Regardless, I agree that Jake has better stuff. His fastball slider combo IMO trumps Britton's. On top of that, Jakes curve and change up IMO are average ML pitches, where it appears that Britton's change up is below average. And as its been mentioned here, Jake's ceiling is high because he can still imrpove those 2 other secondaries and paired with a 96 MPH heavy fastball and plus slider, he can become a #1. He definitely has the intangibles that would make a #2 a #1 IMO....

[Stotle]

Fair enough. I like both. Stockstill was quoted as saying that Arrieta was working on some things while at Norfolk, so we shouldn't really be concerned with his stats there:

http://baltimoresportsandlife.blogspot.com/2009/08/few-more-questions-with-mr-dave.html

Thanks for posting -- it would be pretty incredible if BAL was able to fully cash in on the ATM. It'd be impressive to hit on all three.

[QBsILLEST1]

Thanks for posting -- it would be pretty incredible if BAL was able to fully cash in on the ATM. It'd be impressive to hit on all three.

Nice! The ATM. It would be pretty amazing for all 3 to come through. I cant wait to see Jake blowing guys away. Im just imagining how good Hernandez woulda been if he had a consistently plus slider and 2 other average ML pitches and Jake's mentality.

I personally would love to be able to view both Hernandez and Arrieta's fastballs through PITCH F/X. Im under the impression that Jake throws a tad bit harder and his fastball has more movement on it....

[Tony-OH]

All I will say is that I like Britton a whole lot and think a lot of scouts still don't value guys who are groundball machines. I actually agree with the BA's write up on Britton and I agree with Stotle that he's most likely a middle of the rotation guy. I just happen to think he has a ceiling of a solid number two if his changeup improves.