BA's Carolina League Top Twenty

[alexei606]

Only Matusz at #2 and Britton at #15 made the Carolina League top 20. The Red Sox had two in the top 10 and five total.

Matusz and Britton write-ups:

2. Brian Matusz, lhp, Frederick (Orioles)

Age: 22. B-T: L-L. Ht.: 6-5. Wt.: 200. Drafted: Orioles '08 (1).

Matusz arrived in Frederick with a reputation as a polished pitcher, and he showed why by blowing through the minors and reaching Baltimore in his first pro season. The fourth overall pick in the 2008 draft, he overwhelmed CL hitters with his advanced command and diverse repertoire of above-average pitches.

"He was the best arm I saw this year," a National League scout said. "He's not overpowering, but he had pinpoint command, kept everything low and showed the ability to work the edges of the plate."

Matusz sits at 89-92 mph and touches 94-95 with his fastball. He repeats his clean delivery and spots his heater down in the zone and to both sides of the plate. He commands it well, but his secondary stuff is so advanced that he throws his offspeed pitches nearly as often as his fastball.

His best offspeed pitch is his 81-84 mph changeup, which rates at least a 60 on the 20-80 scouting scale and could be better in the future. His 76-81 mph curveball and low-80s slider give him two good breaking balls that grade out anywhere from average to plus, and both can be out pitches.

Matusz still needs to fine-tune his ability to hold runners as he can be a little slow to the plate. Basestealers stole 21 bases in 25 attempts (84 percent) against him, a high clip, especially for a lefty.

15. Zach Britton, lhp, Frederick (Orioles)

Age: 21. B-T: L-L. Ht: 6-2. Wt.: 172 Drafted: Orioles '06 (3).

Britton continues to fly under the radar, but he won't for much longer if he keeps pitching like he did this season. The CL pitcher of the year, he finished second in the league in ERA (2.70) and strikeouts (131 in 140 innings).

Britton pitches at 88-92 mph with his heavy sinker and tops out at 94 with his four-seam fastball. Britton's sinker is his go-to pitch and he does a good job of pitching down in the zone. Batters struggle to lift his sinker in the air, as evidenced by his 3.38 groundout/airout ratio. He has learned to pitch inside on righthanders with his four-seamer to prevent them from sitting on his sinker on the outer half.

"I liked Britton," a NL scout. "He doesn't necessarily wow you with his fastball, but he's a groundball machine with the ability to miss some bats."

Britton has worked hard to bring his secondary pitches up to par. He has a decent slider, but his below-average changeup still needs more improvement.

[QBsILLEST1]

Only Matusz at #2 and Britton at #15 made the Carolina League top 20. The Red Sox had two in the top 10 and five total.

Matusz and Britton write-ups:

Man, Britton is still low IMO but w/o looking at the entire list Im guessing the league is pretty stacked as was the Eastern League.

[hoosiers]

That league was stacked at the top - Heyward, Matusz, Alvarez, Freeman with Casey Kelly and Moustakas in the top 8.

At least Britton made a list finally. At 15th, Britton was the last of the five pitchers on the list - which means several teams did not place any pitcher.

I thought we had some good years from our hitters, but they'll have to prove it in AA.

No surprises on this list, IMO, but it does hint that Britton is going to be a borderline top 100 guy - if not on the outside looking in. AA is going to be big test for him and the upside to his prospect status as well.

[srock]

Hopefully Britton can bring the change along. Ground ball pitchers effectiveness goes way up when a change up is mixed with the sinker. Turns lots of those hard hit grounders up the middle into weak double play balls.

But, even without it, a decent slider and he could definitely turn into a excellent reliever. In short, he has more ways he can succeed then most in his position. Definitely a good thing.

[CharmCityHokie]

Kinda suprised that Waring isn't on that list, wasnt he the league MVP?

[Stotle]

This list looks pretty good to me. Hopefull Britton keeps improving upon his secondary offerings.

[wickedwitch]

Only Matusz at #2 and Britton at #15 made the Carolina League top 20. The Red Sox had two in the top 10 and five total.

Matusz and Britton write-ups:

So I guess Britton misses BA's top 100 list.

I'm trying to decide if the reason I think Britton is much too low is because I'm completely biased or because he really is too low. The same goes for the absence of both Joseph and Waring. Or maybe it's that Frederick magically brings out the worst in all of the other teams' prospects.

[Frobby]

Not real happy with Britton's low ranking and the exclusion of our other prospects, but I did like this sentence from the write-up:

In Myrtle Beach outfielder Jason Heyward and Frederick lefthander Brian Matusz, the league featured arguably the best hitting and pitching prospects who appeared in the minors in 2009.

[Stotle]

So I guess Britton misses BA's top 100 list.

I'm trying to decide if the reason I think Britton is much too low is because I'm completely biased or because he really is too low. The same goes for the absence of both Joseph and Waring. Or maybe it's that Frederick magically brings out the worst in all of the other teams' prospects.

I think he's the type of prospect that is easy to get excited about because you can see improvement. I also think he's overrated by a fair amount on this site. To me, he looks like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid #4 projection (that's an improvement for me, as last year I thought he looked like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid bullpen projection). Hopefully he keeps improving, but there is nothing wrong with him turning out to be a #3/#4.

It's tough to develop a front-end starter, which is why I'm such a big proponent of not skimping on the draft and bringing in quality HS arms whenever possible.

[NCRaven]

I suspect that the voter's believe Waring is older than the competition his numbers inflated some because of that. I tend to agree. Snyder was even more dominant in AA and is a year younger. I'll be interested in seeing where he stands in the Eastern League rankings.

[Lucky Jim]

I think he's the type of prospect that is easy to get excited about because you can see improvement. I also think he's overrated by a fair amount on this site. To me, he looks like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid #4 projection (that's an improvement for me, as last year I thought he looked like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid bullpen projection). Hopefully he keeps improving, but there is nothing wrong with him turning out to be a #3/#4.

It's tough to develop a front-end starter, which is why I'm such a big proponent of not skimping on the draft and bringing in quality HS arms whenever possible.

I think Britton is a hard case. The fantastic GB% and the increasing K-rates are big pluses. I think, too, that the fact his only solid plus pitch isn't a swing-and-miss pitch is a problem for him in rankings. It's tough for scouts to see TOR upside when he's getting away with swings and misses based on other components...he's not showing that transcendant/dominant trait inherent in TOR starters. And scouts are wary of projecting that a guy who relies heavily on a low quality of batted balls will continue to be able to induce low-quality batted balls.

Double AA is very important for Britton. More important is the progress of his slider (so that it makes it to solid above-average/flash plus) and his change-up (to solid average).

If that's the case, I think you'll see the K numbers continue to improve, the GB rates continue to be excellent, and the scouts begin to discuss him with other top prospects.

The fact is, his results have often outstripped his pure stuff. And that's a good thing, provided the stuff is improving (and it appears to be).

I think the disparity between posters here and those outside is simply this: while we're optimistic based on our experience that Britton will continuously improve stuff-wise, scouts are more agnostic (and/or empirical). Britton needs to prove that, to them. And that's fair.

If BA made the same assumptions we do, then he'd clearly be a top-10 guy in the Carolina League.

And, of course, I love what they wrote about Matusz.

[BringBackMagic]

I think he's the type of prospect that is easy to get excited about because you can see improvement. I also think he's overrated by a fair amount on this site. To me, he looks like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid #4 projection (that's an improvement for me, as last year I thought he looked like a mid-rotation ceiling with solid bullpen projection). Hopefully he keeps improving, but there is nothing wrong with him turning out to be a #3/#4.

It's tough to develop a front-end starter, which is why I'm such a big proponent of not skimping on the draft and bringing in quality HS arms whenever possible.

If we have learned anything this year from Brad Bergesen, it's that rankings mean jack squat. Bergesen was ranked behind Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Hernandez, Erbe and other pitching prospects. Matusz and Tillman both flashed some brilliance in the bigs this year. Hernandez pitched well for a stretch. It was Bergesen that earned himself a spot in the OD rotation next year by throwing consistent innings all year until his injury.

If Britton ends up like Bergesen, flies under the radar and simply gets people out at every level, I'll gladly slot him in the middle of our rotation with confidence.

[Stotle]

If we have learned anything this year from Brad Bergesen, it's that rankings mean jack squat. Bergesen was ranked behind Matusz, Tillman, Arrieta, Hernandez, Erbe and other pitching prospects. Matusz and Tillman both flashed some brilliance in the bigs this year. Hernandez pitched well for a stretch. It was Bergesen that earned himself a spot in the OD rotation next year by throwing consistent innings all year until his injury.

If Britton ends up like Bergesen, flies under the radar and simply gets people out at every level, I'll gladly slot him in the middle of our rotation with confidence.

I guess it depends on how much you value this year's performances when deciding upon the future. I would take Tillman and Matusz over Bergesen without any thought. It's great that Bergy had success, and he looks like a legit ML starter. But I wouldn't expect his performance to continue to outshine the likes of Tillman/Matusz.

Rankings aren't irrelevant -- they are simpl a snap shot of where various players stack up at a given point in time. Players improve and fall-off. Bergy added a curveball and found a high level of success from that point. That doesn't mean people were wrong to question the staying power of a non-CB Bergesen, right?

[AVencill]

Britton at #15 is a complete joke and a travesty. It really shows you they have some crazy vendetta on him. I'll have plenty to weigh in with shortly, because some of these names on the list are laughable in my opinion, but maybe it's just based off their "guidelines".

[Lucky Jim]

Britton at #15 is a complete joke and a travesty. It really shows you they have some crazy vendetta on him. I'll have plenty to weigh in with shortly, because some of these names on the list are laughable in my opinion, but maybe it's just based off their "guidelines".

I think the odds that we're overestimating him are far better than the odds that BA has some "crazy vendetta" against him. And that's not just Occam's Razor talking.