BA's Carolina League Top Twenty

[Stotle]

All I will say is that I like Britton a whole lot and think a lot of scouts still don't value guys who are groundball machines. I actually agree with the BA's write up on Britton and I agree with Stotle that he's most likely a middle of the rotation guy. I just happen to think he has a ceiling of a solid number two if his changeup improves.

And, Tony, I know I told you this via email already, but for others to see, "Kudos on pegging him as a starter last year -- I had him as most likely headed to the pen."

[Frobby]

All I will say is that I like Britton a whole lot and think a lot of scouts still don't value guys who are groundball machines.

Yeah, it seems that way. And it's not like Britton isn't striking out anybody. If I am doing my math right, in 25 games, Britton got 407 batters to make outs this season -- 131 by strikeout, 213 by ground out, 63 by fly out. You're talking fewer than 3 fly outs per start!

I'd love to know how many of the 123 hits he allowed were ground balls that got through the infield, and how many of those were balls that a major league infielder would have turned into an out. It was probably a lot, because Frederick was a very poor defensive team.

[Stotle]

Yeah, it seems that way. And it's not like Britton isn't striking out anybody. If I am doing my math right, in 25 games, Britton got 407 batters to make outs this season -- 131 by strikeout, 213 by ground out, 63 by fly out. You're talking fewer than 3 fly outs per start!

I'd love to know how many of the 123 hits he allowed were ground balls that got through the infield, and how many of those were balls that a major league infielder would have turned into an out. It was probably a lot, because Frederick was a very poor defensive team.

As you know, the tricky part is that as he progresses, so do the hitters. So it's a matter of having to continually stay ahead of the hitters' development and prevent them from closing the gap. Unscientifically speaking, let's say this is the spectrum for hitters:

Striking out --> soft contact --> solid contact --> hard contact

If Britton currently has hitters sitting in the soft contact part of the spectrum (maybe some towards the striking out part of the spectrum) he has to maintain that gap in order to stay out of the solid contact/hard contact end. Whereas, a pitcher who has hitters sitting comfortably in the striking out side of the spectrum has a little more wiggle room as he runs into more advanced offenses. This is overly simplistic, but it's generally what I visualize when I'm comparing strikeout guys to soft contact guys.

[Stotle]

So far, Britton seems to be progressiing at a better rate than the hitters he's pitching against. He seems to improve as he moves up.

I agree. Arrieta bumped up to AA and improved across the board (I believe). Hopefully Britton will do the same.

[rlc]

Not a whole lot to argue with on the positional side:

Name      Age     DOB      Pos  G   PA  AB  R  H  2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB  SO  BA   OBP  SLG  OPS  EqAHeyward    19   8/09/89     OF  49 214 189 34  56 12  0 10  31  4  0 21  30 .296 .369 .519 .888 .314Alvarez    22   2/06/87     3B  66 284 243 38  60 14  1 14  55  1  1 37  70 .247 .342 .486 .827 .289Freeman    19   9/12/89     1B  70 297 255 43  77 19  0  6  34  1  4 26  41 .302 .394 .447 .841 .302Chisenhall 20  10/04/88     3B  99 432 388 59 107 26  2 18  79  2  1 37  80 .276 .346 .492 .838 .295Moustakas  20   9/11/88     3B 129 530 492 66 123 32  2 16  86 10  6 32  90 .250 .297 .421 .718 .258Kalish     21   3/28/88     OF  32 143 115 21  35  5  2  5  21  7  3 26  20 .304 .434 .513 .947 .331Espinosa   22   4/25/87     SS 133 576 474 90 125 31  4 18  72 29 11 74 129 .264 .375 .460 .834 .299Rizzo      19   8/08/89     1B  55 229 200 23  59 16  0  3  24  2  0 25  39 .295 .371 .420 .791 .286D'Arnaud   22   1/21/87  SS/2B  54 253 210 45  62 19  4  4  26 14  5 30  41 .295 .402 .481 .883 .317Danks      22   8/07/86     OF  30 138 118 25  38 11  2  3  21  5  1 18  32 .322 .409 .525 .934 .320Exposito   22   1/20/87      C  76 319 288 28  78 24  1  6  45  3  1 23  49 .271 .329 .424 .753 .269Lin        20   9/21/88     OF 131 562 479 75 127 23  2  7  54 26 11 66  75 .265 .355 .365 .720 .269Lough      23   1/20/86     OF  65 250 222 28  71 15  2  5  30  6  4 12  34 .320 .370 .473 .843 .305Bianchi    22  10/05/86     SS  60 245 220 32  66 12  2  4  28 12  2 20  47 .300 .360 .427 .787 .295Morel      22   4/21/87     3B 128 526 481 82 135 33  1 16  79 25  9 38  66 .281 .335 .453 .788 .274Joseph     23   6/18/86      C 104 412 380 50 108 23  2 12  60  2  1 26  64 .284 .337 .450 .787 .274Waring     23   1/02/86  1B/3B 128 543 473 70 129 35  2 26  90  5  3 51 121 .273 .354 .520 .874 .297

All of the guys who made the list were younger than Waring, all but one younger than Joseph. I'm not sure how Exposito's defense compares to Caleb's; offensively they're pretty similar, and Exposito's only six months younger. The two firstbasemen on the list are three and a half years younger than Waring.

On the pitching side:

Name      Age     DOB   W L  ERA G  GS   IP    H  R ER HR BB  SO HBP WP  BF WHIP  H/9 HR/9 BB/9 SO/9 SO/BB Matusz     22   2/11/87 4 2 2.16 11 11  66.2  56 22 16  5 21  75  1   5 276 1.155 7.6  0.7  2.8 10.1  3.50Kelly      19  10/04/89 1 4 3.09  8  8  46.2  33 21 16  4  7  35  1   2 178 0.857 6.4  0.8  1.4  6.8  5.00 Montgomery 19   7/01/89 4 1 2.25  9  9  52.0  38 15 13  0 12  46  3   5 212 0.962 6.6  0.0  2.1  8.0  3.83 Duffy      20  12/21/88 9 3 2.98 24 24 126.2 108 49 42  6 41 125  1   8 516 1.176 7.7  0.4  2.9  8.9  3.05 Britton    21  12/22/87 9 6 2.70 25 24 140.0 123 64 42  6 55 131  9  21 599 1.271 7.9  0.4  3.5  8.4  2.38 

Kelly's the only righthander in the group.

What's notable is that so many of the top 20 spent so little time in the league - and this includes Matusz. It kind of makes you wonder if the judges deducted points for anyone who didn't get promoted (or, as in Kelly's case, give up half the season to play another position).

[Lucky Jim]

As you know, the tricky part is that as he progresses, so do the hitters. So it's a matter of having to continually stay ahead of the hitters' development and prevent them from closing the gap. Unscientifically speaking, let's say this is the spectrum for hitters:

Striking out --> soft contact --> solid contact --> hard contact

If Britton currently has hitters sitting in the soft contact part of the spectrum (maybe some towards the striking out part of the spectrum) he has to maintain that gap in order to stay out of the solid contact/hard contact end. Whereas, a pitcher who has hitters sitting comfortably in the striking out side of the spectrum has a little more wiggle room as he runs into more advanced offenses. This is overly simplistic, but it's generally what I visualize when I'm comparing strikeout guys to soft contact guys.

That sounds a lot like what I said earlier. Nice to know my speculation wasn't too far off.

[Stotle]

That sounds a lot like what I said earlier. Nice to know my speculation wasn't too far off.

Didn't mean to restate -- If you used smaller words I'd read more of your posts

[Lucky Jim]

Didn't mean to restate -- If you used smaller words I'd read more of your posts

Glad to know you don't read them as it stands. (Frankly, I'm not sure anyone does anymore. )

I didn't think you were re-stating what I wrote. I was simply speculating as to what I thought was going on, earlier.

Good to see that I may not have been far off.

[hoosiers]

I think people also ought to look at the very top of the prospect list. Several of the best prospects in baseball are at the top and the number 2 or so overall draft pick of a recent draft is EIGHTH. This is a deep league and Britton has risen through the minors with many of the same prospects and been denied a spot on past lists.

What I like about Britton is that he still retains some upside projectability, IMO. He could easily add weight and mph to his fastball. ZB needs to cut down on the BBs and improve on his third pitch and we'll see if he can improve his prospect status.

[DrungoHazewood]

I'd love to know how many of the 123 hits he allowed were ground balls that got through the infield, and how many of those were balls that a major league infielder would have turned into an out. It was probably a lot, because Frederick was a very poor defensive team.

This doesn't answer with any certainty, but surprisingly the Carolina League had a higher defensive efficiency (.691) than the majors (.688) in 2009.

Britton's BABIP was .298, which I think is really good considering that Frederick's defense wasn't considered to be great, and he's an extreme GB pitcher and GBs have a higher rate of getting through than flyballs. I won't use the L-word, but he appeared to get good defensive support.

This is just a snapshot, but I don't have a lot of confidence that good fielders at higher levels are going to make him look a lot better.

[McLovin]

According to Melewski, the Red Sox are leading the O's 13-3 on these lists, and they don't even have an Appalachian League team. Ouch.

[Stotle]

According to Melewski, the Red Sox are leading the O's 13-3 on these lists, and they don't even have an Appalachian League team. Ouch.

Still currently the best organization in baseball.

[Frobby]

This doesn't answer with any certainty, but surprisingly the Carolina League had a higher defensive efficiency (.691) than the majors (.688) in 2009.

Britton's BABIP was .298, which I think is really good considering that Frederick's defense wasn't considered to be great, and he's an extreme GB pitcher and GBs have a higher rate of getting through than flyballs. I won't use the L-word, but he appeared to get good defensive support.

This is just a snapshot, but I don't have a lot of confidence that good fielders at higher levels are going to make him look a lot better.

Maybe this is faulty logic, but it seems to me that an infield that makes a lot of errors, also probably lets a lot of hits through that really could be outs. Obviously that's not true of someone who's really rangy but who makes a ton of throwing errors. But, I don't have the impression that the Frederick infield was full of rangy fielders, except maybe Florimon.

Well, it's all speculation I suppose. I'll still take my chances on a guy whose combined K rate and GB rate is sky high.

[Jammer7]

Still currently the best organization in baseball.

No doubt, but BA has been known to pad the rankings of players in the sexier organizations. They overvalued Atlanta's prospects for years, along with everything Dodger and Yankee. I guess it is the Red Sox turn. IMHO, if Britton is a Boston prospect, he'd be in the top 5 in the league and we'd be hearing about how his extreme groundball tendencies would play well in the Fen and lead him to a HOF career.

I like BA, but I really don't put a ton of stock in their rankings. They are wrong a lot.

[Stotle]

No doubt, but BA has been known to pad the rankings of players in the sexier organizations. They overvalued Atlanta's prospects for years, along with everything Dodger and Yankee. I guess it is the Red Sox turn. IMHO, if Britton is a Boston prospect, he'd be in the top 5 in the league and we'd be hearing about how his extreme groundball tendencies would play well in the Fen and lead him to a HOF career.

I like BA, but I really don't put a ton of stock in their rankings. They are wrong a lot.

Could be. But taking age, performance and skillset/stuff into account, what is the argument for Britton ahead of Casey Kelly? Or would Britton be just behind him, you're saying?