Schmuck: O's need a middle of the order bat

[Mackus]

I am at work now, but since you have this ridiculous desire for me to comb through all my past posting and arguments about free agency, I will be happy to do that and then isolate all the people that feel that we don't need to do much.

People who think we don't need to do much ever to build a winner? That's nonsense, nobody thinks that.

There are people who feel that signing guys to big deals now will be more hurtful than helpful for our long term success. It may get us a few extra wins in 2010 which won't change anything and maybe even 2011 which could help make the playoffs. But it will just be a waste of salary flexibility in 2012 and beyond for average or lower production.

Our scale is not yet at the point where the short-term benefit outweighs long-term harm. We're closer to that point now than we were a year ago, and in a year we'll be even closer, and, IMO, actually there. But signing Holliday or Bay or Lackey to bloated contracts this offseason isn't a good plan. Its just not. Now, if they have to take something like 6/$96M in Holliday's case or 5/$70M in Lackey's case, then most people will be on board. But its obvious that those guys will not be signing here for those amounts. Its gonna take 1-2 more years and $2-3M more per year to get them to Baltimore. And nobody who's opinion is worth listening to thinks its a wise decision to commit that type of money to those guys.

[DrungoHazewood]

You guys are funny. :rofl:

I have been speaking about this subject ever since the Tex fallout, and the general vibe I get is this:

"We do need to make changes, but for now, let's just wait until the prospects develop before making any big moves. In the meantime, wins and losses don't matter."

That has come up on multiple occasions and I don't feel like re-hashing this ad nauseum.

I don't need to make up fake statements about what has been a consistent sentiment in regards to the acquisition of expensive elite free agents.

MSK

Here's the problem: You and Trea and a few others get all hung up on expensive elite premium established free agents, and start to confuse "I don't want the Orioles to spend $140M on Matt Holliday in 2009" with "but for now, let's just wait until the prospects develop before making any big moves. In the meantime, wins and losses don't matter."

I think the vast majority of people here want MacPhail to make several key moves this offseason. It's just that a number of us, me included, want them to be very careful about committing $100s of millions to the good-but-not-great, don't-fit-our-needs players who happen to be free agents right now, when the team is coming off of a 64-win season.

I want MacPhail to aggressively pursue trades for young players with talent who fit needs. I want him to be diligent in finding the best stopgaps at positions where young players aren't quite ready. I want him to be ready to take on players from teams that are aggressively shedding payroll, or can't afford arbitration-eligibles. I want him to be all over international free agents who can help out right now. I want him to assemble a team that'll be around .500 in 2010, and ready to contend in 2011.

None of that has anything to do with twiddling his thumbs until Josh Bell turns into Home Run Baker.

[RShack]

Why do you feel that way? We don't have the money to be more active in FA markey than "an occasional, well-focused" addition?

Unlike many clubs we do indeed have the money for "an occasional well-focused addition" from the outside. That's what a $120M payroll will let you do. Doing more than that means you're trying to beat the MFY's at their own game, which is a losing proposition. We have to beat the MFY's at our game, not theirs, and that means relying mainly on guys we either grow or get from elsewhere before they are mega-expensive... because even when we do that, our good players will become expensive during the time they're enabling us to beat the MFY's, so we need payroll for that, not for hiring over-priced FA's just to prove a point to fans who want everything fixed Right Now via magic-bullet FA's regardless of the cost and ramifications.

[MemorialStadKid]

You do know how different those two phrases are right?

But even that said, I think you would be hard pressed to find many people who would argue that we "don't need to do too much".

I think what you will find is that the majority of folks you are arguing with are willing to gather more information as to what we already have before determining how much more we have to do.

I don't believe those are very different ideas because improvements for the Orioles will mean BIG improvements. Small moves aren't going to make a difference here.

How much more informational gathering is necessary? We know what our problems are:

1) No real starting pitching.

2) Overworked bullpen.

3) No big bat in the lineup.

Who is available that can plug those holes that will make an actual difference?

Then, I was saying that this franchise can't continue to lose without showing the fan base that they are serious about the rebuilding effort. We are so stuck on examining the Orioles from the perspective of a die-hard message board that we seem to forget that the people walking around the Baltimore metro area generally consider the Orioles as an afterthought.

That might not matter to the die-hards, but it definitely matters to the community.

MSK

[DrungoHazewood]

Then, I was saying that this franchise can't continue to lose without showing the fan base that they are serious about the rebuilding effort. We are so stuck on examining the Orioles from the perspective of a die-hard message board that we seem to forget that the people walking around the Baltimore metro area generally consider the Orioles as an afterthought.

That might not matter to the die-hards, but it definitely matters to the community.

MSK

So, you're saying that if the O's don't make some big signings of players that'll impress casual fans, this offseason, those fans will never come back?

I'd guess that 12 years isn't a bit different than 13. And that 81 wins is going to get about as many folks excited if it's because of breakouts from kids as it would be if it was because of John Lackey, Jason Bay, and $200M.

[RShack]

Great! Now try to squeeze the money out of Angelos "when the time is right", as some people around here would say.

I'm truly sorry that I'm such a skeptic. I'd like to believe that AM's rebuild will come out fine but I just don't trust Angelos to not screw it up. I suppose that my mistrust of Angelos is what is at the heart of my desire to see the O's spend money on a top FA now.

So they should spend $100M now to prove to you that PA will do it, rather than deal with major FA's who the FO actually wants when the FO thinks it is appropriate? Do I have that more-or-less right?

[RShack]

Here's the problem: You and Trea and a few others get all hung up on expensive elite premium established free agents, and start to confuse "I don't want the Orioles to spend $140M on Matt Holliday in 2009" with "but for now, let's just wait until the prospects develop before making any big moves. In the meantime, wins and losses don't matter."

I think the vast majority of people here want MacPhail to make several key moves this offseason. It's just that a number of us, me included, want them to be very careful about committing $100s of millions to the good-but-not-great, don't-fit-our-needs players who happen to be free agents right now, when the team is coming off of a 64-win season.

I want MacPhail to aggressively pursue trades for young players with talent who fit needs. I want him to be diligent in finding the best stopgaps at positions where young players aren't quite ready. I want him to be ready to take on players from teams that are aggressively shedding payroll, or can't afford arbitration-eligibles. I want him to be all over international free agents who can help out right now. I want him to assemble a team that'll be around .500 in 2010, and ready to contend in 2011.

None of that has anything to do with twiddling his thumbs until Josh Bell turns into Home Run Baker.

I agree with every word of this...

[TiredofLosing20]

I don't believe those are very different ideas because improvements for the Orioles will mean BIG improvements. Small moves aren't going to make a difference here.

Seriously?????? You don't see the difference. Then LJ is going to have a tough time defining his bet with you let alone winning it. One statement clearly indicates that you can find posters who believe the club needs to have NO changes made to it. The other statement says that you can find posters who believe we don't have to do much. There is a very important difference between those two statements.

For the record I think you will find NO posters that believe that this team doesn't need to make ANY changes and you will struggle mightily to find posters who think we need to not do too much. What you will find are posters who are willing to wait another year before doing too much.

How much more informational gathering is necessary? We know what our problems are:

1) No real starting pitching.

2) Overworked bullpen.

3) No big bat in the lineup.

Who is available that can plug those holes that will make an actual difference?

We do know what our problems are. But based on where we are in our rebuilding and the fact that we had our first crop of the farm hit the team last year what we do not know is if we have internal solutions to this. That is all those who are advocating more patience are saying. Lets make sure we understand what we have before going crazy spending money on what we think we need.

Then, I was saying that this franchise can't continue to lose without showing the fan base that they are serious about the rebuilding effort. We are so stuck on examining the Orioles from the perspective of a die-hard message board that we seem to forget that the people walking around the Baltimore metro area generally consider the Orioles as an afterthought.

That might not matter to the die-hards, but it definitely matters to the community.

I understand your point here. The casual fan just wants to see newsworthy FA splashes. I think we tried that scenario over the first 10 years of this 12 season losing streak, it doesn't work. The WORST thing this organization could do at this point (or frankly at any point) is to make moves to passify the casual fan.

[MemorialStadKid]

So, you're saying that if the O's don't make some big signings of players that'll impress casual fans, this offseason, those fans will never come back?

I'd guess that 12 years isn't a bit different than 13. And that 81 wins is going to get about as many folks excited if it's because of breakouts from kids as it would be if it was because of John Lackey, Jason Bay, and $200M.

Okay, you raised some good points in your other post as well:

Here's the problem: You and Trea and a few others get all hung up on expensive elite premium established free agents, and start to confuse "I don't want the Orioles to spend $140M on Matt Holliday in 2009" with "but for now, let's just wait until the prospects develop before making any big moves. In the meantime, wins and losses don't matter."

I think the vast majority of people here want MacPhail to make several key moves this offseason. It's just that a number of us, me included, want them to be very careful about committing $100s of millions to the good-but-not-great, don't-fit-our-needs players who happen to be free agents right now, when the team is coming off of a 64-win season.

I want MacPhail to aggressively pursue trades for young players with talent who fit needs. I want him to be diligent in finding the best stopgaps at positions where young players aren't quite ready. I want him to be ready to take on players from teams that are aggressively shedding payroll, or can't afford arbitration-eligibles. I want him to be all over international free agents who can help out right now. I want him to assemble a team that'll be around .500 in 2010, and ready to contend in 2011.

Let's stick with the reality of our times, this off season is awful in terms of free agents. I feel that we have constantly missed the boat with free agents time and time again regardless of the brain trust.

Am I the only one who is frustrated by the Orioles' lack of positive movement in the baseball world?

I am also concerned with the popular perception of the team in Baltimore. Whenever I talk with my friends back home about the Orioles, they either:

1) Don't care because we haven't won anything in over 10 years.

2) Hate Angelos.

3) Don't believe that the team is trying to do anything to improve.

I know that this will take time and we can't force the rebuild, but it feels like the overly-conservative AM will continue to be super deliberate to the point of stagnation.

I am fearful that we will be so careful that we will miss important once-in-a-lifetime opportunities when they come along.

MSK

[TiredofLosing20]

Am I the only one who is frustrated by the Orioles' lack of positive movement in the baseball world?

Of course not. Look at my screen name. But I guess I do believe we are making positive movement. I also realize that it takes some time.

I am also concerned with the popular perception of the team in Baltimore.

This will change when they start winning. We should not be making baseball decisions based on appeasing casual fans.

I know that this will take time and we can't force the rebuild,

This may be the smartest thing I have seen you post. Unfortunately, the things you advocate run completely counter to it.

[Robbie]

Frobby, you're a smart man. You know a lot about baseball. Nevertheless, I would ask you (and those who share your opinion) to rethink your stance on adding Jason Bay.

I think that Jason Bay is a perfect fit for this team. He would bring us a feared right-handed power hitter to bat fourth in our lineup. Just check out his major league numbers:

2007 - 21 HR, 84 RBI, .746 OPS

2008 - 31 HR, 101 RBI, .895 OPS

2009 - 36 HR, 119 RBI, .921 OPS

That is an amazing trend upward in his numbers from year to year. There is nobody who is either in our organization or who we are likely to get as a FA in 2010 who would fit our offensive needs better.

There is a correlation between him switching teams. He goes from a full season on team with little protection and few guys on base when he is hitting and a longer left field wall, to spending part of the season the park and part of it in an offense that has great protection and guys hitting in front of him and the small left field fence. Then he plays a full season for the Red Sox in Fenway. Don't you think the change in teams has something to do with upward swing.

[mweb]

Okay, you raised some good points in your other post as well:

Let's stick with the reality of our times, this off season is awful in terms of free agents. I feel that we have constantly missed the boat with free agents time and time again regardless of the brain trust.

Am I the only one who is frustrated by the Orioles' lack of positive movement in the baseball world?

I am also concerned with the popular perception of the team in Baltimore. Whenever I talk with my friends back home about the Orioles, they either:

1) Don't care because we haven't won anything in over 10 years.

2) Hate Angelos.

3) Don't believe that the team is trying to do anything to improve.

I know that this will take time and we can't force the rebuild, but it feels like the overly-conservative AM will continue to be super deliberate to the point of stagnation.

I am fearful that we will be so careful that we will miss important once-in-a-lifetime opportunities when they come along.

MSK

So did you and your friends get excited when Tejada was signed?

What free agents have we missed the boat on?

[VTmook213]

Here's the problem: You and Trea and a few others get all hung up on expensive elite premium established free agents, and start to confuse "I don't want the Orioles to spend $140M on Matt Holliday in 2009" with "but for now, let's just wait until the prospects develop before making any big moves. In the meantime, wins and losses don't matter."

I think the vast majority of people here want MacPhail to make several key moves this offseason. It's just that a number of us, me included, want them to be very careful about committing $100s of millions to the good-but-not-great, don't-fit-our-needs players who happen to be free agents right now, when the team is coming off of a 64-win season.

I want MacPhail to aggressively pursue trades for young players with talent who fit needs. I want him to be diligent in finding the best stopgaps at positions where young players aren't quite ready. I want him to be ready to take on players from teams that are aggressively shedding payroll, or can't afford arbitration-eligibles. I want him to be all over international free agents who can help out right now. I want him to assemble a team that'll be around .500 in 2010, and ready to contend in 2011.

None of that has anything to do with twiddling his thumbs until Josh Bell turns into Home Run Baker.

I am obviously a lot newer here than most of the rest of you so my reflections / insights to this situation should be taken with a grain of salt, I suppose ...

But it is exactly that attitude (which I bolded) that I find to be particularly frustrating. During the actual season it was alright, because while there was some chatter about offseason moves and changes that needed to be made, there was a large amount of talk about the actual games/players/etc. Now, during the offseason, talk pretty much revolves around what needs to be done. And for some reason, that attitude pervades most of the arguments on this board - that unless you want to sign Lackey, Holliday, or Bay this offseason or unless you're willing to trade 4-5 prospects for Gonzalez, Fielder, of Cabrera that you think the Orioles are fine as-is, have no room to improve, and are completely convinced that all the young talent will blossom into superstars.

It is entirely possible to advocate spending that does not involve one of the above. It doesn't mean those people are against any Free Agent signing or think that the team doesn't need to do much ... it just means they don't think those particular FAs are a good fit for us, this year.

[hoosiers]

Am I the only one who is frustrated by the Orioles' lack of positive movement in the baseball world?

Not sure why you would post such a question. Everyone here wants the Os to make huge leaps forward every offseason.

I would say that many posters here are completely ignoring the heavy respect shown by many professional baseball analysts and writers who have developed their own opinion as well as providing encouraging quotes from MLB front office personnel. The consensus opinion among most of those folks is that our re-build is very much on track and that our days of competing in the AL East are not too far in the future.

There is a difference between "do something", "spend something" and waiting patiently to make intelligent moves. This offseason is just beginning and it appears that the Os will be as active as about any team in baseball because of our financial flexibility.

[mcgraw238]

What free agents have we missed the boat on?

Please, please, please don't let this thread turn into a Tex debate.:eektf: