BA Top 30 (Baltimore)

[Lucky Jim]

I'm going to finish my point by noting that implicit in BA's ranking is the fact that they're uncertain that Angle has the speed to be a real basestealing threat at the MLB level. They may be discounting Angle's defense, or they may think that a bit more time (i.e., more than one full year) will help Hudson make up some of that difference.

I think Angle will make someone a good fourth OF. They may think that Hudson offers a better chance of being a second division starting OF, not unlike this guy:

Year	Team	         Lg	 Age	Org.	Level	Pos	Ln	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HBP	IBB	SH	 SF	DP 	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS1994	GCL Rangers	GCL	18	TEX	Rk	of	 	60	211	34	48	7	1	1	17	18	4	41	34	3	0	2	3	1 	.227	.357	.284	6411995	Hudson Valley	NYPL	19	TEX	A-	of	 	65	252	42	67	3	0	0	20	20	6	35	31	1	3	1	2	9 	.266	.355	.278	6331996	Brevard County	FSL	20	FLA	A+	of	 	108	383	39	100	9	2	0	30	20	10	45	65	3	0	7	0	8 	.261	.343	.295	6381997	Kane County	Midw	21	FLA	A	of	 	135	531	80	147	23	4	3	49	28	11	60	72	3	2	14	3	5 	.277	.352	.352	7041998	Charlotte	FSL	22	TEX	A+	of	 	81	302	55	86	12	4	4	39	26	8	44	32	0	0	4	6	2 	.285	.369	.391	760

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/Players/P/Scott-Podsednik.shtml

[Stotle]

Hudson (age 22, Delmarva): .284/.365/.314, 8 2B, 2 3B, 0 HR, 21 RBI, 31 SB 16 CS

Angle (age 22, Delmarva): .287/.385/.379, 22 2B, 5 3B, 4 HR, 35 RBI, 37 SB 11 CS

I look at Hudson's ISO of .030 -- 10 extra base hits all year -- and I find it extremely difficult to consider him any kind of a prospect. Hudson's 19-year old teammates Hoes and Avery managed 21 and 25 extra base hits, respectively.

I know Lucky Jim is trying to provide a rationale for BA, even though he isn't endorsing that opinion, but I just can't buy it. Angle's a much better prospect than Hudson.

This is the huge issue with being overly reliant on stats. LJ touches on a point also made by another poster in the thread -- Hudson's toolset is better than Angle's, but he lacks the reps thus far for the tools to manifest into skills. Prospecting isn't about trying to decide who is better now. It's about trying to project who is ultimately going to better down the line. Tony says as much when he continually reminds readers that HIS list is all about, "If I could only have one guy in my system, which one would I want." To pretend that choosing Hudson over Angle is indefensible is hyperbolic at best.

Should we take a look at D'Vontrey Richardson's stats at FSU, compare it to everyone else selected in the 5th-10th round (D'Vo was a 5th rounder) and call the Brewers silly? Would anyone want to take a bet that Russell Wilson (2B/QB NC State) will not be off the draft board in the first five rounds despite having yet to bat over .250 in spring or summer ball?

[Frobby]

This is the huge issue with being overly reliant on stats.

I'm just giving you my opinion here. Hudson isn't a high schooler, he went to college for 3 years. For a guy like that to get 10 extra base hits in an entire season suggests to me that he simply isn't going to make it to the major leagues. If I'm overly reliant on stats, so be it.

I hope Hudson comes out and has a good year in 2010 and shows I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[DrungoHazewood]

Hudson is a 5-foot-11, 165-pound burner whose games revolves around his top-of-the-line speed. He has run the 40-yard dash in 4.4 seconds and uses his quickness well on the bases and in center field. He's an outstanding athlete who once won the Illinois state high school high jump title with a mark of 6-foot-10 and earned 15 letters in four sports.

Apologize in advance for a momentary thread derailment, but I think that's unbelievable. Dude high jumped nearly a foot over his head. I know, Olympic athletes do that all the time, but I can conceive of hitting a 450-ft homer easier than I can imagine jumping over a bar set at 6' 8".

Please return to discussions on Hudson's projectability...

[Frobby]

Apologize in advance for a momentary thread derailment, but I think that's unbelievable. Dude high jumped nearly a foot over his head. I know, Olympic athletes do that all the time, but I can conceive of hitting a 450-ft homer easier than I can imagine jumping over a bar set at 6' 8".

Please return to discussions on Hudson's projectability...

Well, as soon as high jumping becomes an important part of baseball, Hudson should be great. Maybe he'll hurdle a CF fence on his way to making a catch.

[Stotle]

I'm just giving you my opinion here. Hudson isn't a high schooler, he went to college for 3 years. For a guy like that to get 10 extra base hits in an entire season suggests to me that he simply isn't going to make it to the major leagues. If I'm overly reliant on stats, so be it.

I hope Hudson comes out and has a good year in 2010 and shows I have no idea what I'm talking about.

Right, but even your above summary of Hudson's career is slanted. You are simply ignoring that 1) he didn't get to practice in the fall because of football.

, 2) he may have had his developmental time in the spring limited because of football practice (I honestly don't remember the coaches arrangements and don't have time to look up) and 3) he was limited in his summer ball opportunities because of the need to get back for football summer practice.

I don't think the issue is that Hudson is a good bet to make the majors while Angle isn't. I never claimed as much. I think your quoting of marginally important stats (given the facts surrounding the particular players in question) might be leading you to a viewpoint that shouldn't necessarily be as black-and-white as you are making it out to be.

Your tone suggests you feel Angle is a legit prospect whereas Hudson is NP'd, and that the stats show that assessment to be true. I think that is a misapplication of stats through ingnoring the circumstances at least partially responsible for those stats. To be clear, I'm not saying Hudson is a better prospect. I'm just saying that there is probably room to disagree as to who is currently the more valuable asset to the organization (considering present and future).

[Frobby]

Right, but even your above summary of Hudson's career is slanted. You are simply ignoring that 1) he didn't get to practice in the fall because of football.

, 2) he may have had his developmental time in the spring limited because of football practice (I honestly don't remember the coaches arrangements and don't have time to look up) and 3) he was limited in his summer ball opportunities because of the need to get back for football summer practice.

I don't think the issue is that Hudson is a good bet to make the majors while Angle isn't. I never claimed as much. I think your quoting of marginally important stats (given the facts surrounding the particular players in question) might be leading you to a viewpoint that shouldn't necessarily be as black-and-white as you are making it out to be.

Your tone suggests you feel Angle is a legit prospect whereas Hudson is NP'd, and that the stats show that assessment to be true. I think that is a misapplication of stats through ingnoring the circumstances at least partially responsible for those stats. To be clear, I'm not saying Hudson is a better prospect. I'm just saying that there is probably room to disagree as to who is currently the more valuable asset to the organization (considering present and future).

A couple of things. I never suggested that you (or Lucky Jim, or BA) had claimed that Hudson was a good bet to make the majors. And frankly, I don't really view Angle as a "legit prospect," either. At best, he's a good defensive outfielder who has some on-base skills, who maybe could scratch out a living as a 4th or 5th OF, but frankly, I doubt it. He's less of a prospect than, say, Jeff Fiorentino was a few years ago, and we all know how Fio's career has gone.

Back on Hudson, while I appreciate (and did when I first posted in this thread) that he has devoted a lot of time to football that he could have been devoting to baseball, I still can't get over that stat of 10 XBH in an entire season of play. A guy with Hudson's speed ought to be able to hit more than 8 doubles in a season just by accident. Being a slap hitter is one thing, but that's just ridiculous. If you've got an example of someone who hit for that little power coming out of college into the minors, who nevertheless went on to have more than a cup of coffee in the majors, let me know. There were 432 players who had 100 PA in MLB last year and only 3 of them had an ISO as low or lower than Hudson put up in low A at the age of 22. I suppose Hudson may learn to hit with a little more pop, but I'd say the odds are extremely long.

[Lucky Jim]

A couple of things. I never suggested that you (or Lucky Jim, or BA) had claimed that Hudson was a good bet to make the majors. And frankly, I don't really view Angle as a "legit prospect," either. At best, he's a good defensive outfielder who has some on-base skills, who maybe could scratch out a living as a 4th or 5th OF, but frankly, I doubt it. He's less of a prospect than, say, Jeff Fiorentino was a few years ago, and we all know how Fio's career has gone.

Back on Hudson, while I appreciate (and did when I first posted in this thread) that he has devoted a lot of time to football that he could have been devoting to baseball, I still can't get over that stat of 10 XBH in an entire season of play. A guy with Hudson's speed ought to be able to hit more than 8 doubles in a season just by accident. Being a slap hitter is one thing, but that's just ridiculous. If you've got an example of someone who hit for that little power coming out of college into the minors, who nevertheless went on to have more than a cup of coffee in the majors, let me know. There were 432 players who had 100 PA in MLB last year and only 3 of them had an ISO as low or lower than Hudson put up in low A at the age of 22. I suppose Hudson may learn to hit with a little more pop, but I'd say the odds are extremely long.

I linked to Podsednik's MiLB numbers - he didn't "come out of college" but I, like Stotle perhaps, think you're discounting the impact on development that Hudson's commitment to Division I football as a starting wide receiver had on the amount of baseball he was able to play. That's not a hobby.

Juan Pierre's ISO at 22 in AA was .054.

Willie Taveras put up a .051 ISO in AA at 22 as well.

Remember, this was Hudson's first full year. If there's no uptick in power next year, then the complaints will have far more merit. But the fact that he wasn't overwhelmed, and that he showed good patience, are equally important.

It's a huge flag. No one's arguing that he's a great prospect. But Angle is pretty much maxed-out development-wise. There's plenty of room for Hudson to develop still. Will he? Who knows. But the tools are there to do so, and that's what these lists are about.

[LookinUp]

He's less of a prospect than, say, Jeff Fiorentino was a few years ago, and we all know how Fio's career has gone.

Derailment #2.

Jeff Fiorentino had a .900 OPS in AAA last year, including a .943 OPS away from lefty-hitter killing Norfolk.

Who'd have thunk it? Good BB/K rates too.

[Stotle]

A couple of things. I never suggested that you (or Lucky Jim, or BA) had claimed that Hudson was a good bet to make the majors. And frankly, I don't really view Angle as a "legit prospect," either. At best, he's a good defensive outfielder who has some on-base skills, who maybe could scratch out a living as a 4th or 5th OF, but frankly, I doubt it. He's less of a prospect than, say, Jeff Fiorentino was a few years ago, and we all know how Fio's career has gone.

Back on Hudson, while I appreciate (and did when I first posted in this thread) that he has devoted a lot of time to football that he could have been devoting to baseball, I still can't get over that stat of 10 XBH in an entire season of play. A guy with Hudson's speed ought to be able to hit more than 8 doubles in a season just by accident. Being a slap hitter is one thing, but that's just ridiculous. If you've got an example of someone who hit for that little power coming out of college into the minors, who nevertheless went on to have more than a cup of coffee in the majors, let me know. There were 432 players who had 100 PA in MLB last year and only 3 of them had an ISO as low or lower than Hudson put up in low A at the age of 22. I suppose Hudson may learn to hit with a little more pop, but I'd say the odds are extremely long.

I understand your concerns, but I don't undertake any obligation to try and prove Hudson is going to have a ML career. My point has always simply been that it isn't crazy for a source like BA to value Hudson's ceiling over Angle's floor, when Angle's likely outcome is a 4th OF at best. Without putting too much weight in a small sample size, Hudson actually picked-up momentum and put together a very strong middle of the season (June/July).

Anyway, I could see someone making the argument that as long as Hudson is able to improve his reads and routes through lots of reps over the next three years, he could provide solid value along the lines of a Juan Pierre, Carlos Gomez, Scott Podsednik, etc. Angle is a very good defender but he'll never be able to cover the ground that Hudson can cover. I'm just saying that it isn't unreasonable to think that Hudson's potential career is over after 528 PAs in the low minors. He's a long shot, but so are most of the people in the second half of the O's Top 30 and below.

[DrungoHazewood]

I see Hudson a little like Lorenzo Scott a few years ago. Both were football players with great athletic skills and a serious lack of baseball skill refinement. Scott snuck into a few OH top 30 lists (or at least honorable mentions) based almost completely on projectability and growth and the fact his baseball skills were behind the curve because of football.

And both had a serious flaw that by itself almost precludes them from becoming major leaguers. Scott struck out in something like 40% ABs in A ball. Hudson had Roy Thomas' ISO.

Scott has actually done much better than I thought he would, and has actually been a decent hitter in AA/AAA the last few years. But he's 27 and will be lucky to ever play in the majors.

The vast majority of players in the Sally League never make the majors, much less have a real career. Even fewer do so after having years with such obvious flaws. But there's always a chance...

[LookinUp]

The weak arm issue also greatly diminishes Hudson's value. At least Angle projects as a real viable defensive replacement.

[Frobby]

Angle is a very good defender but he'll never be able to cover the ground that Hudson can cover.

I'd be interested to get the views of Doc Shorebird and Tony on this specific point. I accept the fact that Hudson is faster than Angle. However, from what I have read, Angle isn't just "very good" defensively, he's outstanding. A few quotes from the prospect tracker:

“He’s the best centerfielder in our organization. He played college so he’s a little more mature than these high school kids. He gets better reads on balls. He plays good centerfield but he also plays good left center and right center. He covers a lot of acres out there I tell you. The basket catch he made the other night was the best catch you’ll see all year. He’s a baseball player. He comes to the field and he knows what he has to do.”

“You watch Angle, he plays so hard every game, runs so hard to every ball. He dives at the right situations. He judges balls really well and to have a guy like him in center field is awesome. He’s catching balls in right field and left field. You don’t see too many athletes like that in High-A. He’s got the best range against anyone I’ve played with or played against. He’s the best I’ve seen. Thank god he’s on my team, I love it.”

And from Tony's write-up on the top prospects list:

Defensively, he's the best defensive center fielder in the system who covers a lot of ground side to side and his arm is strong enough to play in center field.

Now obviously I accept the fact that Hudson is faster and is still learning the game defensively (the same can be said of Avery). At the same time, there are some guys who just have the instinct for reading the ball off the bat and getting a great jump. Angle seems to be a guy like that. And it's not like the guy has no speed, he just isn't as fast as Hudson.

[Stotle]

I'd be interested to get the views of Doc Shorebird and Tony on this specific point. I accept the fact that Hudson is faster than Angle. However, from what I have read, Angle isn't just "very good" defensively, he's outstanding. A few quotes from the prospect tracker:

And from Tony's write-up on the top prospects list:

Now obviously I accept the fact that Hudson is faster and is still learning the game defensively (the same can be said of Avery). At the same time, there are some guys who just have the instinct for reading the ball off the bat and getting a great jump. Angle seems to be a guy like that. And it's not like the guy has no speed, he just isn't as fast as Hudson.

Right, I'm not disputing that Angle is the better player right now. I think the question is how people view each player's current skillset and what type of player that skillset can produce. Sure, Doc's and Tony's opinions matter. But I'd have to know how much of Hudson Tony has himself seen and how successful both he and Doc are at projecting.

And I would request the same thing about any individual scout BA talks to -- I just think some deference should be given to the fact that BA is asking around to multiple scouts and coaches and multiple organizations to try and get concensus views on the players they cover. Again, not saying BA has the order right, but I can't see dismissing it out-of-hand.

[Stotle]

Just went and looked up the numbers. Does everyone realize how much Hudson's bad August dragged down his overall numbers?

At Delmarva excluding 74 ABs in August:

AB - 317

AVG - .303

OBP - .377

SLG - .338

OPS - .715

BB - 37

BB% - 10.4%

SO - 62

BB/SO - .60

H - 96

2B - 8

3B - 1

I see plenty to be optimistic about with those numbers, considering it was his first full year focusing on baseball. Power is a huge flag, but I see someone with a decent understanding of the strikezone and how to work a count and reasonable contact skills. He also hits primarily groundballs (65.3%) and linedrives (18.4%).