MacPhail on 105.7 The Fan at 5:40 PM

[justcompete]

Explain the Rays then??????

They draft

1st in every round in 1999

6th in 2000

3rd in 2001

2nd in 2002

1st in 2003

4th in 2004

8th in 2005

3rd in 2006

1st in 2007

1st in 2008

That 5 #1 or 2nd picks in 10 years.

Over the same period we drafted in the top 5 twice

Guess who...um our best two young players Wieters and Matsuz

Think that has anything to do with the Rays success.

Their Top 5 picks include Beckham, Price, Longoria, Niemann, Young, and Upton.

They have a much better scouting team.

Much better at developing talent.

So inorder to mimic the Rays we need to continue to pick in the top 5.

Develop them and in 4 more years we too can be the Rays right?

Then once you pick in the 6 out of 10 years you can buy the bat like Pena and go to the World Series.

Yup lets follow the Rays model:rolleyes:

[H0smash]

Explain the Rays then??????

They draft

1st in every round in 1999

6th in 2000

3rd in 2001

2nd in 2002

1st in 2003

4th in 2004

8th in 2005

3rd in 2006

1st in 2007

1st in 2008

That 5 #1 or 2nd picks in 10 years.

Over the same period we drafted in the top 5 thrice

Guess who...um our best two young players Wieters and Matsuz

Think that has anything to do with the Rays success.

Their Top 5 picks include Beckham, Price, Longoria, Niemann, Young, and Upton.

They have a much better scouting team.

Much better at developing talent.

So inorder to mimic the Rays we need to continue to pick in the top 5.

Develop them and in 4 more years we too can be the Rays right?

Then once you pick in the 6 out of 10 years you can buy the bat like Pena and go to the World Series.

Yup lets follow the Rays model:rolleyes:

Fixed if for ya. During that span I think we took Loewen 4th overall.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2002/

[justcompete]

Fixed if for ya. During that span I think we took Loewen 4th overall.

http://www.mymlbdraft.com/2002/

touche..

But I still want to hear from all the Rays Model bandwagon folks?

Its not like we are talking about the Twins but the draft savy Rays.

I think we are well on that plan of drafting 1st 4 out of 10 years if we keep this up.

Maybe thats AM real plan.

[H0smash]

Oh I wasn't trying to nitpick or knock you man. Just helpin a brotha out.

If I had more time, I would go through all those top picks the Rays have had and would probably be able to find a bunch of busts. It's unfair to compare us to them since they had the luxury of picking up top 5 draft picks for 10 straight years. I kept telling people "eventually the Rays will be good, you keep getting no. 1 picks and that's what happens unless you're the Pirates or the Royals."

I do wish that we would improve our international presence, positional development, and draft more position players as well.

[Hank Scorpio]

Explain the Rays then??????

They draft

1st in every round in 1999

6th in 2000

3rd in 2001

2nd in 2002

1st in 2003

4th in 2004

8th in 2005

3rd in 2006

1st in 2007

1st in 2008

That 5 #1 or 2nd picks in 10 years.

Over the same period we drafted in the top 5 twice

Guess who...um our best two young players Wieters and Matsuz

Think that has anything to do with the Rays success.

Their Top 5 picks include Beckham, Price, Longoria, Niemann, Young, and Upton.

They have a much better scouting team.

Much better at developing talent.

So inorder to mimic the Rays we need to continue to pick in the top 5.

Develop them and in 4 more years we too can be the Rays right?

Then once you pick in the 6 out of 10 years you can buy the bat like Pena and go to the World Series.

Yup lets follow the Rays model:rolleyes:

Sly's premise is that you have to have spend a ton of money to compete in the division. They don't do that and never have... yet they're arguably the best team in the American League.

The Rays didn't "buy" Pena initially. They picked him up off the scrap heap when nobody else really wanted him ala David Ortiz. They signed him to a minor league deal initially. They got Zobrist as a throw in in the Aubrey Huff deal. They have made astute trades and drafted very well.

It's certainly a plausible model. Unforunately, it takes time to put it together and this fanbase is fed up with giving them more time.

Meh.

[Hank Scorpio]

Oh I wasn't trying to nitpick or knock you man. Just helpin a brotha out.

If I had more time, I would go through all those top picks the Rays have had and would probably be able to find a bunch of busts. It's unfair to compare us to them since they had the luxury of picking up top 5 draft picks for 10 straight years. I kept telling people "eventually the Rays will be good, you keep getting no. 1 picks and that's what happens unless you're the Pirates or the Royals."

I do wish that we would improve our international presence, positional development, and draft more position players as well.

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/draft/28.shtml

This is a small snapshot, but you get the idea.

[H0smash]

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/teams/draft/28.shtml

This is a small snapshot, but you get the idea.

Thanks. Looks like Townsend, D. Young, Baldelli, Brazelton, and Hamilton were the only first round busts. Although, Baldelli and Hamilton had problems no one could foresee, and D. Young helped bring back Garza so that was good for them.

[justcompete]

Sly's premise is that you have to have spend a ton of money to compete in the division. They don't do that and never have... yet they're arguably the best team in the American League.

The Rays didn't "buy" Pena initially. They picked him up off the scrap heap when nobody else really wanted him ala David Ortiz. They signed him to a minor league deal initially. They got Zobrist as a throw in in the Aubrey Huff deal. They have made astute trades and drafted very well.

It's certainly a plausible model. Unforunately, it takes time to put it together and this fanbase is fed up with giving them more time.

Meh.

So we now have two choices to compete in the AL

1 Rays Model

Step 1 Draft in top 5 in every round 60% of the prior decade.

Step 2 Develop the talent you draft

Step 3 Add players who are not stop gaps

or

2 Yankees/BoSox

Step 1 Spend money on talent

Step 2 keep stop-gaps at a minimun

Step 3 trade minors for more talent

We can't do #2 b/c that cost money

We can't do #1 for another atleast 4 years

W can do a hybird b/c no one wants to spend money on top talent b/c now is not the time.

So we can't follow the Yankees model and the Rays model will take atleast 4 more years of top 5 picks.

[glorydays]

touche..

But I still want to hear from all the Rays Model bandwagon folks?

Its not like we are talking about the Twins but the draft savy Rays.

I think we are well on that plan of drafting 1st 4 out of 10 years if we keep this up.

Maybe thats AM real plan.

You ask valid questions. I am on that bandwagon because I see the O's following the Rays/Braves/Indians model of building through the farm and complementing that talent through FA.

Here is the problem. IMO it wasn't necessarily a case of bad moves - though Atkins left my head scratching and those concerns have become nightmares come true. My biggest problem is that if we are following these teams as the model to base the 2010 Orioles off of - AM should not have made the "wins and losses" statement to the press. It should have been made in a private conversation with DT or whomever in the organization who needed to know the goals he had for the team. AM should have known this team was bound to struggle again this year.

And here is why I believe that. Because if you look at those teams they all needed a year together as a core to gel before they started winning. And when they began to win - they skipped the .500 season and went straight to competing. Therefore this Oriole team is closer to the 07 Rays, the 94 Indians and the 1990 Braves than the teams that went to the playoffs the following season.

The good news is those teams had solid foundations to continue competing for years.. not just a splash.

[LOUDOUN_BIRD]

Nobody really thought the offense was the main issue to be addressed, which is why Tejada and Atkins were signed as "stop-gaps."

Nobody is claiming, either, that the offense was *elite* but it was at least solid average. Look at all the prognostications. If everybody was wrong, can you honestly blame McPhail?

We can still hold him accountable for not answering the long-term need at SS, but beyond that, the criticism of his long-term vision is fairly unwarranted (based on this year's offensive results).

So, the worst record in baseball, a lineup that couldn't hit Univ of MD pitching (I didn't specify ladies or men in terms of team) and....MacPhail is in the clear...I need to convince my boss of this type of performance metric...

[Hank Scorpio]

So we now have two choices to compete in the AL

1 Rays Model

Step 1 Draft in top 5 in every round 60% of the prior decade.

Step 2 Develop the talent you draft

Step 3 Add players who are not stop gaps

or

2 Yankees/BoSox

Step 1 Spend money on talent

Step 2 keep stop-gaps at a minimun

Step 3 trade minors for more talent

We can't do #2 b/c that cost money

We can't do #1 for another atleast 4 years

W can do a hybird b/c no one wants to spend money on top talent b/c now is not the time.

So we can't follow the Yankees model and the Rays model will take atleast 4 more years of top 5 picks.

I completely agree that it can be a hybrid of the Red Sox & the Rays. I don't believe that the Rays will be able to sustain over time unless they can continue to hit it out of the park with their drafts. Maybe they can, who knows?

I'm of the opinion that you need to have a little success before you're going to lure any high dollar player. The current way is the most likely way to get to that point, IMO. They've tried the other method and it failed.

We agree, I believe. I don't think it needs to be the Rays model all the way through, but it's a great way to build a foundation... and he has succeeded in doing that thus far, IMO.

[LOUDOUN_BIRD]

Hogwash. Everyone knew we needed "multiple bats." He made a terrible move on Atkins, who has been declining 3 years in a row and was awful last year, and who has been very mediocre outside of Coors field for several years. That move isn't being judged with 20/20 hindsight. The vast majority of posters here (me included) thought it was stupid, didn't adequately address our needs, and said so at the time.

Miggy's a different story. He's a solid hitter and a known quantity in this town. There were some critics who didn't like that move, but there wasn't 5% of the amount of criticism he got over Atkins.

The only defense MacPhail has is that the offensive options were pretty limited. The only two elite bats (Halladay and Bay) weren't at a position of need for us, and there weren't a plethora of good 1B around. I'd have gone for LaRoche, but whether he had any interest in Baltimore, I can't say.

Hopefully our OF's come around and then all of this won't seem as bad as it seems right now.

Right on - however, Adam Jones was WAY over-sold. My impression was the Os front office thought he was a cornerstone... I don't see it that way at all. An Nick Mack is a nice player, but 20HRs from him is the ceiling. So, for the outfield of the future that leaves Nolan Reimold - slow as molasses and looks way over-matched at this point in the season. Maybe the idea was to stop gap the infield, our outfield was great, and with all these arms we are supposed to have we could make it work?

[geschinger]

I completely agree that it can be a hybrid of the Red Sox & the Rays. I don't believe that the Rays will be able to sustain over time unless they can continue to hit it out of the park with their drafts. Maybe they can, who knows?

I'm of the opinion that you need to have a little success before you're going to lure any high dollar player. The current way is the most likely way to get to that point, IMO. They've tried the other method and it failed.

We agree, I believe. I don't think it needs to be the Rays model all the way through, but it's a great way to build a foundation... and he has succeeded in doing that thus far, IMO.

A hybrid of the Red Sox and Rays or the Braves model of sustained success is a good one. The Yankees of the mid 90s are another model that the Orioles could take some things from.

[H0smash]

You ask valid questions. I am on that bandwagon because I see the O's following the Rays/Braves/Indians model of building through the farm and complementing that talent through FA.

Here is the problem. IMO it wasn't necessarily a case of bad moves - though Atkins left my head scratching and those concerns have become nightmares come true. My biggest problem is that if we are following these teams as the model to base the 2010 Orioles off of - AM should not have made the "wins and losses" statement to the press. It should have been made in a private conversation with DT or whomever in the organization who needed to know the goals he had for the team. AM should have known this team was bound to struggle again this year.

And here is why I believe that. Because if you look at those teams they all needed a year together as a core to gel before they started winning. And when they began to win - they skipped the .500 season and went straight to competing. Therefore this Oriole team is closer to the 07 Rays, the 94 Indians and the 1990 Braves than the teams that went to the playoffs the following season.

The good news is those teams had solid foundations to continue competing for years.. not just a splash.

I agree and have said countless times on here (even though I haven't been here that long) that we are similar to those teams and that is why this next offseason will be VERY, VERY important. We need to improve SS (offensively and try to maintain above-avg. defense), sign a big bat for 1B, and sign a big bat for LF/DH. No more talking this time just do it, don't wait for the market to set itself or percolate or whatever, improve those positions and move from there.

About his "wins and losses" comments - I think he may have also made that for the players, and there is something to be said about telling the players things through the media. I wish that it had worked because I like that tactic, the players had thought that we were rebuilding, so the losing and everything was okay and expected. When he made those comments, though, it was a way of saying: "you guys need to step up and win some games now."

[justcompete]

I think the Rays model is about as repeatable for us as the Yankees model.

You can not over estimate the power of picking in the top 5 of all rounds 5 out of 10 years.

I am tired of hearing about the Rays model.

A few years ago everyone was talking about the Tiger's model.

I am tired of hearing from Jtrea but mainly because I think he has a point. It is just beaten to death and spewed in every occasion.

I am tired of hearing about buy the bats because it has only been just talk and no action. The amount of talent availible will continue to shrink as teams make more and more money.

We need to actually buy the bats. A clean up hitter would be to rest of the lineup what an ace should be to the rotation, even more when we are talking about kids.

We need a guy to teach them how to go about thier job and mentor.

Jones is putting too much pressure on himself to lead. He has the right attitude just can't make the adjustments. In all fairness he shouldn't have the responsiblity.

Wieters shouldn't have the pressure on him that he does. Swith-hitting Jesus? Not likely without an ace.

Nick needs to see better pitches.

Reimold needs a mentor, he has potential to spare. He needs someone to show him the way. Not just tell him.

Bell, Synder will all need guidence that only a hitter going through it each day can provide.

We need an ace with the stick to teach the kids.

Tex, Holliday, whomever I could care less who the name is.

We need someone. Or lets just hope we can pick #1 overall 4 out of the next 8 years.