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Jim Callis comments on the O's lack of prospects in the league top 20's


Frobby

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So far the Baseball Cube system has not defied logic. Maybe I will find flaws in it in the future but so far I have not found any.

It is not a matter of logic. It is a matter of relevance. It is a matter of taking what even the creators admit is a very basic, non-contextual tool for interpreting a player's career numbers, and using it to settle an argument about a highly contextual judgment.

Context is critical in understanding young players.

The numbers you cite are utterly devoid of context.

Bring out TBC's numbers the next time somebody has an argument about Joe Mahoney's career. That's not what this discussion is about.

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Do you intentionally not read the part where Frobby says "I hope he proves me wrong. "

If you look at Mahoney's whole professional resume, this past year seems like an abberation, yet you want to base your whole claim on those three months. That is fine to do, but don't discount other people's opinions who seem more in line with what he has done.

Players develop. That is what they are supposed to do.

If you are on his side after he has had a good year you don't have to be proven wrong.

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Did you read the post I was responding to? Comparing Mahoney to Guzman, Waring and Avery. Come on.

Because you cannot base any type of arguments on abseball cube ratings. If you blindly look at baseball cube ratings, then thats what you get. That is why I used those players, to compare Mahoney to, because they are all different types of players.

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So are you saying that Mahoney does have more speed then Rizzo which is all the The Baseball Cube indicated and all that I took it to indicate?

That particular rating doesn't even indicate that, although it suggests it.

All that Speed rating indicates is that Mahoney stole more bases than Rizzo relative to the number of times he reached base. It probably means that Mahoney is faster, but that's all.

As a data point in a discussion of which player is the better prospect going into 2011, it is the next thing to worthless.

If you really want to know which player is faster, it's pretty simple: looking for scouting reports that time them home to first, and home to third.

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Players develop. That is what they are supposed to do.

If you are on his side after he has had a good year you don't have to be proven wrong.

He had a good year, but you barely acknowledge that he came back to earth during the final six weeks. His numbers are inflated by a very hot two weeks in Bowie.

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Whatever. I think WC is just using the term "in his corner" in a different way that you and I. So, fine.

You can't say you are in his corner and then say he will not be a regular in the majors. The two do opposed to each other. And making him prove you wrong is not being in his corner.

You are taking a objective view, which is your right. It may be the smart thing to do if most the board agrees with you and he don't get negative opinions about it.

But the view that he will not be a regular in the majors for a 23 year old kid after a good year is not being in his corner.

I agree with you most of the time. And you know I respect your opinion. But in this case I think you are trying to have it both ways. Your want to express negatively about his future and then say you support him. They don't go together.

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He had a good year, but you barely acknowledge that he came back to earth during the final six weeks. His numbers are inflated by a very hot two weeks in Bowie.

Agreed. But then again that is what Luke Scott has done for years. And now he has had a 900 OPS in the majors this year.

I will just take the approach to support him. I think he has earned it.

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It is not a matter of logic. It is a matter of relevance. It is a matter of taking what even the creators admit is a very basic, non-contextual tool for interpreting a player's career numbers, and using it to settle an argument about a highly contextual judgment.

Context is critical in understanding young players.

The numbers you cite are utterly devoid of context.

Bring out TBC's numbers the next time somebody has an argument about Joe Mahoney's career. That's not what this discussion is about.

You didn't not read the OP or the post with Tony on age and level. I said those things are not hard for anyone to add. I did it in the OP. There is the context.

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You can't say you are in his corner and then say he will not be a regular in the majors. The two do opposed to each other. And making him prove you wrong is not being in his corner.

You are taking a objective view, which is your right. It may be the smart thing to do if most the board agrees with you and he don't get negative opinions about it.

But the view that he will not be a regular in the majors for a 23 year old kid after a good year is not being in his corner.

I agree with you most of the time. And you know I respect your opinion. But in this case I think you are trying to have it both ways. Your want to express negatively about his future and then say you support him. They don't go together.

I am using the term "in his corner" to mean I am rooting for him to succeed. You are using it to mean that you think he will succeed (or has a very good chance to succeed). That's all.

I'm not trying to have it both ways. There are some posters around here who get so caught up in wanting to prove their opinions right that they actually seem to root for players to fail or disappoint once they've given a less than flattering opinion of them. I am not one of those. I truly hope Mahoney comes out next year and shows that July 2010 wasn't just a hot streak, it was the awakening of a major league talent.

And frankly, I don't have that much hubris about my opinions. I've never seen Mahoney play, and even if I had, I don't have any real scouting skills. I'm just interepreting the stats I tend to rely on, and to some degree reflecting opinions of people who do have some scouting skills and whose judgment I trust. But I freely admit I could be wrong, and it won't hurt my ego if I am.

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Because you cannot base any type of arguments on abseball cube ratings. If you blindly look at baseball cube ratings, then thats what you get. That is why I used those players, to compare Mahoney to, because they are all different types of players.

Sorry, I am missing your point. Comparing similar players makes sense. Rizzo and Mahoney are similar players. Both are prospects. Both have power.

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I am using the term "in his corner" to mean I am rooting for him to succeed. You are using it to mean that you think he will succeed (or has a very good chance to succeed). That's all.

I'm not trying to have it both ways. There are some posters around here who get so caught up in wanting to prove their opinions right that they actually seem to root for players to fail or disappoint once they've given a less than flattering opinion of them. I am not one of those. I truly hope Mahoney comes out next year and shows that July 2010 wasn't just a hot streak, it was the awakening of a major league talent.

And frankly, I don't have that much hubris about my opinions. I've never seen Mahoney play, and even if I had, I don't have any real scouting skills. I'm just interepreting the stats I tend to rely on, and to some degree reflecting opinions of people who do have some scouting skills and whose judgment I trust. But I freely admit I could be wrong, and it won't hurt my ego if I am.

Nice response. A class act as always.

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How are people not in his corner:

Frobby: my opinion is that he's not likely to be a major league starting player, and that he isn't a top prospect.

If that is being in his corner then.........................

Seriously, if this is your attitude I don't ever want to read one non-positive comment about any Orioles or organizational Orioles ever again on this site. I'm not talking bad, or quasi-critical -- I don't want to read one thing that isn't positive and 100% supportive of that player.

You are getting huffy because Callis stated this:

"He had a nice year, but I don't think scouts are projecting him as a .300 hitter with plus power, like he did this year. He hit 18 home runs, which is a nice year, but you don't see him as guy that will hit 25 in the Majors. He is not a top prospect."

He said he had a nice year. Then, he stated his thoughts on how he thinks scouts will interpret his season. Most of this isn't even Callis's appraisal, it's his guess at how scouts will view Mahoney when BA digs in for the organizational lists.

Now, you have the gall to call out posters for not being in a kids corners because they won't hop on your crazy train and declare any prospect that puts up a good (not great -- just good) season deserves to be talked about as a future ML contributor and nothing less.

This is the kind of garbage I've made fun of Yankees fans for over the past six years. Tune out all logic and tout your prospects and world beaters if there is any indication whatsoever that they are competent. You are entitled to your highly flawed interpretation of these things, but you are out of line for calling others out, and particularly out of line in this instance where by my count the posters you are insulting are all balanced and intelligent contributors in addition to being rock solid supporters of one of the worst organizations in baseball.

Get over yourself. You aren't being noble, or loyal, or anything like that. You are being delusional and you are insulting everyone trying to actually have a discussion with you about it.

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Seriously, if this is your attitude I don't ever want to read one non-positive comment about any Orioles or organizational Orioles ever again on this site. I'm not talking bad, or quasi-critical -- I don't want to read one thing that isn't positive and 100% supportive of that player.

You are getting huffy because Callis stated this:

"He had a nice year, but I don't think scouts are projecting him as a .300 hitter with plus power, like he did this year. He hit 18 home runs, which is a nice year, but you don't see him as guy that will hit 25 in the Majors. He is not a top prospect."

He said he had a nice year. Then, he stated his thoughts on how he thinks scouts will interpret his season. Most of this isn't even Callis's appraisal, it's his guess at how scouts will view Mahoney when BA digs in for the organizational lists.

Now, you have the gall to call out posters for not being in a kids corners because they won't hop on your crazy train and declare any prospect that puts up a good (not great -- just good) season deserves to be talked about as a future ML contributor and nothing less.

This is the kind of garbage I've made fun of Yankees fans for over the past six years. Tune out all logic and tout your prospects and world beaters if there is any indication whatsoever that they are competent. You are entitled to your highly flawed interpretation of these things, but you are out of line for calling others out, and particularly out of line in this instance where by my count the posters you are insulting are all balanced and intelligent contributors in addition to being rock solid supporters of one of the worst organizations in baseball.

Get over yourself. You aren't being noble, or loyal, or anything like that. You are being delusional and you are insulting everyone trying to actually have a discussion with you about it.

Stotle, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I honestly believe that.

People are entitled to be negative about a player if they want. But that does mean I have to agree with them. That is the case with Callis.

People are entitled to objective opinions that they feel may show a need to say that a player like Mahoney will never to a regular major league. But to express that objective opinion and then say but I support him seems like opposites. If you support him, don't state the negative. Or if you objectively feel the need to state he will never be good then don't say you support him. There is a direct conflict there.

Callis comment was something like saying Stotle you are a smart guy. You have done some great things. But you will never amount to anything.

Now which comment did you hear out of those three sentences. Most people would hear the last one. It has impact. That is the impression Callis' comments left with me.

Mahoney has an unknown future. He will probably be placed on the 40 man roster this off season. With a good ST and a good start to the season he could be in the majors sometime next year. That is what I think about Mahoney.

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Stotle, everyone is entitled to their opinion. I honestly believe that.

People are entitled to be negative about a player if they want. But that does mean I have to agree with them. That is the case with Callis.

People are entitled to objective opinions that they feel may show a need to say that a player like Mahoney will never to a regular major league. But to express that objective opinion and then say but I support him seems like opposites. If you support him, don't state the negative. Or if you objectively feel the need to state he will never be good then don't say you support him. There is a direct conflict there.

Callis comment was something like saying Stotle you are a smart guy. You have done some great things. But you will never amount to anything.

Now which comment did you hear out of those three sentences. Most people would hear the last one. It has impact. That is the impression Callis' comments left with me.

Mahoney has an unknown future. He will probably be placed on the 40 man roster this off season. With a good ST and a good start to the season he could be in the majors sometime next year. That is what I think about Mahoney.

No dude, we as orioles fans suppport our team. We want everyone in the system to be a great ML ball player, but that shouldn't get in the way of our evaluations of the certain ball player. Mahoney for me is a player who I don't expect much from. I hope I am wrong, because I am once again an O's fan, but looking at the objective facts, I don't think I am on this point.

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