Jim Callis comments on the O's lack of prospects in the league top 20's

[wildcard]

Did you just really use the Baseball cube's ratings? No offense, but they hold as much weight as you pulling out your magic 8 ball and asking for answers when trying to determine prospects. Age and level mean a ton more than ratings based off statistics that don't take age and experience into consideration.

No they don't but I did. If you will notice in my post I said that Rizzo has longer time to reach his peak. That makes him a better long term prospect. But Mahoney rates better on his current skills then Rizzo.

I think age and level are pretty easy things to apply to the Baseball Cube stats. They aren't nearly as complex as the Fangraph stats were it takes a while to try to know how they arrive at their numbers and then sometimes it hard to know for sure.

Even Fangraphs is supposed to reflect a single year. So you have to apply logic to the numbers to project the future performance.

No system is perfect but I can see some value in the Baseball Cube system if age and level is applied to it.

[Crazysilver03]

Thanks Tony. Nice to see a balanced post which talks about the good and the need for improvement.

If you think this is the only post that is balanced then you must have an agenda.

[Crazysilver03]

No they don't but I did. If you will notice in my post I said that Rizzo has longer time to reach his peak. That makes him a better long term prospect. But Mahoney rates better on his current skills then Rizzo.

I think age and level are pretty easy things to apply to the Baseball Cube stats. They aren't nearly as complex as the Fangraph stats were it takes a while to try to know how they arrive at their numbers and then sometimes it hard to know for sure.

Even Fangraphs is supposed to reflect a single year. So you have to apply logic to the numbers to project the future performance.

No system is perfect but I can see some value in the Baseball Cube system if age and level is applied to it.

How can Baseball Cube have value if you don't had any clue how it is derived, yet you try to write off Fangraphs and deny the credibilty of sources that are quoted?

[waroriole]

How can Baseball Cube have value if you don't had any clue how it is derived, yet you try to write off Fangraphs and deny the credibilty of sources that are quoted?

That's easy, Baseball Cube told him what he wanted to hear, and Fangraphs is crazy nonsense that says Kelly Johnson would get $23M a year if he were a FA.

[wildcard]

I think there are two separate points being addressed here:

1. How good of a prospect do we think Mahoney is?

2. Did Jim Callis "diss" Mahoney by saying he wasn't a "top prospect?"

My problem with you is on the second point. Here's what you said:

I just don't buy this, at all. Callis' job is to have opinions on players. He has an opinion on Mahoney. I have no problem at all with the way in which he stated his opinion. I see nothing disrespectful about it. And he isn't the only observer who has that opinion.

Moreover, nobody here is saying that Mahoney shouldn't get a chance to "earn his way to the majors." He'll get his chance, and how Callis (or you, or I, or Tony) labeled him won't matter if he performs. That doesn't mean that when we express our honest opinions about his chances, we are "dissing" him.

It's in my DNA to root for Orioles prospects, not against them. I'd rather have Mahoney prove me wrong than win an argument with you over how good a prospect he is. But for now, my opinion is that he's not likely to be a major league starting player, and that he isn't a top prospect.

Well if you didn't take the approach to minimize what he did this year you wouldn't have to be proven wrong. But that is your decision and your right to take that approach.

Callis minimized Mahoney player of the year award. He implied that he did not think the Mahoney would every hit .300 in the majors with plus power. He said he never expected Mahoney to hit 25 homers in the Majors. This all of a developing kid at 23 who had a great year.

He is entitled to his opinion as are you. And I am entitled to not like the way he expressed it or the implication that the kid really doesn't have much of a chance to be much in the majors. In my opinion it is too early to count Mahoney out. And as opposed to your approach, I will stay in his corner until he gives me a reason to change that opinion, which he certainly did not do this year.

[Arthur_Bryant]

How can Baseball Cube have value if you don't had any clue how it is derived, yet you try to write off Fangraphs and deny the credibilty of sources that are quoted?

The so-called "scouting stats" on TBC take a player's career totals, including college stats, and run them through simple algebraic formulas to come up with the rating. That's it. It's basically a way to present the career totals on the back of a bubble gum card.

Here's the explanation.

So, for example SPEED is derived from: stolen bases as compared to the number of times a player reached first base, not considering caught stealings.

It's basically a way of simplistically analyzing a player's basic career stats. The problem comes when you take a simplistic career overview and use it in an argument about where specific players stand today--especially with young players who are constantly evolving.

[wildcard]

How can Baseball Cube have value if you don't had any clue how it is derived, yet you try to write off Fangraphs and deny the credibilty of sources that are quoted?

So far the Baseball Cube system has not defied logic. Maybe I will find flaws in it in the future but so far I have not found any.

Fangraph has defied logic with Nick's defensive rating, with Kelly Johnson being worth 23M and when I ask questions about it the answers that come back from knowledgable people on this board including Frobby showing that Fangraph is far from a perfect system. I didn't reject Fangraph out of hand. I questioned if it could be trusted. And though it is a tool to be used the faith that can to placed in it is far from certain. Basically, it is hard to know when the numbers are right and when they aren't so it is hard to believe them when they are quoted.

[Crazysilver03]

Well if you didn't take the approach to minimize what he did this year you wouldn't have to be proven wrong. But that is your decision and your right to take that approach.

Callis minimized Mahoney player of the year award. He implied that he did not think the Mahoney would every hit .300 in the majors with plus power. He said he never expected Mahoney to hit 25 homers in the Mahoney. This all of a developing kid at 23 who had a great year.

He is entitled to his opinion as are you. And I am entitled to not like the way he expressed it or the implication that the kid really doesn't have much of a chance to be much in the majors. In my opinion it is too early to count Mahoney out. And as opposed to your approach, I will stay in his corner until he gives me a reason to change that opinion, which he certainly did not do this year.

Holy misunderstanding batman!!

Please point out where people aren't in Mahoney's corner? Everyone wants to see him succeed but we have different opinions on how good he will develop.

You say he did nothing this year to change your opinion, but were you behind him last year or the year before when he looked like organizational fodder?

Mahoney's sudden surgence is great, but the fact he slowed in August and September at AA pulls some of the strength from his season away. He needs to prove that April thru July wasn't a fluke, but the rest of his career leans in that direction.

[Crazysilver03]

So far the Baseball Cube system has not defied logic. Maybe I will find flaws in it in the future but so far I have not found any.

Fangraph has defied logic with Nick's defensive rating, with Kelly Johnson being worth 23M and when I ask questions about it the answers that come back from knowledgable people on this board including Frobby showing that Fangraph is far from a perfect system. I didn't reject Fangraph out of hand. I questioned if it could be trusted. And though it is a tool to be used the faith that can to placed in it is far from certain. Basically, it is hard to know when the numbers are right and when they aren't so it is hard to believe them when the are quoted.

If you are citing the Kelly Johnson idea, you are showing you don't understand it.

And you didn't realize anything was wrong with FanGraphs until I acknowledged that they said something themselves and now you have run away with it.

For once, why don't you research Baseball Cube instead of having other people tell you the flaws in it?

[Frobby]

In my opinion it is too early to count Mahoney out. And as opposed to your approach, I will stay in his corner until he gives me a reason to change that opinion, which he certainly did not do this year.

Holy misunderstanding batman!!

Please point out where people aren't in Mahoney's corner? Everyone wants to see him succeed but we have different opinions on how good he will develop.

That's about it. I'm done arguing about Mahoney for now. When Tony does his Top 30 we'll see where he puts Mahoney and we can argue about whether he's ranked too high or too low. But regardless of what I think about that, I don't think it is right to say that I'm not "in his corner." If he comes out next year and puts up a .922 OPS in Norfolk, I will be just as happy about it as WC, I am sure.

[wildcard]

Holy misunderstanding batman!!

Please point out where people aren't in Mahoney's corner? Everyone wants to see him succeed but we have different opinions on how good he will develop.

You say he did nothing this year to change your opinion, but were you behind him last year or the year before when he looked like organizational fodder?

Mahoney's sudden surgence is great, but the fact he slowed in August and September at AA pulls some of the strength from his season away. He needs to prove that April thru July wasn't a fluke, but the rest of his career leans in that direction.

How are people not in his corner:

Frobby: my opinion is that he's not likely to be a major league starting player, and that he isn't a top prospect.

If that is being in his corner then.........................

[wildcard]

If you are citing the Kelly Johnson idea, you are showing you don't understand it.

And you didn't realize anything was wrong with FanGraphs until I acknowledged that they said something themselves and now you have run away with it.

For once, why don't you research Baseball Cube instead of having other people tell you the flaws in it?

I do plenty of research. I think you know that.

[Crazysilver03]

How are people not in his corner:

Frobby: my opinion is that he's not likely to be a major league starting player, and that he isn't a top prospect.

If that is being in his corner then.........................

Do you intentionally not read the part where Frobby says "I hope he proves me wrong. "

If you look at Mahoney's whole professional resume, this past year seems like an abberation, yet you want to base your whole claim on those three months. That is fine to do, but don't discount other people's opinions who seem more in line with what he has done.

[wildcard]

The so-called "scouting stats" on TBC take a player's career totals, including college stats, and run them through simple algebraic formulas to come up with the rating. That's it. It's basically a way to present the career totals on the back of a bubble gum card.

Here's the explanation.

So, for example SPEED is derived from: stolen bases as compared to the number of times a player reached first base, not considering caught stealings.

It's basically a way of simplistically analyzing a player's basic career stats. The problem comes when you take a simplistic career overview and use it in an argument about where specific players stand today--especially with young players who are constantly evolving.

So are you saying that Mahoney does have more speed then Rizzo which is all the The Baseball Cube indicated and all that I took it to indicate?

[Crazysilver03]

I do plenty of research. I think you know that.

Then research Basbeball Cubes numbers and see if it is worth using as support?