MarCakes21

Makes sense, but two have to play that game. You have to make the other team a believer and you have to hope you get similar value back in return. Also, consider the financials as well, which aren't a big deal for this team. But in a hypothetical world, if you trade Mullins and Santander and get back a No 2 and No 3 starter, but you need to replace those guys for the next year or two. And you replace them with Nimmo (~5/$100) and Benintendi (3/$45) - again hypothetical signs, you probably don't want to clog the roster for 3+ with Benintendi so you could sub Profar or Conforto. Are you better? Or would you have been better off spending on Eovaldi (2/$30)+ Bassitt (3/$50). I'll take option two personally.

Okay, insert $20mil pitcher here.....don't you break even on WAR from trading value for Lopez and then signing Nimmo vs. just signing $20mil 2.5 WAR pitcher? Whats the difference?

Why? Not trying to fuss, but in your scenario you've got something like Cowser and Westburg (league min) for Lopez (arb) and then need to sign Nimmo for 5/$110. Can't you use your resource to gain wins better than that? Like just sign the pitching and keep the prospects.

ESPN has theirs up: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/insider/story/_/id/34971864/2022-23-mlb-offseason-free-agent-contract-predictions-rankings Some key names: deGrom: 3/$132 Rodon: 5/$130 Nimmo: 5/$118 Senga: 5/$72 Abreu: 2/$46 Bassitt: 3/$53 Stripling: 3/$36 Anderson: 2/$33 Eovaldi: 2/$30 Taillon: 2/$30 If it's my money and team, I'm in on Rodon, Senga, Bassitt, Eovaldi, Tailon for those prices.

Any of the pitchers really I’m okay with. I think Rodon we’d actually have to spend more for to outbid another team. But I’m good with the costs on Bassit/Eovaldi/Anderson/Senga for that cost.

A quick scan of backup (my threshold was less than 80 games) who had positive WAR, and their associated OPS: Zavala: 61 games/ 1.9 WAR/.729 OPS Jansen: 72/2.6/.855 Jeffers: 0.9/67/648 Maile: 0.7/76/.627 Heineman: 0.6/62/.524 Serven: 0.5/62/.593 Casali: 0.4/57/.649 Wynns (a blast from the past): 0.4/66/.671 McCann and Garver (hurt) put up 0.4 WAR Delay: 0.2/57/.536 And it tiers down from there. Those guys below Jansen have negative oWAR and several wins positive in dWAR So as you can see, if you can get the positive dWAR value, then you take what you can get from the oWAR side. None of these guys are lighting it up.

I'd be thrilled if we got a backup to play 40 games, had positive dWAR and had an OPS of .600. If there's a way to pull the info, I'd imagine majority of teams do not have a backup C that can do that.

Any top tier position player. I think we have what we have on that side of the ball. We have more pieces coming, I'd rather spend my money on pitching as opposed to Judge/Turner/Correa/Bogaerts/Swanson/Benintendi/Bell. I think all of these guys don't provide the dollar value return over what they're replacing. You get Adley/Henderson/Westburg/Ortiz/Norby/Cowser/Stowers all at league minimum. You have to strike 2 guys as elite, and 2 others as all star, so focus your money elsewhere. The one I might consider, and I don't consider a position, would be a veteran DH if you can get it for reasonable cost, to give you 100-120 games (Martinez, Brantley, Cruz). Any top RP. I think we've proven we can provide value there, and we have depth. We will have more depth if we focus on SP and move some of our SP, to the Bullpen. Ie, Voth, Watkins, Wells. So say no to Diaz (too late)/Jansen/Kimbrel.

Okay, but manage your costs. So you want to sign one of these guys to be a backup. Vasquez and Navarez were each making ~$5mil last year. You'll prorate them to 1/4 of the season, so you'd need to get 1 WAR out of them to make it worth your money. On the alternative, you could spend $5 mil on a quality BP piece, or add $5mil/per year to another player which might get added returns. So point being, if Chirinos (or insert other player of similar defensive quality) give you 0.5 WAR for league minimum-$1mil, I would focus there and spend my money elsewhere.

Yes, outrage because he was costing the team by not hitting. But per bref, he had positive 0.4 dWar and 0.0 oWar. I'm no expert on those either.

I guess I'm a little surprised by the attention here. Not that I don't think backup catcher is important, but in reality, this player is starting ~40 games. So your goals ought to be 1. Good clubhouse presence and leader 2. Good defensively. There's really no need to spend over league minimum for those traits, and I'd be happy bringing back Chirinos for another year to give Adley a breather. Prioritize money elsewhere. In reality, the Astros just won the world series starting Maldanado over Vasquez, and he was pretty much Chirinos with the bat.

Maybe they opted to keep Mateo off the Gold Glove so he could win the Platinum Glove.

The Astros are a big market team because they've got a fanbase. Were they a big market when they stunk too?

The Astros are a fair comp. And they had no problem with Verlander or Grienke.

I thought that was odd too. We're in on the huge names, deGrom, Verlander, Bogarts, Turner, but not the mid-tier guys like Bassit, Eovaldi, Anderson, Perez

Those all seem super low. I'd sign the 3-8 guys on that list for more, and take all 6 of them.

Yes, its an organization built on culture. The Alvarez and Tucker are experiences because they were taught by guys like Springer and Correa (and Altuve and Grienke and Verlander and others). The guys following Sig and Elias are successful because they were taught by them. If you build culture for longevity, it's not the people it's the org. Ie, the Os of the 70s and 80s.

Sounds like there's general agreement that a big bopper would be "nice." But we all know the O's payroll, and while it has room, it also has limitations. So if you're the front office, in my opinion you likely have to choose between big bopper 1B and TOR. I'll pick TOR any day.

Look at the playoff rosters. You cannot have a team of 1-3 WAR players. You have to have the one or two guys who have 5-8 WAR (CLE: Ramirez, SEA: Rodriguez, TOR: Bichette Manoah, NY: Judge, Cole, HOU: A lot, PHI: Harper, Nola, Wheeler, STL: Arenado/Goldy, SD: Soto/Machado, ATL: A lot, NYM: A lot, LAD: A lot. There are two ways to get that, either homegrown talent which is cheap or a huge FA. You can't imagine, other than Adley and maybe Gunnar, that you have high WAR players homegrown for next year. And you're not going to get high WAR with middling contracts.

Yup and he's worth that and more, even with the risk.

I'll take Bassit over Manaea, just more for the consistency. But I do like Eovaldi.

Make these two regulars or semi-regulars next season to see what you get. They don't have any significant trade value, so its either keep or dump. If you're spending money it should be solely on pitching.

Just one....because you're the Orioles

So let's talk about cost, assuming your predictions are good, and any of them would sign with the O's: - deGrom for 5 @ $35 per - Rodon for 5 @ $25 per - Verlander for 3 @ $40 per Who do you pick? At those cost, probably deGrom for me.

My assumption is that we can't get Verlander or deGrom. For me, if we could, those are options 1 and 1a. However, Option 2 is Rodon. I'll open it up for him, and assume the risk, given our payroll can afford it. Obviously you don't want to look foolish with an overpay, but I don't mind being the highest bidder. Option 3 is Bassit. He's certainly not an ace, but he's a solid and durable 2/3.