Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

[Aglets]

You can't just look at runs scored per game with the Pirates.

Look at the games they won and the games they lost:

In the 10 games they won, the offense scored an average of 5.6 runs per game. The Pirates were actually a big swing team as they had a good offense in wins, and a lousy offense in losses, getting shut out in 3 games that month.

But the key is their offense was there to back up the pitching when they pitched well enough to win for the most part.

You can't say that for the Orioles.

So the Pirates had a good offense when they won, and a poor offense when they lost, huh? That doesn't seem particularly profound to me. I think that if you examine large trends, you will find that teams tend to win most of their games when they score a bunch of runs.

This is really a new kind of statistics for me. It's as Drungo said, you are starting with a conclusion, and picking stats that you want (and ignoring the rest) that justify your conclusion at the end. Even if the whole picture destroys your argument.

You're telling me I just can't 'look at the runs scored per game' to judge how good the Pittsburgh Offense was?

What's next, I can't look at the Pittsburgh Win/Loss record to determine how many games they're winning? Cuz, i could cherry pick some games there too......but that would be dishonest.

Anywho, what exactly is your point again?

The Pittsburgh offense is better because they ate Frosted Mini Wheats for breakfast on 10 'key' dates in April? and it was strategic of them to not waste their time and try to score when they were down 20-0.....instead they should lay down and sleep during those games to save their energy for the close ones?

I would define a good offensive performance as scoring more than 4 runs per game. 4.38 was the ML average in 2010.

So can you confirm this for me? I want to make sure I am not misquoting.

You do not agree with my statement above about what defines a good offensive performance. it only matters how they score when the pitching decides to show up?

So, let me try my hand at this cherry picking thing.......this should help to clarify things for me.

On April 11, the Pirates offense scored 6 runs, and they lost 15-6. This was a bad performance, because they wasted it when the pitching was bad?

On April 10, literally the day before, the Pirates won the game 6-3. You would congratulate them for scoring 6, then right?

If I can't use the metric of 'ability to score runs' to judge how good an offense is I am going to need some more details to help improve my handle on this unique brand of sabermetrics.

[Aglets]

Also, i hate to add one more question to my previous post, but I just did some more number crunching for the O's and now I think I'm more confused than ever!

I'm doing as you instructed and trying to judge the Orioles offense in the end of the season. I cherry picked only the games where we won, just as you instructed with the Pirates.

in the month of September the Orioles won 14 games. In those 14 games we averaged 5.6 runs per game. Exactly the same total as the Pirates did in April, during their ten wins.

But I thought you said the Orioles offense was awful all year? Can you clarify how that can be true when their "Treavian" offensive metrics for Sep exactly match the Pirates metrics for April?

[Sports Guy]

When you hear the players that were acquired talk about the Orioles they talk about Buck and MacPhail.

I don't recall other managers being mentioned like that in the past. It seems like they were a duo this offseason, where that definitely wasn't the case with Trembley or Perlozzo. MacPhail has said he wanted to acquire players that Buck would agree with, but he never seemed to give Trembley that option.

Mazzilli may have had some influence, but Hargrove and Miller certainly didn't.

They talk about Buck because he is an established, well respected big league manager that had a very good record in his short stint here last year.

Whether or not he had influence on who to bring in or not is up in the air...I think its fairly obvious that he had influence in bringing back Izzy and I think we know that what he values in certain players makes you believe that he had some input.

However, it was never his say over AM's or anything like that, which is what you kept saying would be the case.

[scOtt]

It's easy if you start with a conclusion, then work backwards to fill in the selected facts and half-truths that fit that conclusion while ignorning or minimizing everything else.

By any means necessary...

[scOtt]

They talk about Buck because he is an established, well respected big league manager that had a very good record in his short stint here last year.

Whether or not he had influence on who to bring in or not is up in the air...I think its fairly obvious that he had influence in bringing back Izzy and I think we know that what he values in certain players makes you believe that he had some input.

However, it was never his say over AM's or anything like that, which is what you kept saying would be the case.

Remember also that it came out, that he never talked to Lee before he signed...

Of course Trea will say that he SHOULDN'T have talked to him because Lee sucks. That damn MacPhail!!!!!1!!1 *shakes fist*

[Frobby]

Andy MacPhail recently said the following:

"So far, so good," president of baseball operations Andy MacPhail said of the organization's position-player upgrades. "But the most important factor is going to be the continued health and maturation of our young arms."

That last phrase, seems to be key, as MacPhail of course seems to think pitching is the most important facet of the game.

However it was the offense that was so dreadful last season, not the pitching, and while the pitching was stellar under Showalter, it had to be, otherwise they wouldn't have won all those games as the offense still wasn't clicking even in August and September.

What's going to happen when the pitching slips back to a more sustainable pace? The answer is the offense is going to have to be there to back them up. If the offense has a season like it did last year, this team isn't going to reach .500 let alone be considered a contender no matter how solid the pitching is. The pitching is going to hit a certain ceiling and they can only do so much. The pace they had under Buck simply isn't realistically sustainable.

Getting back to the offense, the Orioles have several question marks in their lineup, the biggest being Adam Jones, Matt Wieters and Nick Markakis.

Those three are going to be crucial to the performance of the team going forward. Guthrie, Matusz, Bergesen can all pitch lights out, but it isn't going to make a difference if those three core position players aren't performing IMO.

And then you have the players that were acquired to supplement the lineup, in Reynolds, Lee and Hardy. While good acquisitions on the surface, they too carry many question marks going into 2011. With Lee and Hardy the injury question looms large. Hardy is most certain to not make 140 starts and Lee age and injury factors in especially as he's dealing with a back problem similar to Roberts that most likely played a role in his subpar season last year. With Reynolds, you hope that he'll return to 2009 form, but again he's tinkering with his swing to cut down on strikeouts, so you hope he doesn't screw up his mechanics that gives him that valuable power.

You have aging returning vets in Roberts and Scott, both who have likely hit their career seasons and won't replicate what they did then. And with Roberts you also have the obvious health concerns.

There is no sure thing in the Orioles lineup at all, and that is very concerning IMO considering how the offense torpedoed the season in April.

The depth on the bench and in the minors is non-existant as well. If Roberts falters, you only have no-hit MIers in Izturis and Harris to replace him. If Lee goes down you have Luke Scott to move to 1B, but then you have to put a bat like Fox, Reimold, Bell or Snyder in the DH spot, all non-proven options.

There is no quality positional depth whatsoever, so injuries like last year will absolutely kill this offense and this team. And it's also the reason why we must land another bat like Vlad or Thome, but that's for another thread...

So I don't see how MacPhail can say that the continued health and development of the pitching is going to be key, not when we saw what happened last season with the offense and the fact his response was to build an offense with duct tape (albeit it extra-strength) filling the holes along with a lot of hopes and prayers.

If the offense falters, so does our entire season.

Well, Trea, how do you feel about this now? I'd say Mr. MacPhail was 100% correct.

[JTrea81]

Well, Trea, how do you feel about this now? I'd say Mr. MacPhail was 100% correct.

The pitching went south, no doubt about that.

But the Orioles lack of offensive depth still hurt them. Roberts missed the season, Lee was injured and ineffective until right before the deadline, Scott got hurt and Markakis struggled for the year as did Wieters before July. Hardy also missed a month as expected. So the concerns were valid. Now Vlad didn't help matters as much as I and others hoped, as the lack of offensive depth in the system was exposed having to rely on the likes of Josh Bell, Brandon Snyder and Blake Davis.

The Orioles biggest problem was a lack of OBP and speed this year however, not HR power and Roberts missing was a huge part of that, but the regression of Markakis was huge in that regard as well.

And the Orioles are still last in runs scored in the division which can't happen with a staff like they had.

Obviously nobody expected this rotation to fall apart, and it's pretty hard to overcome a 6-7 run deficit, but when you aren't scoring runs on top of that, it gives you the season we have now.

Injuries did absoultely kill this team this year as Roberts, Lee and Hardy all missed time which hurt the offense greatly and Lee was a detriment offensively for most of the year because of his injuries. Lee killed a ton of rallies by himself.

So while pitching was important, it wasn't more important than the lack of quality offensive depth this season IMO. I'd rank them just about equal.

Of the two issues, the pitching will also be the cheapest to fix.

[DrungoHazewood]

I needed this start to my morning. A little humor goes a long way. Only you could type this response instead of just saying "Yeh, I was wrong".

You know the saying "death and taxes"? They're are inevitable right? For this board it should be "JTrea making incorrect predictions and refusing to admit to it or learn from it".

The O's are 8th in the AL in runs scored, but have allowed 57 more runs than any other team in the league. I don't even recognize the universe where those problems are equal. Oh, that's right, it's TreaVerse, the universe far on the other side of BizarroWorld. It's like saying JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis both have some things to work on offensively.

If a politician or a used car salesman made such a claim they'd be laughed at.

[Hank Scorpio]

The O's are 8th in the AL in runs scored, but have allowed 57 more runs than any other team in the league. I don't even recognize the universe where those problems are equal. Oh, that's right, it's TreaVerse, the universe far on the other side of BizarroWorld. It's like saying JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis both have some things to work on offensively.

If a politician or a used car salesman made such a claim they'd be laughed at.

:laughlol:

[JTrea81]

The O's are 8th in the AL in runs scored, but have allowed 57 more runs than any other team in the league. I don't even recognize the universe where those problems are equal. Oh, that's right, it's TreaVerse, the universe far on the other side of BizarroWorld. It's like saying JJ Hardy and Cesar Izturis both have some things to work on offensively.

If a politician or a used car salesman made such a claim they'd be laughed at.

The O's may be 8th in the AL runs scored, but they are 5th in runs scored in their own division.

To win in the AL East you need both a juggernaut offense and a solid pitching staff.

[Hank Scorpio]

The O's may be 8th in the AL runs scored, but they are 5th in runs scored in their own division.

To win in the AL East you need both a juggernaut offense and a solid pitching staff.

Tampa's winning in the AL East this year with a very average offense and a juggernaut pitching staff.

RUNS 658 15th

BATTING AVERAGE.243 26th

ON BASE PERCENTAGE.319 15th

SLUGGING PCT.398 15th

[JTrea81]

Tampa's winning in the AL East this year with an average offense and a juggernaut pitching staff.

It's much easier to turn our team into the reverse IMO. We don't have the horses to field a juggernaut pitching staff.

[Hank Scorpio]

It's much easier to turn our team into the reverse IMO. We don't have the horses to field a juggernaut pitching staff.

You must hate the Rays, huh.

They refuse to obey the laws of closed windows.

[Frobby]

Tampa's winning in the AL East this year with a very average offense and a juggernaut pitching staff.

It's much easier to turn our team into the reverse IMO. We don't have the horses to field a juggernaut pitching staff.

We are very far from having a juggernaut offense, and we are very far from having an average pitching staff. We need to improve in both areas. And we need to be careful that, as we improve the offense, we don't do it at great cost to the defense, which impacts the pitching significantly. In fact, we need to shore up the defense while at the same time improving the offense. It's a pretty tall order.

[Hank Scorpio]

We are very far from having a juggernaut offense, and we are very far from having an average pitching staff. We need to improve in both areas. And we need to be careful that, as we improve the offense, we don't do it at great cost to the defense, which impacts the pitching significantly. In fact, we need to shore up the defense while at the same time improving the offense. It's a pretty tall order.

Yeah it's pretty much ugly across the board.

The defense & pitching are just about the worst in the entire league, which should be an embarrassment for MacPhail, who's mantra was pitching and defense from the get go.