Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

[JTrea81]

That's a beautiful strawman. You won't have to worry about crows in your garden ever, ever again.

Of course no semi-coherent human being ever suggested that the O's would be fine scoring one run a game (in other words, 451 fewer than they did in 2010).

You've tried to make the argument that the 750-ish run team that the Orioles have assembled for 2011 is the rough equivalent of a team that scores no runs at all. Huzzah!

They aren't scoring 750 if they have injuries or poor performance, and a lot of our players run the risk of one or the other.

There are too many question marks to feel comfortable that this offense will be able to support the pitching.

[Sports Guy]

They aren't scoring 750 if they have injuries or poor performance, and a lot of our players run the risk of one or the other.

There are too many question marks to feel comfortable that this offense will be able to support the pitching.

I will ask again and see if this time you don't avoid it...What offensive upgrades did you want that weren't/aren't question marks?

[Crazysilver03]

I will ask again and see if this time you don't avoid it...What offensive upgrades did you want that weren't/aren't question marks?

I don't even know why people engage him anymore, when we know full well he won't respond with facts.

[Sports Guy]

They aren't scoring 750 if they have injuries or poor performance, and a lot of our players run the risk of one or the other.

There are too many question marks to feel comfortable that this offense will be able to support the pitching.

What if we acquired AGon and Beltre and they got hurt...Would our offense have scored 750 runs then?

[JTrea81]

So if Millwood and Matusz struggled in July because they were unable to shoulder the burden of an inept offense......what happened after that?

The burden certainly didn't change that much. The offense was essentially the same, yet they both improved substantially. What was that all about?

How can you say they were sucking because of some overwhelming burden......but in the last 2 months when the burden is still there (and since they've been carrying this burden since april i can only imagine how heavy it must have felt......sometimes I even have trouble carrying my suitcase from a bus stop to a location a few blocks away) they actually pitched some of their BEST baseball?

Don't you think that a rational and logical person would say that there must have been some other explanation?

Two reasons - One, Buck gave them the confidence boost they were lacking. Guthrie explained it best on MLB Network Radio a few days ago - once a few of the pitchers got their confidence back, it spread to the rest of the staff. Expecting that to happen again twice if the offense falters again is expecting too much IMO. The "new manager" effect will no longer be able to carry them.

Two - all the pitchers were now pitching for their jobs. Nobody was safe in the rotation given the fact the offseason was approaching and pitchers could be acquired to replace those arms and they also could be traded to another team to acquire pieces to win. So they had extra motivation to play well. In Millwood's case, he probably didn't want to face the wrath of Showalter, so he rededicated himself.

[JTrea81]

What if we acquired AGon and Beltre and they got hurt...Would our offense have scored 750 runs then?

How likely are those two to get hurt though over a 35 year old 1B man with a bad back coming off a thumb injury and a SS who can't stay healthy for 140 games? Add that to a 2B man who also has a bad back and with two LFers who can't stay healthy or consistent and the offense assembled doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that they'll be able to stay healthy and consistent.

And then you've got zero depth behind them if they do have poor performance and injuries. There's no failsafe.

Everybody has to stay healthy and perform or this offense will struggle signficantly which will in turn influence the quality of pitching and how much we can win.

[Sports Guy]

How likely are those two to get hurt though over a 35 year old 1B man with a bad back coming off a thumb injury and a SS who can't stay healthy for 140 games?

Who cares...That's not the question. Would they be a 750 run team if those 2 got hurt?

See, you want to ask one question to apply to one thing but not the other.

Your arguments are inconsistent and very poor...and then you don't address certain points because you know if you address them, you will show yourself to have a double standard.

[Crazysilver03]

How likely are those two to get hurt though over a 35 year old 1B man with a bad back coming off a thumb injury and a SS who can't stay healthy for 140 games? Add that to a 2B man who also has a bad back and with two LFers who can't stay healthy or consistent and the offense assembled doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that they'll be able to stay healthy and consistent.

And you think adding a 35 year old DH with a bad back is a substantial upgrade?

[Sports Guy]

Add that to a 2B man who also has a bad back and with two LFers who can't stay healthy or consistent and the offense assembled doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that they'll be able to stay healthy and consistent.

Ok fine...I can see being worried about health with the everyday players, as well as the pen.

But that is a lot different than a lot of the other stuff you are talking about.

[Aglets]

Two reasons - One, Buck gave them the confidence boost they were lacking. Guthrie explained it best on MLB Network Radio a few days ago - once a few of the pitchers got their confidence back, it spread to the rest of the staff. Expecting that to happen again twice if the offense falters again is expecting too much IMO. The "new manager" effect will no longer be able to carry them.

Two - all the pitchers were now pitching for their jobs. Nobody was safe in the rotation given the fact the offseason was approaching and pitchers could be acquired to replace those arms and they also could be traded to another team to acquire pieces to win. So they had extra motivation to play well. In Millwood's case, he probably didn't want to face the wrath of Showalter, so he rededicated himself.

Well, Millwood is gone, so we don't have to worry about him and his inability to carry any burdens anymore.

With Matusz, you really think that after allegedly getting his confidence back in August...pitching ridiculously well in the last 2 months of the season, that he will lose all that confidence by Opening Day? Seems to me he should be as confident as ever. Not to mention that he has 220 Major League innings under his belt now, in the toughest division in baseball. He's the last one of our young arms that I'm worried about.

As for Arietta, he seems to be the cockiest pitcher in our rotation by a long shot, no issues with confidence there. Guthrie has proven himself now I think. As for the other 2 rotation spots, sure, we don't really know what to expect. Bergy may not be as good as he was in 2009 but I certainly expect him to be much better than he was in 2010.

I see you still haven't addressed the issue that our team offense should be MUCH improved almost by default in 2011. nor the fact that Derrek Lee and his ailing back and injury history has played in more games in the past 3 seasons than the 2 guys you think would give us so much more stability in our lineup.

[Frobby]

How likely are those two to get hurt though over a 35 year old 1B man with a bad back coming off a thumb injury and a SS who can't stay healthy for 140 games? Add that to a 2B man who also has a bad back and with two LFers who can't stay healthy or consistent and the offense assembled doesn't exactly inspire a ton of confidence that they'll be able to stay healthy and consistent.

And then you've got zero depth behind them if they do have poor performance and injuries. There's no failsafe.

Everybody has to stay healthy and perform or this offense will struggle signficantly which will in turn influence the quality of pitching and how much we can win.

I think you are exaggerating the extent of this problem. Derrek Lee has proven to be a very durable player throughout his career. I'd rate his chances of playing 140+ games at about 90%. In LF, we have two guys, plus we have a DH who is quite competent to play the spot. In the middle infield, we would take a big offensive hit if someone goes down, but defensively we'd be fine.

I am not denying that a significant number of major injuries, or a couple of injuries to our most important players, could derail our offense. That's true of most teams. I don't feel like this is a bigger risk for the Orioles than other teams. Hell, half the Yankee lineup qualifies for AARP. The Red Sox have a half-dozen guys coming off surgery or major injuries. Why are Lee, Hardy, BRob or Pie a bigger injury risk than those guys?

[ChaosLex]

[SilentJames]

You worry about health and you want to add an ancient Vlad with a bad back?

Your argument is awful and makes no real sense.

[JTrea81]

And you think adding a 35 year old DH with a bad back is a substantial upgrade?

Vlad looked pretty healthy last year.

It's adding a failsafe when we don't have one.

Where's the harm in doing that? But as I said, that's for another thread.

[JTrea81]

I think you are exaggerating the extent of this problem. Derrek Lee has proven to be a very durable player throughout his career. I'd rate his chances of playing 140+ games at about 90%. In LF, we have two guys, plus we have a DH who is quite competent to play the spot. In the middle infield, we would take a big offensive hit if someone goes down, but defensively we'd be fine.

I am not denying that a significant number of major injuries, or a couple of injuries to our most important players, could derail our offense. That's true of most teams. I don't feel like this is a bigger risk for the Orioles than other teams. Hell, half the Yankee lineup qualifies for AARP. The Red Sox have a half-dozen guys coming off surgery or major injuries. Why are Lee, Hardy, BRob or Pie a bigger injury risk than those guys?

Because they've already missed significant time with injuries and this team has yet to show it can compensate for a major injury to one player let alone two or three.

I know every team has question marks, but how many teams have the number question marks that we do, and have the injury history with key players that we do and lack the depth to replace those players like we do?

I doubt you'll find many competitive teams like that.

There's a lot riding on the health and performance of this offense this season, moreso than the pitching.