Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

[OrangeJerseys]

Or the Giants. Or the Phillies and why they added Cliff Lee to an already ridiculous rotation.

But yeah, pitching doesn't matter until you get to the playoffs.

Bingo was his name-o.

:vader:

[Camden_yardbird]

Time to increase the offensive projections.

The Rays just signed Kyle Farnsworth

[Sports Guy]

I do think that having a better offense helps the pitchers to perform better. I think you are overstating the extent of that effect, however. And, I think the converse also is true, i.e., getting better pitching helps the offense. So, I don't think this adds anything to a discussion of what is "more important."

Yep..I am sure this will get ignored but it is a 2 way street if you want to argue like Trea does.

I mean, if the pitching sucks and the hitters feel they have to score 5+ runs a game, doesn't that mean they could press and struggle?

[Frobby]

Yep..I am sure this will get ignored but it is a 2 way street if you want to argue like Trea does.

I mean, if the pitching sucks and the hitters feel they have to score 5+ runs a game, doesn't that mean they could press and struggle?

I think if you look at 2008, we had a great offense over the summer but once the pitching started allowing 6-7 runs every single day, the position players just grew tired of it and went badly downhill in September as a result.

[DrungoHazewood]

The offense BLEW in those months...Your argument is so awful.

And boy, did you ever think that the pitching got better because the young pitchers gained more experience and actually improved on their own? Nah, no chance of that, right?

This is pretty simple:

Mo    R    RAAp   3.3   5.1Ma   3.6   4.8Jn   3.8   6.0Jl   3.8   5.9Au   4.0   3.6Sp   4.2   3.9

The offense was putrid in April, mediocre the rest of the year. The run prevention was terrible from April through July, and great in August and September.

The only big discontinuity in the data is that the run prevention got markedly better after Buck took over. The offense barely budged.

The O's played .586 ball over the last two months with an offense that would have ranked 11th in the American League.

[Hank Scorpio]

The offense BLEW in those months...Your argument is so awful.

And boy, did you ever think that the pitching got better because the young pitchers gained more experience and actually improved on their own? Nah, no chance of that, right?

They couldn't improve on their own without protection in the rotation.

[Hank Scorpio]

This is pretty simple:

Mo    R    RAAp   3.3   5.1Ma   3.6   4.8Jn   3.8   6.0Jl   3.8   5.9Au   4.0   3.6Sp   4.2   3.9

The offense was putrid in April, mediocre the rest of the year. The run prevention was terrible from April through July, and great in August and September.

The only big discontinuity in the data is that the run prevention got markedly better after Buck took over. The offense barely budged.

The O's played .586 ball over the last two months with an offense that would have ranked 11th in the American League.

Against predominantly AL East opponents, IIRC.

[Tony-OH]

This is pretty simple:

Mo    R    RAAp   3.3   5.1Ma   3.6   4.8Jn   3.8   6.0Jl   3.8   5.9Au   4.0   3.6Sp   4.2   3.9

The offense was putrid in April, mediocre the rest of the year. The run prevention was terrible from April through July, and great in August and September.

The only big discontinuity in the data is that the run prevention got markedly better after Buck took over. The offense barely budged.

The O's played .586 ball over the last two months with an offense that would have ranked 11th in the American League.

Pretty much game, set, match!!

[Sports Guy]

Pretty much game, set, match!!

And it will be ignored.

[SilentJames]

Considering the Buck love fest you've shown since the day he got here, why shouldn't it? If Buck is the difference maker that you feel and have argued he is, down to being the one who is in charge of the organization, why shouldn't it help?

Jtrea's arguments:

More motion than a Peyton Manning Offense.

More motion than a samba class during an earthquake

Waffle more than a waffle house on free waffle Wednesdays during a Belgian Heritage Week.

Change more than Peter Sellers' accents during Dr. Strangelove

More obtuse than the Silmarillion

[Frobby]

Lets look at 2004 as an example of pitching and offense, because I argue that this is the best collection of players we have since then:

2004: 78-84

RS: 842 (6)

ERA: 4.70 (7)

There were a couple of factors at play then that are no longer the case, specifically the Blue Jays and Rays were atrocious that season. Even if they take a step back with the loss of Crawford et al, I find it unlikely the Rays finish below .500, and the Blue Jays are a total wild card.

Even with an almost perfect balance in production on the offensive and pitching side, the Orioles still finished below .500, in a very down AL East. Now, I realize that they made great strides that season as well, but the results don't lie.

So explain to me how anything other than a top five, and more likely top three offense coupled with a 4.60-4.70 team ERA is going to get us to .500 plus in a the improved and meaner AL East.

I agree with your final paragraph, but I'm not sure the bolded sentence has much to do with it. The 2004 O's scored 842 and allowed 830. The 78-84 record is within the typical margin of error for the pythagorean formula for deciding W/L. I don't think the division the Orioles play in effects that, one way or the other.

The reall point is that a 4.70 ERA was decent in the 2004 run scoring environment, but it is very subpar now, no matter what division you play in. It would be very difficult to have a winning record with an ERA like that, unless the overall run environment changes course.

[Moose Milligan]

And it will be ignored.

Or spun around somehow.

[Big Al]

Wow, I must have nodded off at my computer. I dreampt we significantly improved our offense by adding Derek Lee, JJ Hardy and Mark Reynolds, but then I woke up and read this thread so I guess it was all just a dream.

[JTrea81]

This is pretty simple:

Mo    R    RAAp   3.3   5.1Ma   3.6   4.8Jn   3.8   6.0Jl   3.8   5.9Au   4.0   3.6Sp   4.2   3.9

The offense was putrid in April, mediocre the rest of the year. The run prevention was terrible from April through July, and great in August and September.

The only big discontinuity in the data is that the run prevention got markedly better after Buck took over. The offense barely budged.

The O's played .586 ball over the last two months with an offense that would have ranked 11th in the American League.

That's great, but that pace for the pitching likely can't be sustained as there were factors that won't be repeatable.

I think everybody on here said they would be happy with an 85 win season right? Well the Orioles don't have to pitch like they did in August and September and they can still achieve it, thus the offense is the most important factor.

As SG said the pitching doesn't have to improve much if at all, it's the offense that has to take a giant step forward. If the pitching basically treads water and has a season in between what they did in April/May and September/October, the Orioles have what they need to get to that 85 win season pitching wise.

Now the Orioles did improve the offense and the defense, but they improved it with more question marks, not sure answers. And injuries are pretty likely considering the players that were signed meaning the offense and defense will likely decline - ie Izturis for Hardy, Luke Scott at 1B instead of Lee. If that causes the offense not to show up like last year, the pitching is going to have to shoulder the burden to make it to .500 or above and that's too much to ask of your arms as we saw last season.

[Aglets]

That's great, but that pace for the pitching likely can't be sustained as there were factors that won't be repeatable.

I think everybody on here said they would be happy with an 85 win season right? Well the Orioles don't have to pitch like they did in August and September and they can still achieve it, thus the offense is the most important factor.

As SG said the pitching doesn't have to improve much if at all, it's the offense that has to take a giant step forward. If the pitching basically treads water and has a season in between what they did in April/May and September/October, the Orioles have what they need to get to that 85 win season pitching wise.

I just realized something, I can PROVE that the young pitching is the most important factor for the O's in 2011.

Here's the proof:

It's *possible* for the Orioles to have a winning record this season (indeed, they could even win around 60% of their games) with great pitching and a mediocre offense.

This proves that the pitching is the most important.

Your response?