Offense, not pitching is going to be the key to 2011

[Sports Guy]

I do agree with you that for us to be a 500ish team, we need more improvement from the offense than we do from pitching.

HOWEVER, to be a contender, the pitching has to improve as much, if not more, than the offense...of course, the defense also needs to vastly improve but that is tied into the pitching.

You can always find stuff like this in small sample sizes.

If the Orioles have a 20 game stretch where they score 6 runs a games but give up 7 runs a game, they will likely lose more than they will win...The offense showed up there but the pitching didn't.

No doubt the offense must improve...In fact, as I said, the offense needs a larger improvement than the pitching does for us to be a 500 team. But pitching/defense is still what matters the most, especially in the playoffs.

I do think people underestimate how good our offense needs to be though.

That's great, but that pace for the pitching likely can't be sustained as there were factors that won't be repeatable.

First of all, good call on the spinning Moose.

However, isn't it also unlikely that the poor offense can't be sustained?

As SG said the pitching doesn't have to improve much if at all, it's the offense that has to take a giant step forward. If the pitching basically treads water and has a season in between what they did in April/May and September/October, the Orioles have what they need to get to that 85 win season pitching wise.

Now the Orioles did improve the offense, but they improved it with more question marks, not sure answers. And if the offense doesn't show up like last year, the pitching is going to have to shoulder the burden to make it to .500 and that's too much to ask of your arms as we saw last season.

No, i said the offense needs a larger improvement than the pitching does...but the pitching still has to improve.

And btw, you have basically said it will be a waste of a season if we don't contend and I was pretty clear about the pitching needing a large improvement to contend. I mean, that's why they play, right?

What non question marks should the Orioles have used to improve the offense? A third baseman with a career OPS below 800 and a poor OBP..Beltre? Or perhaps an aging DH with a bad back, no versatility and H/R splits that favor a great hitters park? Guys like that? They have no question marks? Really?

[Aglets]

If that causes the offense not to show up like last year, the pitching is going to have to shoulder the burden to make it to .500 or above and that's too much to ask of your arms as we saw last season.

Which young arms had trouble shouldering the burden and started to struggle towards the end of the season? I'll settle for just two names. Guys who started off well but the burden was too much for them in late summer.

[clarence]

Any chance another team could wine and dine jtrea and get him to change his allegiance?

[JTrea81]

I just realized something, I can PROVE that the young pitching is the most important factor for the O's in 2011.

Here's the proof:

It's *possible* for the Orioles to have a winning record this season (indeed, they could even win around 60% of their games) with great pitching and a mediocre offense.

This proves that the pitching is the most important.

Your response?

So you think those pitchers are going to remain focused and confident only getting less than 4 runs per game over the course of the entire season?

It's possible, but highly unlikely IMO. As you'd have to have the pitching remain healthy and consistent, and our starters just aren't at the consistent part yet. They'll get there, but for now they need to be able to win games and get that confidence without having to throw a shutout every time they are on the mound.

Even Jon Lester himself can't win with only 1 run per game:

July 18

Facing Texas at home, Lester had an early 1-0 lead but saw it vanish on one play when Nelson Cruz hit an RBI double and then came home from third on a throwing error. The Rangers scored a third run the next inning on a steal of home, naturally on one of Lester's six strikeouts on the day. He went eight innings, gave up three earned runs and received one run of support.

July 24

This was a doozy. Lester retired the first 16 men he faced before center fielder Eric Patterson dropped a fly ball, spoiling the All-Star's bid for a perfect game in the sixth. The shutout and the lead went out the window moments later when little-known Michael Saunders took Lester deep. Three more runs came in during the eighth inning, one on a bunt and another when reliever Manny Delcarmen forced in one of Lester's five runs allowed by hitting a batter with the bases loaded. Boston scored one run on a night in which Lester was absolutely dominant but still lost 5-1.

July 30

Against Detroit at home, Lester had what he called his worst stuff of the year, and it showed. He gave up a career-high 11 hits and two home runs for the first time since May 9. However, for the third straight game, the Red Sox scored exactly one run in support of Lester. Again his margin for error was razor thin.

http://www.nesn.com/2010/08/new-baby-no-run-support-among-reasons-for-jon-lesters-secondhalf-struggles.html

The offense is going to have to be there to support the pitching. If it's not, the Orioles aren't making the improvement in the standings that everybody hopes they will as pitching alone will not carry this club. We simply don't have the arms to make that happen.

[DrungoHazewood]

Now the Orioles did improve the offense and the defense, but they improved it with more question marks, not sure answers.

All players are question marks. There are no sure answers. All acquisitons carry with them risk. Don't fool yourself into thinking otherwise.

[Sports Guy]

So you think those pitchers are going to remain focused and confident only getting less than 4 runs per game over the course of the entire season

Will the offense remained focused if they the pitching gives up 5+ runs a game?

[DrungoHazewood]

Even Jon Lester himself can't win with only 1 run per game:

http://www.nesn.com/2010/08/new-baby-no-run-support-among-reasons-for-jon-lesters-secondhalf-struggles.html

The offense is going to have to be there to support the pitching. If it's not, the Orioles aren't making the improvement in the standings that everybody hopes they will as pitching alone will not carry this club. We simply don't have the arms to make that happen.

That's a beautiful strawman. You won't have to worry about crows in your garden ever, ever again.

Of course no semi-coherent human being ever suggested that the O's would be fine scoring one run a game (in other words, 451 fewer than they did in 2010).

You've tried to make the argument that the 750-ish run team that the Orioles have assembled for 2011 is the rough equivalent of a team that scores no runs at all. Huzzah!

[OsLuvrInKy]

So you think those pitchers are going to remain focused and confident only getting less than 4 runs per game over the course of the entire season?

It's possible, but highly unlikely IMO. As you'd have to have the pitching remain healthy and consistent, and our starters just aren't at the consistent part yet. They'll get there, but for now they need to be able to win games and get that confidence without having to throw a shutout every time they are on the mound.

Even Jon Lester himself can't win with only 1 run per game:

http://www.nesn.com/2010/08/new-baby-no-run-support-among-reasons-for-jon-lesters-secondhalf-struggles.html

The offense is going to have to be there to support the pitching. If it's not, the Orioles aren't making the improvement in the standings that everybody hopes they will as pitching alone will not carry this club. We simply don't have the arms to make that happen.

Do you know what this tells me? That even the team you throw up in my face all the time can;t support thier pitchers all the time.

I have a question for you Trea. Do you know Earl Weaver? He must have had you in mind when he issued the quote in my signature...

"Nobody likes to hear it, but the reason you win or lose is darn near always the same- pitching.”

I figure since you don't want to hear that he was thinking of you when he said that......:rofl:

[Aglets]

I don't think that the Orioles pitchers will have a collective ERA of 3.XX at the end of the season. Nor do I think that they need to. Only one team in our division had an ERA under 4 last year (Rays).

Something else I think you're purposefully dodging is the fact that our offense by all rights should be vastly improved from last year. Even if all of our regulars from 2010 remain perfectly stagnant. Pretend that guys like Wieters, Jones, Markakis, Pie don't improve at all. We still have almost half of our lineup all redone.

Derrek Lee should be 1000x better than Atkins.

Hardy should be 1000x better than Izzy.

Reynolds should be far better than a Tejada / Wiggy / josh bell hybrid.

Brob should be far better than Lugo/Andino, whoever else we threw out there.

Those details are significant Trea. We get that you don't want to give Andy much credit for acquiring these names (because they have so many question marks apparently? with injury issues and the such? and they don't have any of the last names you like)

What's so amusing is you're lobbying for the acquisition of guys like Thome and Vlad (for the record I'd love to get them too) to improve our offense and in the SAME BREATH you criticize Lee and Hardy for being injury prone!

Who has played in more games in the last 3 years......Lee, Guerrero, or Thome?

Here's a hint, it's the guy currently in an O's uniform.

You're looking for a team with no question marks? Yea, let me know when you find one of those....

[Crazysilver03]

All along, you were saying that this team needed protection in the line-up, yet Markakis has come out and said that he is excited to have Lee hitting behind him for protection purposes.

I don't think you can or want to be happy.

[JTrea81]

Which young arms had trouble shouldering the burden and started to struggle towards the end of the season? I'll settle for just two names. Guys who started off well but the burden was too much for them in late summer.

Well I said arms - not young arms as they were inconsistent throughout

Millwood is the perfect example:

April: 3.38 ERA, 0-3

May: 4.25 ERA, 0-2

June 8.82 ERA, 2-3

July 10.66 ERA, 0-2

After going 0-5 in 11 starts for April and May despite having an ERA under 4.00, Millwood just quit trying IMO.

Brian Matusz would the best example of a young arm:

3-9 on July 5th

Worst month July when he went 1-2 with a 8.10 ERA.

The month before he was 0-4 with a 3.69 ERA.

These pitchers didn't get the run support when they pitched well, and thus pitched poorly eventually because of that IMO.

[Crazysilver03]

Well I said arms - not young arms as they were inconsistent throughout

Millwood is the perfect example:

April: 3.38 ERA, 0-3

May: 4.25 ERA, 0-2

June 8.82 ERA, 2-3

July 10.66 ERA, 0-2

After going 0-5 in 11 starts for April and May despite having an ERA under 4.00, Millwood just quit trying IMO.

Brian Matusz would the best example of a young arm:

3-9 on July 5th

Worst month July when he went 1-2 with a 8.10 ERA.

The month before he was 0-4 with a 3.69 ERA.

These pitchers didn't get the run support when they pitched well, and thus pitched poorly eventually because of that IMO.

Hmm...:scratchchinhmm:

Your excuse for Vlad's poor numbers in the middle of the season was from him wilting in the heat. Well, that is my excuse for why Millwood and Matusz suffered so bad in the summer. :slytf:

[Sports Guy]

Well I said arms - not young arms as they were inconsistent throughout

Millwood is the perfect example:

April: 3.38 ERA, 0-3

May: 4.25 ERA, 0-2

June 8.82 ERA, 2-3

July 10.66 ERA, 0-2

After going 0-5 in 11 starts for April and May despite having an ERA under 4.00, Millwood just quit trying IMO.

Brian Matusz would the best example of a young arm:

3-9 on July 5th

Worst month July when he went 1-2 with a 8.10 ERA.

The month before he was 0-4 with a 3.69 ERA.

These pitchers didn't get the run support when they pitched well, and thus pitched poorly eventually because of that IMO.

So how could they have pitched well when the offense sucked in the second half of the season?

How do you not see how awful and inconsistent your argument is?

[Sports Guy]

BMat had a high BABIP, especially early on....Was that the fault of the offense too?

[Aglets]

So if Millwood and Matusz struggled in July because they were unable to shoulder the burden of an inept offense......what happened after that?

The burden certainly didn't change that much. The offense was essentially the same, yet they both improved substantially. What was that all about?

How can you say they were sucking because of some overwhelming burden......but in the last 2 months when the burden is still there (and since they've been carrying this burden since april i can only imagine how heavy it must have felt......sometimes I even have trouble carrying my suitcase from a bus stop to a location a few blocks away) they actually pitched some of their BEST baseball?

Don't you think that a rational and logical person would say that there must have been some other explanation?