Holding the 4th pick, who are we looking at drafting?

[Stotle]

Stotle, if you were running the O's draft at 4, would Machado influence your decision at all?

In general, I subscribe to the BPA theory. Recent example, TB should have selected Posey even though they felt Navarro was their in-house catcher of the future.

I feel that when evaluating SS - the question comes down to - how much "value" is being created by that respective player's ability to play SS. In other words, are his other tools inflated when compared to a SS but only average when viewed in context of other positions.

So is this Lindor kid a BJ Upton (whose skills played elsewhere on the diamond) or a Tim Beckham (ordinary hit tools overall that played up because of SS)? Perhaps this is too much hindsight is 20-20 on Beckham, but you get the idea.

Machado wouldn't influence me at all because I'm not sold on him as a future shortstop. Even if I were, if I thought Lindor was the best talent available, and no comparable talent was at a position of need, he would be my choice.

Regarding Lindor in particular, I love him. Love everything about his game, on-field presence, make-up, demeanor and tools. I think some are way too quick to project power (even if he is showing some pop right now), but he is a joy to watch in the field and I have no doubt he sticks at short long term. Top 5 may be a bit rich more my taste, given the talents in this class, but I can understand the hype over a multi-talented prep shortstop, for sure.

Someone who didn't get enough pre-season hype from most pundits is Javier Baez, who I see is now in Law's Top 50. The two of the (Baez/Lindor) played on the FTB Mizuno St. Louis Cardinals Scout Team down in Jupiter, with Lindor at SS and Baez rotating between 3b, 2b and a little catcher. Baez is a fine defender in his own right and Lindor stood out as clearly better, in my opinion. The only prep shortstop who I've seen this year who might outdistance Lindor in the defense department is Georgia prepster Julius Gaines (who I see Law now has just outside his Top 50). Gaines was a wizard on the Athletics (Southeast) squad at Area Code Games and duplicated those efforts in Jupiter with the Royals Scout Team (team with a number of other draft standouts, including Daniel Norris, who didn't pitch down there!, Mike Kelly, Derek Fisher, Ahmad Christian, etc.).

In fact, I might give Gaines the edge, defensively. But Lindor's switch-hitting and hit tool a grade higher makes him the clear choice between the two.

[allstar1579]

Machado wouldn't influence me at all because I'm not sold on him as a future shortstop. Even if I were, if I thought Lindor was the best talent available, and no comparable talent was at a position of need, he would be my choice.

Regarding Lindor in particular, I love him. Love everything about his game, on-field presence, make-up, demeanor and tools. I think some are way too quick to project power (even if he is showing some pop right now), but he is a joy to watch in the field and I have no doubt he sticks at short long term. Top 5 may be a bit rich more my taste, given the talents in this class, but I can understand the hype over a multi-talented prep shortstop, for sure.

Someone who didn't get enough pre-season hype from most pundits is Javier Baez, who I see is now in Law's Top 50. The two of the (Baez/Lindor) played on the FTB Mizuno St. Louis Cardinals Scout Team down in Jupiter, with Lindor at SS and Baez rotating between 3b, 2b and a little catcher. Baez is a fine defender in his own right and Lindor stood out as clearly better, in my opinion. The only prep shortstop who I've seen this year who might outdistance Lindor in the defense department is Georgia prepster Julius Gaines (who I see Law now has just outside his Top 50). Gaines was a wizard on the Athletics (Southeast) squad at Area Code Games and duplicated those efforts in Jupiter with the Royals Scout Team (team with a number of other draft standouts, including Daniel Norris, who didn't pitch down there!, Mike Kelly, Derek Fisher, Ahmad Christian, etc.).

In fact, I might give Gaines the edge, defensively. But Lindor's switch-hitting and hit tool a grade higher makes him the clear choice between the two.

Any read on how much it's going to take to sign Lindor? Once you get into that lump of players that are close together he's one of my favorites, and I wonder if it's a situation where you can save some money on Lindor in the first and then go over for someone who drops in the 2nd? (not that I have a lot of faith that they would actually do it well)

[Stotle]

Any read on how much it's going to take to sign Lindor? Once you get into that lump of players that are close together he's one of my favorites, and I wonder if it's a situation where you can save some money on Lindor in the first and then go over for someone who drops in the 2nd? (not that I have a lot of faith that they would actually do it well)

I'd be shocked if he didn't sign, but I'm not aware of any announced demands. He certainly has leverage as maybe the only elite middle-infield prospect in the draft.

[allstar1579]

I'd be shocked if he didn't sign, but I'm not aware of any announced demands. He certainly has leverage as maybe the only elite middle-infield prospect in the draft.

Yeah I figured that comes with a certain premium, but I hadn't heard anything about strong college commitments or anything, so I figured that was showing a willingness to sign. I just worry that I love guys before the draft, and then after once there are numbers attached to it I don't love them as much at certain prices. It's like...Lindor at $4m or Hultzen at $2.5m (hypothetical numbers).

[Stotle]

Yeah I figured that comes with a certain premium, but I hadn't heard anything about strong college commitments or anything, so I figured that was showing a willingness to sign. I just worry that I love guys before the draft, and then after once there are numbers attached to it I don't love them as much at certain prices. It's like...Lindor at $4m or Hultzen at $2.5m (hypothetical numbers).

Understood -- I had Posey #1 in 2008 and dropped him down my preference list because of his $10M demands.

Lindor is committed to FSU -- I would not expect his commitment to prevent him from signing. We'll see what shakes down as we get closer to June.

[Frobby]

That would be the normal assumption, but Mr. Hultzen spent all spring telling area scouts not to talk to Danny and that he had zero intention of signing. After the Diamondbacks drafted him, I've heard Mr. Hultzen flipped out, screamed at the 'Zona reps (area scout and I believe scouting director) and was most upset with them going explicitly against his wishes.

Flash-forward, I know more than one area guy has heard/experienced (honestly not sure which from the texts) that Mr. Hultzen will be heavily involved in the draft process again, including home visits/interviews now, workouts, and negotiations.

That is very interesting. Still, I kind of doubt he would stand in the way of his son getting drafted as early as possible, since that gives him his best bargaining position. Just out of curiosity, does AZ have the same scouting director they had 3 years ago?

Now, if Hultzen thought he'd be picked by the O's at no. 4, maybe he'd be inclined to say no to Arizona so he could play close to home. When does he have to tell Arizona whether he'll waive his right to block them from picking him?

[Stotle]

That is very interesting. Still, I kind of doubt he would stand in the way of his son getting drafted as early as possible, since that gives him his best bargaining position. Just out of curiosity, does AZ have the same scouting director they had 3 years ago?

Now, if Hultzen thought he'd be picked by the O's at no. 4, maybe he'd be inclined to say no to Arizona so he could play close to home. When does he have to tell Arizona whether he'll waive his right to block them from picking him?

Agreements are usually signed at the end of May as part of the draft prep for players. I think Arizona makes a ton of sense from an extra pick perspective, and teams high on probability could have Hultzen as the second best arm in the draft. It isn't that I don't believe Arizona will draft Hultzen -- I just find it suspect that they would have already worked out a pre-draft deal for him one month into the season (which is where the whole convo started). I don't think they would lock in on a player that early, I don't think Hultzen would go on record with an amount he'll accept two months away from the draft, and I don't think the Hultzen camp seems like a camp that puts draft negotiations in the forefront of their priorities.

[Frobby]

Agreements are usually signed at the end of May as part of the draft prep for players. I think Arizona makes a ton of sense from an extra pick perspective, and teams high on probability could have Hultzen as the second best arm in the draft. It isn't that I don't believe Arizona will draft Hultzen -- I just find it suspect that they would have already worked out a pre-draft deal for him one month into the season (which is where the whole convo started). I don't think they would lock in on a player that early, I don't think Hultzen would go on record with an amount he'll accept two months away from the draft, and I don't think the Hultzen camp seems like a camp that puts draft negotiations in the forefront of their priorities.

I agree with everything you say here. I'm just asking my questions out of general curiosity about Hultzen, not because I believe he has already reached any kind of deal with Arizona. He is from Bethesda, where I live, and he was the DC All-Met Player of the Year as a senior, so he has always been of interest to me since I first heard of him.

[Stotle]

I agree with everything you say here. I'm just asking my questions out of general curiosity about Hultzen, not because I believe he has already reached any kind of deal with Arizona. He is from Bethesda, where I live, and he was the DC All-Met Player of the Year as a senior, so he has always been of interest to me since I first heard of him.

Oh, certainly. I was just clarifying my message since we drifted a bit deeper into the "what if" than I intended.

Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if we end up seeing BAL pop him at 1:4. Lefty with three solid pitches and solid command w/a track record at a solid college program. I could see Jordan jumping on that -- particularly with the local angle.

[Stotle]

I agree with everything you say here. I'm just asking my questions out of general curiosity about Hultzen, not because I believe he has already reached any kind of deal with Arizona. He is from Bethesda, where I live, and he was the DC All-Met Player of the Year as a senior, so he has always been of interest to me since I first heard of him.

BA has some recent quotes from Hultzen's dad, Chris:

Re: Draft after high school and whether his son is staying a fourth year

"I think we're waiting to see how things develop," Chris Hultzen said. "The most important thing when he was in high school was that he go to college. That he graduates someday is certainly something that we want him to do and that he wants to do, whether it's after playing pro ball or whether it's four consecutive years at Virginia, I think we're going to just have to wait and see. He hasn't particularly decided at this point, but there's no hard and fast guarantee that he's going to stay for four years, we're just going to wait and see how it develops."

Re: Draft now

"It's pretty exciting for him, but he's being sheltered from it," Chris Hultzen said. "We've asked the scouts basically to leave him alone and let him focus on his pitching."

[allstar1579]

BA has some recent quotes from Hultzen's dad, Chris:

Re: Draft after high school and whether his son is staying a fourth year

"I think we're waiting to see how things develop," Chris Hultzen said. "The most important thing when he was in high school was that he go to college. That he graduates someday is certainly something that we want him to do and that he wants to do, whether it's after playing pro ball or whether it's four consecutive years at Virginia, I think we're going to just have to wait and see. He hasn't particularly decided at this point, but there's no hard and fast guarantee that he's going to stay for four years, we're just going to wait and see how it develops."

Re: Draft now

"It's pretty exciting for him, but he's being sheltered from it," Chris Hultzen said. "We've asked the scouts basically to leave him alone and let him focus on his pitching."

Speaking of... AZ WANTED to sign him to a predraft deal when it looked like he was going in the 15ish range. Now that his stock has been moving up a bit it doesn't look like he'd agree to that. Source thinks that AZ is willing to take him at 3 if he'd sign for slot so they can afford a little more room in negotiations at #7. Similar pitchers have signed in the $2.5m range recently, so it could be a win all around.

[palmer22]

Keith Law says in his latest draft blog that Dylan Bundy looked better on Thursday night than Taillon looked at any point last year. Also believes at this point he's a top six pick...

[ChaosLex]

Keith Law says in his latest draft blog that Dylan Bundy looked better on Thursday night than Taillon looked at any point last year. Also believes at this point he's a top six pick...

I'd be down for adding the other Bundy brother.

[rhall]

Keith Law says in his latest draft blog that Dylan Bundy looked better on Thursday night than Taillon looked at any point last year. Also believes at this point he's a top six pick...

Just thought I'd provide a link, and a more extensive quote:

His outing on Thursday was one of the two best performances I've ever seen from a high school pitcher; I saw Tyler Matzek toy with hitters in throwing a no-hitter in March of 2009, but he didn't have the raw power of Bundy, where hitters had no chance the moment they left the dugout. Bundy was better on Thursday than Jameson Taillon was at any point last spring, and in a class with Rick Porcello from 2007. The consensus among scouts I've talked to about this year's class has Bundy and South Carolina right-hander Taylor Guerrieri (whom I'll see next month) as the top two prep arms for this year's draft, and it's hard for me to see Bundy getting out of the top six picks given what he showed in Bartlesville.