Would you draft Bubba Starling?

[Sports Guy]

Sure, but that's almost impossible to measure in terms of a hit rate. Focusing on top prospects gives us a way to do that.

So, the only way to judge whether you develop a player well or not is if they are a top prospect?

What about Xavier Avery? If he never develops his tools, what was he?

[hoosiers]

I do not know if our organization has ever had as many hitters as it does today with an OPS north of 800.

I have to think our coaching of hitters has improved dramatically from eight to ten years ago.

I think Starling has the type of tools that Jordan (and many other SDs) salivates over.

I would have little issue with drafting Starling (or Bundy).

[allstar1579]

Starling is from my hometown, kind of. I am from Olathe, and Olathe has grown out to engulf Gardner Kansas. I have known Starlings Dad my whole life. Bubba is a great kid, and an absolutely awesome athlete. But that may be part of the problem with drafting him. I think he is a very tough sign, because he loves football so much. It will be hard imo to pry him away from his commitment to play football at Nebraska. I am very happy for the kid, whatever he does he can't lose. He can go to college and play in the NFL if that is what he wants. He could take the money now, and go the MLB route.

If Bubba is available when the 4 pick comes up, it will be hard not to draft him. I would love for him to be an Oriole. But it won't surprise me if he slips down closer to 10, because my gut tells me he will go the college football route.

I had the same vibes about Tate too, that he was a hardcore football guy and I didn't expect him to sign, but he got a TON of money thrown his way and ended up taking it. Never know with these kids.

[SrMeowMeow]

So, the only way to judge whether you develop a player well or not is if they are a top prospect?

What about Xavier Avery? If he never develops his tools, what was he?

It's not the only way, it's just the easiest way to introduce a little rigor. I don't accept anecdotal results as meaningful.

Long story short, not counting the current under 25 crowd, we have had very few prospects, hitters or pitchers, have even a solid ML career over the past 13 years. I don't see any evidence that we're worse with hitters. Is there any?

[Stotle]

It's not the only way, it's just the easiest way to introduce a little rigor. I don't accept anecdotal results as meaningful.

Long story short, not counting the current under 25 crowd, we have had very few prospects, hitters or pitchers, have even a solid ML career over the past 13 years. I don't see any evidence that we're worse with hitters. Is there any?

Well this is overboard, but I understand the modern enlightened fans have a desire to prove or disprove everything empirically. I think it's a fruitless effort in this arena, but if you'd like to try then knock yourself out. Reminds me of the internet "studies" that show hit rates for players drafted in certain rounds as if talent or supposed talent was consistently slotted across drafts. Shrug.

[SrMeowMeow]

Well this is overboard, but I understand the modern enlightened fans have a desire to prove or disprove everything empirically. I think it's a fruitless effort in this arena, but if you'd like to try then knock yourself out. Reminds me of the internet "studies" that show hit rates for players drafted in certain rounds as if talent or supposed talent was consistently slotted across drafts. Shrug.

Well, that aside...do you personally see a trend in our organization, not that we develop hitters poorly, but that we develop hitters more poorly than pitchers?

[Sports Guy]

It's not the only way, it's just the easiest way to introduce a little rigor. I don't accept anecdotal results as meaningful.

Long story short, not counting the current under 25 crowd, we have had very few prospects, hitters or pitchers, have even a solid ML career over the past 13 years. I don't see any evidence that we're worse with hitters. Is there any?

So, when a player who isn't a top prospect, is developed into a very good player(take Zobrist for example), then what kind of credit should be given out?

[Sports Guy]

Well, that aside...do you personally see a trend in our organization, not that we develop hitters poorly, but that we develop hitters more poorly than pitchers?

I am not sure how you can say we have developed pitchers poorly, especially in the last 5 years.

The entire staff is basically been brought up and we have dealt a guy like DH who also is doing well.

[Stotle]

Well, that aside...do you personally see a trend in our organization, not that we develop hitters poorly, but that we develop hitters more poorly than pitchers?

I have no idea. I don't think the organization has developed much over the past decade. I do not think the concept of developing hitters or pitchers MORE poorly is particularly useful. As a fan, I'd feel most comfortable with a player that will spend as little time as possible in the minors, be it a hitter or a pitcher.

[SrMeowMeow]

I have no idea. I don't think the organization has developed much over the past decade. I do not think the concept of developing hitters or pitchers MORE poorly is particularly useful. As a fan, I'd feel most comfortable with a player that will spend as little time as possible in the minors, be it a hitter or a pitcher.

Right, that's all I'm saying.

[Scrat1]

I wouldn't draft him.

Due to ballpark and division, it's much easier for the Orioles to sign free agent bats than it is to bring in pitchers. Generally speaking, it's almost always easier to find stop gap position players. There are almost always Pattersons, Lees and Matsuis out there, while it's very difficult to find reliable starting pitching.

If Starling were clearly the BPA, such as Machado last year, then I would be fine drafting him. But considering there are a great deal of very good arms available, I'd much rather go that route. Keep the pitchers coming. Ideally we get a guy that's ready to step up soon after Guthrie leaves.

1. Britton

2. Matusz

3. Arrieta

4. Hultzen/Gray/etc.

5. Tillman/Bergesen/Bundy

Yes, please.

[Sports Guy]

Law threw out the idea that Starling may want Harper money to sign?

[Stotle]

Law threw out the idea that Starling may want Harper money to sign?

In other words, the top position player in the draft is floating the idea of getting a deal comparable to that received by the best the previous year? Shocking.

He could get Harper's bonus (which was "only" $6.25 M with the rest tied-up in ML money, I believe). He may even be able to approach $7 ot 8 M, since he's a two-sport guy that can have his bonus chopped-up over a few years. But I don't see him getting Harper's total package, which I think was up around $11 million?

[ThisIsOurHouse]

I have a question, are any of these guys likely to get signed quickly and play shorrt season ball after being signed?

I am a big fan of Starling but here is my problem, he is going to be a very late sign (probably the last day based on his leverage) and is going to require a major portion of our draft budget. On top of that we need to develop his tools and also he is going to most likely lose a half a season of at bats because of the contract negotiations. I think Starling has tons of superstar potential, but I think currently where our organization is we cannot take a risk after on Starling. I would rather go after a college arm or Bundy though my mind can change as we still have about a month before the draft.

[Stotle]

I have a question, are any of these guys likely to get signed quickly and play shorrt season ball after being signed?

I am a big fan of Starling but here is my problem, he is going to be a very late sign (probably the last day based on his leverage) and is going to require a major portion of our draft budget. On top of that we need to develop his tools and also he is going to most likely lose a half a season of at bats because of the contract negotiations. I think Starling has tons of superstar potential, but I think currently where our organization is we cannot take a risk after on Starling. I would rather go after a college arm or Bundy though my mind can change as we still have about a month before the draft.

If you're willing to go down the draft board and sign someone for an agreed-upon deal you could probably get him started right away. But you're probably going to get some "Hobgood-esque" complaints.