Ok, let's say Bundy stays healthy and develops to reach his ceiling

[RVAbird]

That's a helluva cutter for a high school kid.

Excellent tool against left-handed hitters.

[Hallas]

I think he is more 94-96, bumping higher. That is a comfy 60 knocked a very little bit for command. 70 for me would be up to 98 regularly with command or mid-90s with a lot of life. 80 bump the mphs some for each (100+ straight velo or 97/98 mph with lots of life). If anything, I may be light on his command, which I have heard some evaluators I respect rate as ML average or better right now. I have no doubt it's plus as a future grade. I think the FB as a future 70 is reasonable, but I'm generally conservative as to projecting velo w/HS arms.

Fair enough. Here's an article that quoted him touching 100:

http://coachesaid.com/Blog/Michael-Swisher/2011/4/19/Dylan-Bundy-100-Miles-Per-Hour

Of course, that might have just been one of those days for him. If you consider him to be mid-90s with the ability to pump up to upper 90s, then I understand your rating. And I understand your hesitation with over-projecting HS arms; it seems fairly common that HS arms don't develop the way you'd hope in terms of increased velocity. Seems that they're more likely to improve movement/command, which offsets a loss in velocity.

[RVAbird]

Fair enough. Here's an article that quoted him touching 100:

http://coachesaid.com/Blog/Michael-Swisher/2011/4/19/Dylan-Bundy-100-Miles-Per-Hour

Of course, that might have just been one of those days for him. If you consider him to be mid-90s with the ability to pump up to upper 90s, then I understand your rating. And I understand your hesitation with over-projecting HS arms; it seems fairly common that HS arms don't develop the way you'd hope in terms of increased velocity. Seems that they're more likely to improve movement/command, which offsets a loss in velocity.

Dylan worked hard to be able to touch triple digits this year, and as some scouts say if you flash the tool you have it. I'm a bit more conservative than that, particularly with velo.

The reality is that once Dylan is throwing on 4 days rest against more consistent hitting and attempting to log 200 innings a season, he'll have to dial it down a notch. Sitting 95 and touching 98 sounds right, which is still plus velo. One of Dylan's seven tenets is to never, ever, throw a pitch with 100 percent effort in a game. He knows his body and understands what he is capable of.

[allstar1579]

Dylan worked hard to be able to touch triple digits this year, and as some scouts say if you flash the tool you have it. I'm a bit more conservative than that, particularly with velo.

The reality is that once Dylan is throwing on 4 days rest against more consistent hitting and attempting to log 200 innings a season, he'll have to dial it down a notch. Sitting 95 and touching 98 sounds right, which is still plus velo. One of Dylan's seven tenets is to never, ever, throw a pitch with 100 percent effort in a game. He knows his body and understands what he is capable of.

Yeah, just a big difference between touching 100, and being able to sit there. Bundy is a half notch below Strassy's pre-injury velo, but I'm sure he ends up sitting somewhere around 95 give or take.

[NCRaven]

What level starter are we looking at here?

Are talking a #1 starter on an ok team or are we talking an ace level guy that would be in the class of guy like Felix?

Reaches ceiling? #1 on first division team.

So what year does Sports Guy start trying to trade Bundy for Kotchman's little brother? :-)

[OrioleMagic]

Current (Future)

Motion: 55 (60)

Fastball: 55/60 (65/70)

Curve: 45/50 (60)

Change: 40 (55/60)

Cutter: 50/55 (60/65)

Control: 45/50 (60)

Command: 40/45 (55/60)

Feel: 45/50 (60)

Overall Future Potential: 58/62 (front-end starter/#1 upside)

To help a simple fan out... how would you rate Strasburg, Verlander, or even Roy Halladay now? Strasburg obviously is injured, but I am trying to be able to draw an MLB comparison, if that is possible. Thanks.

[Stotle]

To help a simple fan out... how would you rate Strasburg, Verlander, or even Roy Halladay now? Strasburg obviously is injured, but I am trying to be able to draw an MLB comparison, if that is possible. Thanks.

I think I had Strasburg a 64 or 65 overall.

I think the future grades were FB (80) CB (70) CH (65) Command (60) Feel (60) Motion (50/55)

[OrioleMagic]

Current (Future)

Motion: 55 (60)

Fastball: 55/60 (65/70)

Curve: 45/50 (60)

Change: 40 (55/60)

Cutter: 50/55 (60/65)

Control: 45/50 (60)

Command: 40/45 (55/60)

Feel: 45/50 (60)

Overall Future Potential: 58/62 (front-end starter/#1 upside)

I think I had Strasburg a 64 or 65 overall.

I think the future grades were FB (80) CB (70) CH (65) Command (60) Feel (60) Motion (50/55)

That helps me. So at this point, Bundy does not have quite the potential that Strasburg did. Which seems about right since Cole, Hultzen, and Bauer were picked ahead of him. Hopefully, Bundy stays healthy and progresses nicely.

[Stotle]

That helps me. So at this point, Bundy does not have quite the potential that Strasburg did. Which seems about right since Cole, Hultzen, and Bauer were picked ahead of him. Hopefully, Bundy stays healthy and progresses nicely.

Right. Bundy's upside doesn't match Strasburg's (or Cole's). But it's definitely #1 stuff.

[Crazysilver03]

That helps me. So at this point, Bundy does not have quite the potential that Strasburg did. Which seems about right since Cole, Hultzen, and Bauer were picked ahead of him. Hopefully, Bundy stays healthy and progresses nicely.

Hultzen went to Seattle because they wanted a college starter that could move quickly and Arizona liked Bauer a lot and also had the 3rd and 7th picks so they could spend too much money. I wouldn't say it necessarily has anything to say about Dylan.

[hoosiers]

What level starter are we looking at here?

Are talking a #1 starter on an ok team or are we talking an ace level guy that would be in the class of guy like Felix?

Bundy reaching his ceiling means the Os would have one of the best five to 10 SPs in MLB - a la Felix, Verlander, CC, etc.

[The Maestro]

If he does hit his ceiling, a rotation of D.Bundy, Matusz, Britton, Arrieta, and (B.Bundy,Tillman,Bergy or other) is gonna look pretty nice in 3 years or so. Keep growing em JJ!

[Frobby]

"Ceiling" is nice to dream about, but how often do we see it attained? Bedard, I guess, reached his ceiling (exceeded it?) before he got hurt.

[LookinUp]

"Ceiling" is nice to dream about, but how often do we see it attained? Bedard, I guess, reached his ceiling (exceeded it?) before he got hurt.

I'll bet you a dollar Stotle's rankings are based on projection, not absolute ceiling. Bundy's absolute ceiling is probably a tick higher across the board, but so was Strasburg's (except for his fastball).

[Stotle]

"Ceiling" is nice to dream about, but how often do we see it attained? Bedard, I guess, reached his ceiling (exceeded it?) before he got hurt.

High school arms are perhaps the biggest risk (generally speaking) of falling short of their "ceiling". The hope, I imagine, is that Bundy is such a workout fanatic and professional in his approach that he will be able to avoid injury and the not-uncommon occurence of HS arms losing some velo/stuff as they are asked to through higher-pressure innings against better competition on less rest.