It's time for Andy to get "MacPhailed"

[TonySoprano]

That's a stretch. Lynn was 33 and was already missing 1/3 of the season most years. Lacy was 37 and had played 125 games in a season once.

Not exactly. Lynn's OPS three years prior was 142-129-131 over 138-117-142 games.

I don't think you are taking the psychological toll into effect. It's not as easy as just replacing one team with another. Even so, I don't know how you crunched your numbers but you need some new math if you think being in the AL East only costs us two games a year.

Extend me the courtesy of reading my thread and getting back to me. I'll add to it the backup data.

[DrungoHazewood]

I don't think you are taking the psychological toll into effect. It's not as easy as just replacing one team with another. Even so, I don't know how you crunched your numbers but you need some new math if you think being in the AL East only costs us two games a year.

I wouldn't dismiss the psychological effect, either. But the reality is that a balanced schedule would just replace maybe 20 games a year against .550, maybe .600 teams, with 20 games against .500 teams. That's a couple of wins.

[DrungoHazewood]

Not exactly. Lynn's OPS three years prior was 142-129-131 over 138-117-142 games.

Ok, how about this? Would Trea have called Fred Lynn premium at 33?

[Sports Guy]

So should MacPhail have overpayed for a multi-year player to get him even if he didn't think it was the right time to do it?

This is a different argument to the one we are having.

[Sports Guy]

I think there is zero doubt that the Orioles would be closer to contention in just about any other division.

But again, what difference does that make if the Orioles won't do what is neccassary to build the organization properly?

[MikeAD]

I think there is zero doubt that the Orioles would be closer to contention in just about any other division.

But again, what difference does that make if the Orioles won't do what is neccassary to build the organization properly?

Right...we have to do a TON to right the ship, the bar is just higher. You need to win more games to get to the playoffs, 87 wins won't likely get it done here, but we are no where near an 88 win team. I think the fact that we are a terrible organization and can't put a decent team together is the main reason for a FA not coming to Baltimore. Even a few years into the losing streak (98-99) FAs were talking about Baltimore and how it was a good place to play yadda yadda. 13 years later (or however long, shoot I've lost track), it doesn't much matter.

[MikeAD]

Further on the psychological effect, it has to impact the team going to Yankee Stadium, Fenway, and Tampa 27 games a year. Past the pyschological effect, how about the cumlative effect that takes place from facing those teams? The additional pitches, the wear and tear to a bullpen? How games against those teams tend to impact subsequent games and series?

It is one thing to play against the East in limited series and have success. I think if the Central and West teams had 72 games against the East, there would be a discernable difference.

What about if we were in the West...the Rangers and Oakland beat us like we are a high school team year after year. I don't buy it, I just don't. These are grown men not scared kids. And the Rays were basement dwellers until recently. They are a good team but they certainly aren't "intimidating."

[TonySoprano]

Considering the fact that since 2000, we have a losing record against 10 of the 13 teams in the league, the psychological effect must be more profound and widespread than what we believe. Oakland, in particular, must really be screwing with our psyche.

[eddie83]

Right...we have to do a TON to right the ship, the bar is just higher. You need to win more games to get to the playoffs, 87 wins won't likely get it done here, but we are no where near an 88 win team. I think the fact that we are a terrible organization and can't put a decent team together is the main reason for a FA not coming to Baltimore. Even a few years into the losing streak (98-99) FAs were talking about Baltimore and how it was a good place to play yadda yadda. 13 years later (or however long, shoot I've lost track), it doesn't much matter.

How you build your team is impacted by the division you play in. There is no point in trying to build an 88 win team here unless it is done strictly through drafting and trades, considering where we were in 2007 and our division that is alot to ask.

[MikeAD]

Not intimidating? The Rays are again one of the 5 best teams in baseball. The Rangers and Oakland and everyone else beat the O's brains in the past 13 years because the O's sucked, and some of those opponents had quality teams of their own. If you put this 2011 O's team in 4 of baseballs 6 divisions (excluding both East's), I think they would be competitive.

I understand the fact that it is easier to win other divisions. The fact is, we are still in a poor position. Right now we need to do ALOT just to get to a team that finishes a game or two over .500. I don't think its fair to use an excuse that our division causes us to be a poor organization or its too hard to compete so we can't make the right moves. The moves we make won't make us competitive anywhere. The way the franchise is being run won't make us competitive in the near future no matter what division we are in. I will say that its easier to get to 86-87 wins than the 90 or however it takes to win our division, but it doesn't matter we aren't building to do that.

And for the Rays, when I say intimidating, I mean feared. The Rays in many ways are the best team in baseball. They can beat you a dozen different ways any day of the week but its a young core and these players have this so-called psychological effect, I don't see how they could be intimidated by the empty Tropicana Field with a bunch of players who are young. The Yankees and Red Sox have some of the most elite players in baseball. The Rays do too, but I don't know who would you more "psychologically" like to pitch to, ARod or Sam Fuld.

[Roll Tide]

To answer your question, I'd say Tejada (1st tour). Prior to that, who was the last marquee free agent? Albert Belle in 1998? You can count on one hand (give or take a couple fingers) the number of marquee free agents that Angelos has signed since 1994. Robby Alomar, Raffy Palmeiro (1st tour), Belle, Tejada....

ETA

You'd be surprised, as I was crunching the numbers, that a balanced schedule adds, on average, two wins, tops, to our total. See my thread for the data.

I was thinking Palmeiro the 1st time...But you're right ... Now I know we signed Tejada the 1st time ...But wasn't that the year there wasn't much competition for his services? So Belle was the last time the Orioles actually had to be a real bidder.

[TonySoprano]

No, not really. The O's have been pathetic for over a decade. We all get that. As of today though, 3 of the 5 best teams in Baseball are in this division and the O's face them 54 times a year. 4 of the 10 best teams in baseball are in this division, and we face them 72 times a year. I will disagree with anyone that says that does not have a cumulative effect.

Toronto is one of the 10 best teams in baseball? Tampa Bay has been a "psychological" factor since 2008, and before then, they are one of the few teams we owned for several years.

[MikeAD]

Fair enough point about the Rays... but I just have a lot of respect for their starters, and how they play the game.

Also a valid point that the division can not be used as a crutch. Until any rules are changed, these are the cards that have been dealt. Tampa has shown an ability to compete these past 4 years with less resources than the O's. When the O's correct everything within their own house, it will be easiser to criticize the inequities that exist within the game.

That said, I just really disagree with the premise that you can extrapolate the winning percentage of the Central and Western Division teams against the East over limited games, and think they would maintain that same percentage over the course of 72 games.

Yeah no doubt I think the Rays are great.

I think we agree more than we disagree, I've just been arguing on here all day. I think I've got a similar argument in about 10 different threads. Thank God its Friday . Stressful life being on the Hangout and all.

[eddie83]

Toronto is one of the 10 best teams in baseball? Tampa Bay has been a "psychological" factor since 2008, and before then, they are one of the few teams we owned for several years.

In 2008 the Jays won 86 games playing in the AL East and finished in 4th place. The Dodgers win the NL West with 84 wins vs much weaker competition and and are praised nobody brings up these kind of points.

Last year they won 85 games and won the 13th most games in the sport, now think about how much weaker the other divisions are and the impact of the unbalanced schedule.

[Sports Guy]

Not intimidating? The Rays are again one of the 5 best teams in baseball. The Rangers and Oakland and everyone else beat the O's brains in the past 13 years because the O's sucked, and some of those opponents had quality teams of their own. If you put this 2011 O's team in 4 of baseballs 6 divisions (excluding both East's), I think they would be competitive.

But the point is, TB has been able to be one of those top teams in this division, fighting the big and bad Yankees and Red Sox...and they have done it with less revenue.

I think people are ignoring a lot of things if they think this team, as currently constructed, is a contender in other divisions.

The division stuff is nothing but a cop out...The bottom line is the Orioles have very little talent, no depth, poor scouting, invest money poorly and have a terrible owner/GM combo...That isn't a winning formula in any division.