What do expect from Chris Davis?

[Tony-OH]

One thing that worries me is that his best numbers came in his first action, then he regressed. Combined with all the K's, this might be a case of major league pitchers figuring him out.

Yes, that's a bit of a concern as well, and one of the reasons he was available for a setup guy. The hope is that he's learned a thing or two in AAA and he'll be able to use that at the major league level. The downside of course is what several people have alluded to, that he might end up a AAAA guy. I'll need to see him a little bit before I decide but I think there is some promise with the numbers of late in AAA.

[Stotle]

I see. Can you give me some examples of guys, at his age or higher, with his amount of experience in the majors (or more) that have shortened their swing, cut down their K rate, and kept their power the same?

Not exactly a database for these sorts of things. Would be a short list regardless of age, as few people have Davis's raw power. Brandon Belt jumps out as someone who took the length and loop out of their swing and saw his production improve, including power.

Jose Bautista made a number of adjustments, including taking some bat wrap out (wrap causes extra length) and moving closer to the plate for better coverage.

[Phantom]

Not exactly a database for these sorts of things.

I know it's a tough question, you just seemed knowledgeable about the topic. I am just frankly skeptical of this working with any regularity, outside of extremely young or green players.

Would be a short list regardless of age, as few people have Davis's raw power.

Noted. I will not claim you are wrong if you can't come up with examples to meet my demands. I am just honestly curious.

Brandon Belt jumps out as someone who took the length and loop out of their swing and saw his production improve, including power.

As far as I can tell, his K%, BB% and SLG has stayed about the same through the minors.

Jose Bautista made a number of adjustments, including taking some bat wrap out (wrap causes extra length) and moving closer to the plate for better coverage.

Bautista (and Granderson) are certainly two great swing changing success stories. In both those cases, mostly what has been added is power. I'm really looking for cases where the change added BB%, without destroying power.

[Stotle]

I know it's a tough question, you just seemed knowledgeable about the topic. I am just frankly skeptical of this working with any regularity, outside of extremely young or green players.

Noted. I will not claim you are wrong if you can't come up with examples to meet my demands. I am just honestly curious.

As far as I can tell, his K%, BB% and SLG has stayed about the same through the minors.

Bautista (and Granderson) are certainly two great swing changing success stories. In both those cases, mostly what has been added is power. I'm really looking for cases where the change added BB%, without destroying power.

Well, we don't care about adding walks (though that would be nice). What we are looking for is improved instances of contact since contact for Davis is more likely to result in extra bases than a typical hitter. Essentially, just a reduction in SO is the target.

Re: Belt, the adjustment was made at the start of his career. He was a 5th Rdr out of Texas primarily because he hit for no power as a 1B through college. The Giants drafted him late, helped him make some adjustments, and he took off essentially overnight.

[Enjoy Terror]

Why is Chris Davis better suited to play 1B than Jake Fox is?

[Fan4Life]

Why is Chris Davis better suited to play 1B than Jake Fox is?

There's hope he might turn into an every day player. Amazing how many players we have that have this thinking attached.

[NewMarketSean]

It's insane that the guy has had an OPS over .900 throughout his MiL career. I know a lot of that comes from the divisions he played in, but still...that is impressive.

That said, I expect him to be around .700 OPS. Anything above that is icing on the cake.

[crowmst3k!]

I think that Chris Davis will eventually become this guy:

<img src = "http://www.bronxbaseballdaily.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/ty-wigginton-540x380.jpg">

[El Gordo]

I see. Can you give me some examples of guys, at his age or higher, with his amount of experience in the majors (or more) that have shortened their swing, cut down their K rate, and kept their power the same?

Mark Reynolds. Projected for 35 HR with 181 K's as opposed to '10, 32 HR, 211 K's.

[El Gordo]

Davis = Reynolds with a better glove and fewer BB's.

[Babypowder]

Davis = Reynolds with a better glove and fewer BB's.

Reynolds without the walks becomes a pretty bad offensive player quickly.

[JTrea81]

I'm thinking something like this guy:

Richard was 1 year older, but I think the analogy applies...

[SrMeowMeow]

I expect .320/.350/.650. Mike Jacobs, premium edition.

[RVAbird]

Davis = Reynolds with a better glove and fewer BB's.

Weird way of putting it. Davis is a better first baseman than Reynolds is a third baseman. But third baseman carry about 15 runs (1.5 wins) of positional value over first baseman.

"Fewer BBs" is also probably selling short the OBP differential.

[Phantom]

Mark Reynolds. Projected for 35 HR with 181 K's as opposed to '10, 32 HR, 211 K's.

Well, considering his BB% has gone down while his ISO has gone up from last year, I doubt this is in response to a swing shortening change. Seems to me like he is just striking out less, not a sea change in his approach (which is what Davis would need).