If the Orioles pursue CJ Wilson....

[Lucky Jim]

In all honesty, my last post was made just to rile you up.

Thank God it didn't work.

[Stotle]

Thank God it didn't work.

These matches say you're lying...

[CA-ORIOLE]

These matches say you're lying...

Lawyer Wars. I like it.

[OrioleMagic]

Thank you to both Stotle and Lucky Jim for a great debate! Better than some of the **** on TV! I'm on the high risk/high reward Darvish or bust side, but who cares. Great discussion!

[crawjo]

Honestly? I would not give him more than 3/50, or something in that range. I know that won't be anywhere near enough to get him, which is why I don't think the Orioles should go after him at all. I think they should go hard after Edwin Jackson instead.

[Bradysburns]

....how much should they offer him and for how many years?

As many know, Wilson is a converted starter.

The last 2 years have seen him throw well over 200 IP each year, including the postseason.

He throws GBs...He only gave up 16 homers this year and that is with playing a lot of games in Texas, where the ball flies.

Last year, his walk rate was 4, this year it is 3.

His K rate went up this year almost one full K per 9IP.

His FIP numbers suggest a pitcher that is a sub 3.50 ERA guy. His xFIP numbers suggest 3.75ish ERA guy.

As a starter the last 2 years, he has been worth 22.5M on average.

The biggest issues, as I see if, with Wilson are these:

1) He turns 31 next month and will be seeking a deal for at least 5 years..that's very dangerous.

2) While he has shown the ability to throw a lot of innings, does that catch up with him quicker because he was a reliever before OR does he have a lot left in his arm because he threw less pitches before?

You have to figure that Wilson best 2 years as an Oriole would be 2012 and 2013. After that, I think it becomes somewhat of a crap shoot...The Orioles aren't likely to contend in 2012 and 2013 seems like a long shot right now as well.

So, you would be signing him knowing that you will pay him a lot of money for 2 years where contention won't happen and you will be paying him a lot for what will likely be his declining years.

But still, he could be a guy that gives you a 4ish ERA and 200 IP a year for the next 5 years as well and, let's face it, right now we don't have that guy.

Plus, much like Britton, he will get a lot of ground balls and while a flyball pitcher can succeed at OPACY, you will always prefer the GB pitcher.

To me, he is worth the risk at 4 years for 18ishM a year.(say 4/75 being the highest I would go).

But you have to think he will easily get an offer similar to what Burnett and Lackey got from a contender.

So, that means the Orioles will have to go 5 or maybe 6 years and somewhere in the area of 18-20M a year to get it done.

Are you comfortable with that? Do you sign him to that contract and just hope that he can at least be Derek Lowe....a durable guy well into his 30s who can keep you in most games and throw a bunch of innings?

I think it will: A) be an admission that "grow the arms" has pretty much failed to this point... B) be a waste of time, because he ain't coming to this kind of totally dysfunctional organization... WAIT! Unless Thad Levine goes to lunch with him on a regular basis and lures him over as our new GM.

[Frobby]

I think it will: A) be an admission that "grow the arms" has pretty much failed to this point...

Yes and no. Sometimes, a young staff needs a leader to galvanize them and take the pressure off a little bit. Look at what Kenny Rogers meant to the Tigers back in 2006. They had a talented young staff but things hadn't quite gelled. Rogers comes in and all of a sudden their whole staff is great. (Of course, adding Verlander didn't hurt!)

Even the year we had Millwood, who wasn't great, it took a lot of heat off Guthrie, Matusz and the others.

[OsnRavensallday]

If the O's pursue Wilson I will cry, he is not a clutch pitcher when it counts in the play-offs like last nite. He looked horrible and he was only into the 5th or 6th inning, I'd rather put all our money on Prince.

[Lucky Jim]

If the O's pursue Wilson I will cry, he is not a clutch pitcher when it counts in the play-offs like last nite. He looked horrible and he was only into the 5th or 6th inning, I'd rather put all our money on Prince.

This is vital. I can't even count how many times Orioles pitchers have faltered in the 5th or 6th inning of a playoff game in the last 14 years, ruining the season.

[CSB Jack]

You have to figure that Wilson best 2 years as an Oriole would be 2012 and 2013. After that, I think it becomes somewhat of a crap shoot...The Orioles aren't likely to contend in 2012 and 2013 seems like a long shot right now as well.

I should read the whole thread to see if this has been addressed (but I won't before making this response), but if you really believe this, why would you even bother making an offer? It's not like there won't be other pitchers available after every other year that can be difference makers when such a difference maker would actually be needed. 2012 would have to have a perfect alignment of the stars, planets, moon, and a few other things for the Orioles to compete for a playoff spot, but if you are already writing off 2013 then what is the point of bringing in relatively high priced pitching for next year? There would be less expensive ways of getting innings next year that could be around when the Orioles are ready to compete in 2014 (if that is the premise).

If, on the other hand, you actually believe you can fill in enough of the gaps aside from what Wilson provides that you only need to have a modest celestial alignment to have a decent season next year and then be ready to go full bore pedal to the metal to finish off the process in 2013, then of course the team should make an effort to get Wilson. Personally, I would not go more than four guaranteed years, though I'd be willing to put in some reasonable performance option clauses for years five and even six if necessary.

[quidam]

I wonder what an offseason with CJ Wilson could do for Brian Matusz.

Wilson's work ethic and dedication are second to none.

[SrMeowMeow]

I should read the whole thread to see if this has been addressed (but I won't before making this response), but if you really believe this, why would you even bother making an offer? It's not like there won't be other pitchers available after every other year that can be difference makers when such a difference maker would actually be needed. 2012 would have to have a perfect alignment of the stars, planets, moon, and a few other things for the Orioles to compete for a playoff spot, but if you are already writing off 2013 then what is the point of bringing in relatively high priced pitching for next year? There would be less expensive ways of getting innings next year that could be around when the Orioles are ready to compete in 2014 (if that is the premise).

If, on the other hand, you actually believe you can fill in enough of the gaps aside from what Wilson provides that you only need to have a modest celestial alignment to have a decent season next year and then be ready to go full bore pedal to the metal to finish off the process in 2013, then of course the team should make an effort to get Wilson. Personally, I would not go more than four guaranteed years, though I'd be willing to put in some reasonable performance option clauses for years five and even six if necessary.

I don't think you can offer performance-based incentives and vesting options, only durability (i.e. IP) or awards (e.g. top 5 Cy Young finish, etc.).

[El Gordo]

Honestly? I would not give him more than 3/50, or something in that range. I know that won't be anywhere near enough to get him, which is why I don't think the Orioles should go after him at all. I think they should go hard after Edwin Jackson instead.

4/65 for Jackson?

[crawjo]

4/65 for Jackson?

I'd be more comfortable with that than the offers being floated for Wilson. Jackson is younger and is entering his prime. He's more likely to be able to remain effective throughout the duration of a multiyear deal than Wilson is.

[CSB Jack]

In the interview CJ was asked about FA and he said he had plenty of money cars etc. He said he wanted the security of knowing he was going to be a SP for a few years down the raod in one place. He said he wanted to buy a house and maybe get a dog. He's a West Coast guy, a Taoist, a free spirit, and a sports car racer and collector. Doesn't sound too much like a guy who would go to NYC for a few dollars more.

Well now, that's a different approach to deciding where to sign up to work. Dude made 7 million last year (before taxes and agent fees, etc.). That should allow him to be able to put a roof over his head and find a canine companion if he wants.

Actually, it's refreshing to have a player just say it's not always about getting that last dollar. Seriously, after the first 100 million bucks, aren't there other considerations besides just how many incremental dollars are in your paycheck? How many things are there that you can do when you get paid $100MM over five years that you can't do when you get paid $90MM over the same time frame?