If the Orioles pursue CJ Wilson....

[Sports Guy]

....how much should they offer him and for how many years?

As many know, Wilson is a converted starter.

The last 2 years have seen him throw well over 200 IP each year, including the postseason.

He throws GBs...He only gave up 16 homers this year and that is with playing a lot of games in Texas, where the ball flies.

Last year, his walk rate was 4, this year it is 3.

His K rate went up this year almost one full K per 9IP.

His FIP numbers suggest a pitcher that is a sub 3.50 ERA guy. His xFIP numbers suggest 3.75ish ERA guy.

As a starter the last 2 years, he has been worth 22.5M on average.

The biggest issues, as I see if, with Wilson are these:

1) He turns 31 next month and will be seeking a deal for at least 5 years..that's very dangerous.

2) While he has shown the ability to throw a lot of innings, does that catch up with him quicker because he was a reliever before OR does he have a lot left in his arm because he threw less pitches before?

You have to figure that Wilson best 2 years as an Oriole would be 2012 and 2013. After that, I think it becomes somewhat of a crap shoot...The Orioles aren't likely to contend in 2012 and 2013 seems like a long shot right now as well.

So, you would be signing him knowing that you will pay him a lot of money for 2 years where contention won't happen and you will be paying him a lot for what will likely be his declining years.

But still, he could be a guy that gives you a 4ish ERA and 200 IP a year for the next 5 years as well and, let's face it, right now we don't have that guy.

Plus, much like Britton, he will get a lot of ground balls and while a flyball pitcher can succeed at OPACY, you will always prefer the GB pitcher.

To me, he is worth the risk at 4 years for 18ishM a year.(say 4/75 being the highest I would go).

But you have to think he will easily get an offer similar to what Burnett and Lackey got from a contender.

So, that means the Orioles will have to go 5 or maybe 6 years and somewhere in the area of 18-20M a year to get it done.

Are you comfortable with that? Do you sign him to that contract and just hope that he can at least be Derek Lowe....a durable guy well into his 30s who can keep you in most games and throw a bunch of innings?

[jamalshw]

I would give him 5 years, but would have a hard time giving him more than 15-16 per year in that case, so 5/80 would be my top.

[clapdiddy]

I like Wilson, but I just don't see a reason for us to break the bank for him. We would have to pay the "Oriole Premium" to get him, and I just think we are too far away to throw the kind of money it will take to bring him here.

[NewMarketSean]

Make it a front-loaded deal, so you're paying him for what are more likely to be his best years. I think 5/80 is fair. By the time his contract is winding down you can maybe move him back into the BP and you're not paying him $18 million to do that.

[Nigel Tufnel]

Buster Olney tweeted this yesterday:

Buster_ESPN Buster Olney

Just talked to agent (not Boras)about Wilson FA. Says with a really bad October could get 5/60-65m. With a good Oct., 5-6/$85-100m.

Seems ridiculous that a bad October could potentially cost a guy $40 million. Maybe that's the new Moneyball - good players who had crappy postseasons.

[JTrea81]

5/95 if they actually want to compete with the "big boys" for him. Anything less and you won't get consideration.

And I'd make that offer on day 1.

[clapdiddy]

Make it a front-loaded deal, so you're paying him for what are more likely to be his best years. I think 5/80 is fair. By the time his contract is winding down you can maybe move him back into the BP and you're not paying him $18 million to do that.

If we could get him for 5/80, I'd consider it. I just don't see him signing here for that kind of money.

[MikeAD]

Yes I am comfortable with that. Just do it.

One thing I don't get is that ESPN is reporting that the Rangers will bid high on Sabathia because they are likely to lose Wilson in free agency. Why do this? Sabathia is already making $23 million a year, Wilson is going to be cheaper why not just go all in and keep Wilson? They are both 31.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7098230/texas-rangers-pursue-cc-sabathia-opts-source-says

[Sports Guy]

Yes I am comfortable with that. Just do it.

One thing I don't get is that ESPN is reporting that the Rangers will bid high on Sabathia because they are likely to lose Wilson in free agency. Why do this? Sabathia is already making $23 million a year, Wilson is going to be cheaper why not just go all in and keep Wilson? They are both 31.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7098230/texas-rangers-pursue-cc-sabathia-opts-source-says

It does worry me a little bit unless CJ Wilson doesn't want to stay in Texas.

What does Texas(and Nolan Ryan) know that the rest don't know about Wilson if they would rather sign CC for 1.5 times more than Wilson will get?

[Frobby]

Isn't Wilson essentially the 2011 equivalent of 2004 Derek Lowe, but a bit better? Lowe was 31 years old and had 3 years under his belt as a starter when he was a free agent. He was worth about $15-16 mm/yr the next 4 years, then $11 mm/yr the last 3.

I think the Burnett/Lackey deals (5/$82.5) probably set the floor for Wilson. For us, we'd probably need to go 5/$95 mm or 6/$110 mm to be in the ballpark. Not a lot of mileage on the arm, so yeah, I'd probably do it.

[DuffMan]

Yes I am comfortable with that. Just do it.

One thing I don't get is that ESPN is reporting that the Rangers will bid high on Sabathia because they are likely to lose Wilson in free agency. Why do this? Sabathia is already making $23 million a year, Wilson is going to be cheaper why not just go all in and keep Wilson? They are both 31.

http://espn.go.com/new-york/mlb/story/_/id/7098230/texas-rangers-pursue-cc-sabathia-opts-source-says

I was thinking the same thing when I saw that.

As far as Wilson goes I would offer up to 5 yrs 90 million. Wouldn't want to see us give him a 6 year deal.

[JTrea81]

It does worry me a little bit unless CJ Wilson doesn't want to stay in Texas.

What does Texas(and Nolan Ryan) know that the rest don't know about Wilson if they would rather sign CC for 1.5 times more than Wilson will get?

Playoff performance?

[Floater]

Anyone know if the Dodgers are shopping Kershaw since it is going to take forever to rebuild that team or are they building around him? (Which is the best option for them, imo.) He'd probably cost too much, probably Bundy/Machado plus a couple of other decent minor leaguers. Is it worth it to give up one of those guys plus some other pretty decent prospects for Kershaw, a dominant number 1 we haven't had in years. He's 23 also. I'd consider it but I'd draw the line if they asked for Bundy and Machado.

[Sports Guy]

Anyone know if the Dodgers are shopping Kershaw since it is going to take forever to rebuild that team or are they building around him? (Which is the best option for them, imo.) He'd probably cost too much, probably Bundy/Machado plus a couple of other decent minor leaguers. Is it worth it to give up one of those guys plus some other pretty decent prospects for Kershaw, a dominant number 1 we haven't had in years. He's 23 also. I'd consider it but I'd draw the line if they asked for Bundy and Machado.

No chance they are shopping Kershaw.

The Dodgers will be fine.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I'd be really hesitant to give this guy 5 years. Sure, he's been good recently but he doesn't have THAT great a track record to justify going 5 years and over 100MM.

Let someone else pay that. For us, I say we live and die by the prospects, and I also don't mind FRobby's idea about taking a flier on Carlos Zambrano.