PER AMBER: Orioles SHOULD go for major FA talent...

[BilboBaggins]

Amber makes some good points here:

http://www.masnsports.com/amber_theoharis/2011/11/orioles-need-to-be-big-player-in-free-agency.html

We do know it's unlikely Duquette will make a big splash and go after the biggest names on the market.

I'm asking, why not?

With a solid core of talented young position players in place, the impact of adding one top-of-the-rotation starter could be huge. I don't believe the O's are as far away from competing as Duquette implied in his initial press conference two weeks ago.

I understand C.J. Wilson is most likely out of reach. The O's have to be realistic about their chances of luring a big name to a losing team. It's safe to say chasing after Wilson would be a waste of time.

Mark Buehrle, on the other hand, might be worth throwing a shot at. He's extremely coveted as well, but at 32, he knows this is his last big payday. He might be willing to go to any team if he's overpaid.

I like Wilson, but they should TRY for Buehrle.

If the Birds' 2012 rotation consisted of Buehrle followed by Jeremy Guthrie, I think they're off to a decent start. Then you hope Tommy Hunter pitches like the man who won 13 games for the Texas Rangers in 2010. If not, I like Jake Arrieta as your third or fourth starter. The bottom of the rotation could be strong if Brian Matusz or Zach Britton bounce back and live up to the potential so many scouts saw in them just one year ago. If not, perhaps Jim Johnson makes a successful transition from setup man to starter. If I were him, I do some serious research on how Wilson made the move from closer to a potential $100 million starter in two years.

There's no need for any type of rebuilding effort in Baltimore right now. The O's should follow the Nationals' lead and not be afraid to throw some money out there. The organization needs to warm up to the idea of adding major pieces from the outside.

I ask this: why can't we rebuild and go after top FAs?

Is there any reason why we can't?

[Can_of_corn]

Amber makes some good points here:

http://www.masnsports.com/amber_theoharis/2011/11/orioles-need-to-be-big-player-in-free-agency.html

I like Wilson, but they should TRY for Buehrle.

I ask this: why can't we rebuild and go after top FAs?

Is there any reason why we can't?

Because PA has limited the FO to the draft for young talent and signing top FA's takes away the draft picks.

[WiredinBmore]

Didn't Amber write this same blog last off-season?

[Lucky Jim]

Amber makes some good points here:

http://www.masnsports.com/amber_theoharis/2011/11/orioles-need-to-be-big-player-in-free-agency.html

I like Wilson, but they should TRY for Buehrle.

I ask this: why can't we rebuild and go after top FAs?

Is there any reason why we can't?

This has been debated in numerous threads. Does Amber piping up really warrant going over it all again?

Basic reason: FAs offer diminishing value over the course of their contract, and thus require near-term contention in order to have any efficiency whatsoever. It's not impossible for the O's to contend over the next two years, but no number of FA signings make it probable. Thus, it makes little sense to go after FAs who will burden us with inefficient contracts at the very time we need to augment our roster to bring in talent to put us over the top.*

*This is exacerbated by losing picks. Which become particularly problematic if over-slot spending goes away.

[El Gordo]

I'd be fine with amateur FA's like Soler, Darvish and/or Cespedes.

[BilboBaggins]

This has been debated in numerous threads. Does Amber piping up really warrant going over it all again?

Basic reason: FAs offer diminishing value over the course of their contract, and thus require near-term contention in order to have any efficiency whatsoever. It's not impossible for the O's to contend over the next two years, but no number of FA signings make it probable. Thus, it makes little sense to go after FAs who will burden us with inefficient contracts at the very time we need to augment our roster to bring in talent to put us over the top.*

*This is exacerbated by losing picks. Which become particularly problematic if over-slot spending goes away.

Yes, but hasn't the other way failed as well?

Whose fault was it that we've had lousy picks? For once, I would like to see the team get one MOO bat while he was in his prime.

Just once.

We're never in the hunt for any quality players. Was there a reason why we couldn't get VMart last season? You telling me he wouldn't have made any difference?

We've known for 5 years that we need a quality MOO bat. We haven't gotten one. I don't want to give up high draft picks, I don't want to sacrifice international and minor league scouting/development, I don't want to mortgage our future.

At which point are we going to make a discernible difference with some smart picks and a good FA signings?

[TonySoprano]

Didn't Amber write this same blog last off-season?

It was about six weeks ago

http://www.masnsports.com/amber_theoharis/2011/10/new-gm-needs-ability-to-make-bold-moves.html

What she said then

The only way to get a Prince Fielder or C.J. Wilson this offseason is to grossly overpay. I know - it's not my money, but the Orioles aren't a small market team. They've made offers in the $140 million range before (Mark Teixeira). They can do it again.

It will be up to the new GM to make those bold decisions and then take the heat that comes with them. He or she can't be thin-skinned.

One thing MacPhail did is put the Orioles a piece or two away from being a team that can make some noise in the division. The difficult part of the equation is those two missing pieces are probably both starting pitchers. There isn't a club in the major leagues that couldn't use top-notch starters. Demand way exceeds supply.

I truly believe if the new GM comes in and outbids other clubs in a tunnel-vision quest to get an ace in Baltimore, the rest will fall in place.

[Can_of_corn]

Yes, but hasn't the other way failed as well?

Whose fault was it that we've had lousy picks? For once, I would like to see the team get one MOO bat while he was in his prime.

Just once.

We're never in the hunt for any quality players. Was there a reason why we couldn't get VMart last season? You telling me he wouldn't have made any difference?

We've known for 5 years that we need a quality MOO bat. We haven't gotten one. I don't want to give up high draft picks, I don't want to sacrifice international and minor league scouting/development, I don't want to mortgage our future.

At which point are we going to make a discernible difference with some smart picks and a good FA signings?

They signed Tejada and Bell didn't they?

[BilboBaggins]

They signed Tejada and Bell didn't they?

You consider Miguel Tejada a MOO bat like Puljols, Ryan Howard, Fielder, Beltre, Hamilton, Manny (2002-2007) Ramirez, Thome or ARod?

Bell? Seriously?

Toward the end of Tejada's first run in Baltimore, no one was pitching around him because he constantly hit into double-plays.

[Lucky Jim]

Yes, but hasn't the other way failed as well?

Whose fault was it that we've had lousy picks? For once, I would like to see the team get one MOO bat while he was in his prime.

Just once.

We're never in the hunt for any quality players. Was there a reason why we couldn't get VMart last season? You telling me he wouldn't have made any difference?

We've known for 5 years that we need a quality MOO bat. We haven't gotten one. I don't want to give up high draft picks, I don't want to sacrifice international and minor league scouting/development, I don't want to mortgage our future.

At which point are we going to make a discernible difference with some smart picks and a good FA signings?

Investing in high-profile FAs may not mortgage the future (though it could, if taken to Trea-ian extremes) but it is absolutely done at the cost of draft picks, and it absolutely does confer opportunity costs.

Just because we haven't done it well doesn't mean it's not the right plan. The Bilbo-Trea way is the equivalent of substituting a Scratch-and-Win for an investment plan.

Victor Martinez was worth less than 3 WAR last year, and that was riding a difficult-to-repeat, if not inflated, BABIP. That's in the first year of his contract. Sure, he'd be great to have around, but the difference would have been minimal, and the cost relatively high.

The way to get a middle-of-the-order bat in its prime is to draft and develop it. If you buy it via FA, you're (almost by definition) not getting it in its prime.

[Lucky Jim]

You consider Miguel Tejada a MOO bat like Puljols, Ryan Howard, Fielder, Beltre, Hamilton, Manny (2002-2007) Ramirez, Thome or ARod?

Bell? Seriously?

Toward the end of Tejada's first run in Baltimore, no one was pitching around him because he constantly hit into double-plays.

So what you're saying is we need to invest in FAs who don't decline over the course of their FA contract. Do you not understand how that makes my point for me?

[TonySoprano]

You consider Miguel Tejada a MOO bat like Puljols, Ryan Howard, Fielder, Beltre, Hamilton, Manny (2002-2007) Ramirez, Thome or ARod?

Bell? Seriously?

Toward the end of Tejada's first run in Baltimore, no one was pitching around him because he constantly hit into double-plays.

I guess you don't remember Palmeiro during his first tour here. Yes, Belle counts as well. Now if you want to argue that we haven't signed such a bat in several years, I would agree.

[Lucky Jim]

You consider Miguel Tejada a MOO bat like Puljols, Ryan Howard, Fielder, Beltre, Hamilton, Manny (2002-2007) Ramirez, Thome or ARod?

Bell? Seriously?

Toward the end of Tejada's first run in Baltimore, no one was pitching around him because he constantly hit into double-plays.

One of these is not like the others.

[BilboBaggins]

The way to get a middle-of-the-order bat in its prime is to draft and develop it. If you buy it via FA, you're (almost by definition) not getting it in its prime.

Explain Manny Ramirez and David Ortiz.

In 2003, the Red Sox signed Ortiz as a free agent.

I don't know if I should be added to Jtrea81's view. I'm not advocating a spend-for-all signing season; I'm saying that the play it safe MacPhail style of team building has been a clear failure.

I am a huge proponent of drafting, scouting and player development. But I don't understand why we can't add solid pieces that we need in the meantime without bankrupting our future?

Standing pat and picking through leftovers has led us to last place again. And again. And again.

[BilboBaggins]

So what you're saying is we need to invest in FAs who don't decline over the course of their FA contract. Do you not understand how that makes my point for me?

I'm not disagreeing with anything you've said here. Not one bit.

I believe that we continue to follow a method that has not worked for our team. The avoidance of signing a major talent in the last few years has not made our farm team any better, nor have we developed incredible talent because we didn't get VMart or Tex. And I don't see how it will help our team to completely ignore Puljols and Fielder.