Smells to me like Connolly thinks Reynolds goes...

[Fan4Life]

Reynolds posted a wRC+ of 116, 16 percentage points above the mean.

Here he is on the second page of the AL list, just above the middle of the pack:

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=al&qual=y&type=8&season=2011&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=&players=

He's grouped with players like Asdrubal Cabrera, Jeff Francoeur, Nelson Cruz, Edwin Encarnacion, BJ Upton, and JJ Hardy, all of whom posted strong SLG% but mediocre OBP%.

Hmm.. not sure I can buy into his formula if that's the case. Is there anyone on this board that understands it well and takes issues with his formula?

[RVAbird]

Based on that Reynolds was 16% above league average for runs created. Smoak was league average in 32 less games. I see it is supposed to adjust for leagues, how about divisions? Shouldn't the fact that Reynolds plays in a pitching rich division help his numbers?

wRC+ is a rate metric, not a counting metric, and does not accumulate with more playing time. Think of it like OPS+, but probably with more appropriate weight given to OBP and some other things. It is park and league adjusted, so it does a good bit to try to neutralize for context, but it is of course not perfect.

[weams]

My feeling too. He is mentioned twice in the article.

Dan told me he has been mentioned by other teams, has some value. But that there is nothing that he knows of on the horizon.

[RVAbird]

Hmm.. not sure I can buy into his formula if that's the case. Is there anyone on this board that understands it well and takes issues with his formula?

Can I ask what it is that is keeping you from "buying in?" Genuinely curious. What about Reynold's production makes you think he was more valuable offensively (per game, or per 150, or per 162) than say Nelson Cruz, Jeff Francoeur or JJ Hardy, all of whom posted OPSes between .801 and .821, heavy on the slugging? I don't think wRC+ is perfect and it's not close to my go-to offensive metric, but it correlates well with the things I typically rely on and my subjective view of things.

[clapdiddy]

Dan told me he has been mentioned by other teams, has some value. But that there is nothing that he knows of on the horizon.

Connoly....or....Duquette? :scratchchinhmm:

[Sports Guy]

My feeling too. He is mentioned twice in the article.

Well, after speaking to some of these writers at times, my post was more than a feeling. Its just how things work.

Of course, that doesn't mean Reynolds is being dealt but what I think it means is that the Orioles are open to dealing him and Connolly knows that based on conversations he has had.

[weams]

Connoly....or....Duquette? :scratchchinhmm:

Connolly. I don't know Duquette.

[weams]

Well, after speaking to some of these writers at times, my post was more than a feeling. Its just how things work.

Of course, that doesn't mean Reynolds is being dealt but what I think it means is that the Orioles are open to dealing him and Connolly knows that based on conversations he has had.

I would agree with that.

[Hooded Viper]

Well, after speaking to some of these writers at times, my post was more than a feeling. Its just how things work.

Of course, that doesn't mean Reynolds is being dealt but what I think it means is that the Orioles are open to dealing him and Connolly knows that based on conversations he has had.

I know things are quiet but Britt seems to be overly quiet. She is usually good for a speculative tweet or two by now. Probably just the holidays.

[Fan4Life]

Can I ask what it is that is keeping you from "buying in?" Genuinely curious. What about Reynold's production makes you think he was more valuable offensively (per game, or per 150, or per 162) than say Nelson Cruz, Jeff Francoeur or JJ Hardy, all of whom posted OPSes between .801 and .821, heavy on the slugging? I don't think wRC+ is perfect and it's not close to my go-to offensive metric, but it correlates well with the things I typically rely on and my subjective view of things.

I suspect that his HR ability is under valued. When I look at Francoeur and AsDrab, they both produced similar runs scored and Runs batted in as Reynolds in considerably more PA's and considerably less HR's.

A HR is a run producing /creating event. If these players have similar OPS and/or SLG%, Reynolds HR power has to make him more valuable. Isn't there a way to account for that?

EDIT... A HR is a run creating event without regard for any other players on your team. Obviously other players have acquired similar stats as Reynolds with less HR's... but that is directly tied to the rate players around them get on base etc.

[Roll Tide]

I would agree with that.

I only understand trading Reynolds if they plan on bringing in a suitable replacement. They'd be better off putting him at DH and taking his 40 homers that provide some protection for Jones. Seriously what would they be getting that would make enough sense to weaken the lineup.

[SrMeowMeow]

I suspect that his HR ability is under valued. When I look at Francoeur and AsDrab, they both produced similar runs scored and Runs batted in as Reynolds in considerably more PA's and considerably less HR's.

A HR is a run producing /creating event. If these players have similar OPS and/or SLG%, Reynolds HR power has to make him more valuable. Isn't there a way to account for that?

EDIT... A HR is a run creating event without regard for any other players on your team. Obviously other players have acquired similar stats as Reynolds with less HR's... but that is directly tied to the rate players around them get on base etc.

SLG does account for that. Anyway, I think wRC+ uses linear weights, which explicitly accounts for that.

[Frobby]

If any of these local writers throw out names in this context, I think there is something behind the speculation.

I don't. I'm not too impressed with the antennae of the local media.

[Fan4Life]

SLG does account for that. Anyway, I think wRC+ uses linear weights, which explicitly accounts for that.

SLG% accounts for it, but it is hidden along with all the other mesh. A HR creates a run without regard for any other players ability to get on base. In that light, if Reynolds has a similar SLG% as other players with much fewer HR's, then Reynolds numbers are devalued in my view. AsDrab had double the amount of singles as Reynolds, about the same doubles, and a third less HR's in 70 more PA's. You can't tell me they are equal.

[SrMeowMeow]

SLG% accounts for it, but it is hidden along with all the other mesh. A HR creates a run without regard for any other players ability to get on base. In that light, if Reynolds has a similar SLG% as other players with much fewer HR's, then Reynolds numbers are devalued in my view. AsDrab had double the amount of singles as Reynolds, about the same doubles, and a third less HR's in 70+ more PA's. You can't tell me they are equal.

They don't have equal power. SLG is not what you want to look at to measure a player's raw power. You want to use ISO. But I wouldn't use OPS, SLG, or ISO to measure a player's total offensive contribution. They are quick-and-dirty stats. Use wOBA or wRC+.