Smells to me like Connolly thinks Reynolds goes...

[RVAbird]

SLG does account for that. Anyway, I think wRC+ uses linear weights, which explicitly accounts for that.

SLG% accounts for it, but it is hidden along with all the other mesh. A HR creates a run without regard for any other players ability to get on base. In that light, if Reynolds has a similar SLG% as other players with much fewer HR's, then Reynolds numbers are devalued in my view. AsDrab had double the amount of singles as Reynolds, about the same doubles, and a third less HR's in 70 more PA's. You can't tell me they are equal.

Yes, wRC+ uses a linear weighting system, which weighs each outcome based on the average amount of runs it creates. The concerns you have are valid, but accounted for (in theory) in a weighted runs created system.

[Frobby]

SLG% accounts for it, but it is hidden along with all the other mesh. A HR creates a run without regard for any other players ability to get on base. In that light, if Reynolds has a similar SLG% as other players with much fewer HR's, then Reynolds numbers are devalued in my view. AsDrab had double the amount of singles as Reynolds, about the same doubles, and a third less HR's in 70 more PA's. You can't tell me they are equal.

This stuff has been studied to death. There are stats out there that weight singles, doubles, triples and homers (and other events) in terms of their likeliness of producing runs, rather than a simple 1, 2 3 or 4. I have a lot of confidence in the offensive stats that are available being pretty accurate if you know how to interpret them.

[Fan4Life]

They don't have equal power. SLG is not what you want to look at to measure a player's raw power. You want to use ISO. But I wouldn't use OPS, SLG, or ISO to measure a player's total offensive contribution. They are quick-and-dirty stats. Use wOBA or wRC+.

I'm not picking any particular stat to establish Reynolds value. Maybe you should be telling yourself this... I was responding to your comment

If Reynolds is going to hit, like, .240/.320/.460 at 1B, I would give him away rather than pay his 2012 salary.

when I said Reynolds has more value than his stats (the ones you used) represent.

[rubberarm21]

I only understand trading Reynolds if they plan on bringing in a suitable replacement. They'd be better off putting him at DH and taking his 40 homers that provide some protection for Jones. Seriously what would they be getting that would make enough sense to weaken the lineup.

I'll take Smoak for Reynolds straight up in a heart beat!... Seattle would never do that though.. why give up someone that is cheaper with much more upside and a better glove for a DH with only only two tools (OBP & HR). We need to stop worrying about the lost production from 2012.. this is going to be a lost year anyways! We don't have any of the excitement we had going into 2011 and look how awful we turned out then.

[luismatos4prez]

. Use wOBA or wRC+.

Fwiw, Reynolds led the Orioles in both categories.

[Fan4Life]

Yes, wRC+ uses a linear weighting system, which weighs each outcome based on the average amount of runs it creates. The concerns you have are valid, but accounted for (in theory) in a weighted runs created system.

Well I'd have to know how the weighted system works to buy into it. After looking at a Francoeur and AsDab stats that look similar to Reynolds with regard to SLG% / RBI/ RS in a lot more PA's, what it tells me is that if Reynolds had played for say Cleveland and put up the same numbers, he'd have considerably more RBI and RS.

So I'm not sure his HR's are being given due credit at least with regard to SLG% and any stat that uses SLG%.

[SrMeowMeow]

I'm not picking any particular stat to establish Reynolds value. Maybe you should be telling yourself this... I was responding to your comment when I said Reynolds has more value than his stats (the ones you used) represent.

I was just trying to answer your question. To be more specific, I think that if Reynolds hits .240/.320/.460 like I suggested, his 780 OPS will actually overrate what he actually brings to the offense. It would be average at best for first base. I'm not interested in paying 7M or so for that production.

[Fan4Life]

I was just trying to answer your question. To be more specific, I think that if Reynolds hits .240/.320/.460 like I suggested, his 780 OPS will actually overrate what he actually brings to the offense. It would be average at best for first base. I'm not interested in paying 7M or so for that production.

If those are his numbers and he hits 28 HR's, I agree. If he hits 42, I disagree.

[RVAbird]

Well I'd have to know how the weighted system works to buy into it. After looking at a Francoeur and AsDab stats that look similar to Reynolds with regard to SLG% / RBI/ RS in a lot more PA's, what it tells me is that if Reynolds had played for say Cleveland and put up the same numbers, he'd have considerably more RBI and RS.

So I'm not sure his HR's are being given due credit at least with regard to SLG% and any stat that uses SLG%.

wRC+ doesn't "use" SLG%. It uses a system of linear weights. I get that you're skeptical of that system. It's good to be skeptical. I suggest reading up on the process more and, if you find something particularly disagreeable, starting a thread. I would love to read it.

[SrMeowMeow]

If those are his numbers and he hits 28 HR's, I agree. If he hits 42, I disagree.

But if he hits 28 homers, he won't slug .460, unless he also hits like 50 doubles.

So you're just saying that a .460 SLG is more valuable if it's mostly homers? I don't really disagree with that, although it doesn't make a big difference.

[allstar1579]

Reynolds real value lies in how many guys are on base when he hits those 40 HR he's going to put up. He might get 40 RBI from them, or he might get 100 RBI from them. Where the risk comes in is do you want to risk leaving guys on base with someone that only hits .240 compared to someone that might hit .300.

[Fan4Life]

But if he hits 28 homers, he won't slug .460, unless he also hits like 50 doubles.

So you're just saying that a .460 SLG is more valuable if it's mostly homers? I don't really disagree with that, although it doesn't make a big difference.

It can make a big difference if the players around Reynolds are able to up their OBP as a team so that those HR's can be leveraged into a higher run creation level. AsDrab had about the same RBI and RS as Reynolds in 70 more PA's mostly from singles. Their seasonal stats look similar, but they aren't similar.

[Fan4Life]

Reynolds real value lies in how many guys are on base when he hits those 40 HR he's going to put up. He might get 40 RBI from them, or he might get 100 RBI from them. Where the risk comes in is do you want to risk leaving guys on base with someone that only hits .240 compared to someone that might hit .300.

Depends on how much power you lose from the .300 hitter. Otherwise you are spot on.

[SrMeowMeow]

It can make a big difference if the players around Reynolds are able to up their OBP as a team so that those HR's can be leveraged into a higher run creation level. AsDrab had about the same RBI and RS as Reynolds in 70 more PA's mostly from singles. Their seasonal stats look similar, but they aren't similar.

This is the argument for why RBI and RS are irrelevant when you're analyzing individual players, not the other way around.

[Fan4Life]

This is the argument for why RBI and RS are irrelevant when you're analyzing individual players, not the other way around.

True. A question:

Would any of the stats we have looked at in this debate be different had Reynolds played for Cleveland with the same stats he had with us but ended up with 110 RBI and 90 RS? Would his wRC be any different other than the park factors?