Intentional Talk (Kevin Millar) discusses Jones for Jurrjens and Prado...

[Swampdonks]

Why do you think Atlanta is struggling to trade those 2?

Whether you want to believe it or not, the Braves haven't called every team begging them to take Jurrjens and Prado off their hands. They are just the two players they feel comfortable giving up if they find the bat that they want.

[Birdfan21]

And if you think the Orioles will get a top prospect in addition to Jurrjens and Prado, you are going to be the one upset. 0% of that happening. I honestly don't think a trade will be happening since neither side seems likely to budge at this point.

I never said I thought they'd get a top prospect in return. Just that the Orioles are only trading Adam Jones if they get an offer they can't turn down.

[Birdfan21]

Whether you want to believe it or not, the Braves haven't called every team begging them to take Jurrjens and Prado off their hands. They are just the two players they feel comfortable giving up if they find the bat that they want.

Oh you work in the Braves front office. My apologies.

[Swampdonks]

I don't disagree with that.

If I'm the Orioles, I'm looking for guys that would be under team control for longer than 2 years, anyways. I was more or less addressing the guy who wanted to add Beachy into the deal which is preposterous.

[allstar1579]

Of course I am. As I said, all fans will overvalue their own players.

But anyone with a brain knows that Jurrjens/Prado/Beachy >>>>>> Jones

I could even make an argument that Jurrjens for Jones is too much. Jurrjens last year in only 150 innings had a 3.8 WAR. Jones last year when he had his biggest power numbers had a 1.7 WAR.

You could make that argument, but you'd be wrong. If you think ANY GM even MENTIONS WAR when talking about potential trades with another GM you are sadly mistaken. CF have more positional scarcity than SP, there's some inflation. Offensive CF have even more positional scarcity, there's more inflation. Players with years of control left have more inflation. JJ going to the AL East takes away from his value. JJ coming off a nagging knee injury that wouldn't go away takes away from his value. Prado could have just had a bad year, or he could have started his decline. ATL Has offered them to COL, to BAL, and OAK, and that's just whats been in the press. They are pushing them as a pair and have been since the winter meetings. They see something they don't like and are trying to cash in while they can.

If the Braves are comfortable with dealing them, why should another team be comfortable trading for them?

[CA-ORIOLE]

Of course I am. As I said, all fans will overvalue their own players.

But anyone with a brain knows that Jurrjens/Prado/Beachy >>>>>> Jones

I could even make an argument that Jurrjens for Jones is too much. Jurrjens last year in only 150 innings had a 3.8 WAR. Jones last year when he had his biggest power numbers had a 1.7 WAR.

fWAR say Jones was almost 2 times more valuable than Jurrjens last year (2.9 to 1.5).

[allstar1579]

I don't disagree with that.

If I'm the Orioles, I'm looking for guys that would be under team control for longer than 2 years, anyways. I was more or less addressing the guy who wanted to add Beachy into the deal which is preposterous.

Brandon Beachy - UFA signed in 2008, outpitched his stuff and ability at every level. Feel good story, but is riding on a lot of things going perfectly in his direction so far. FB at 90-93 isn't overpowering or a ton of movement. Mixes in a TON of changeups that vary from 78-85 which isn't a consisntant velo difference. Good for him being able to change speeds so much, but with more exposure to ML hitters and his two other pitches not being very good, he's basically a two-pitch pitcher that changes speeds to get guys off balance. He's got really good command, and that's a plus, sure, but after ML hitters get a couple good looks at him he's going to be exposed. Brad Bergesen had amazing numbers his first 10 starts or so, but once guys figured out to stay away from his sinker, he was toast.

I want nothing to do with Beachy, especially not in the AL East in a hitters park, so overrate away, but at least overrate the more talented guys like Delgado or Minor.

[allstar1579]

And as a historian I'd say you are suffering from confirmation bias. Having talked to him personally I can say this: He is aloof, but nice. He seems content here. He doesn't dislike it in anyway but he won't bend over backwards to stay here. He probably wouldn't bend over backwards to stay any particular place but if given a fair offer he would stay here. I have no doubt about that.

I can tell you that he absolutely has a bias of where he wants to play, and you should be doubting that he would take a fair offer to stay here. He's going to want to get the most money he can get, and he's going to want to play for a contending team like 98% of FA, and I'm willing to bet that he does it for one of the WC teams so he can be back closer to home. Doesn't matter how nice or aloof he is. Texieria is a nice guy outside of baseball, but that didn't stop him from signing with the Yankees.

[Birdfan21]

I want nothing to do with Beachy, especially not in the AL East in a hitters park, so overrate away, but at least overrate the more talented guys like Delgado or Minor.

Not to mention his FB/GB ratio this year was somewhere around 1.8. Sounds like a disaster in Camden Yards.

[Stotle]

The issue with a JJ, Prado and Beachy/Minor/etc. package is that ATL is giving up three ML players. Regardless of ceiling, there is a lot of value in probability, and each of these three are high probability contributors in some form.

The reality is that JJ is a nice piece in a trade package for Jones, but he just isn't a headliner at this point. His value is (ideally) in large part tied to his track record and the fact that you can comfortably slot him in to the middle of your rotation. That value, however, takes a big hit due to injury risk.

Prado has similar value in that you would generally be comfortable that he is a ML starter, with versatility to boot. But some injury issues last year and a down year from a production standpoint really kill his "now" value.

Beachy/Minor are mid-rotation to back-end guys. There is again good probability, but limited ceiling.

BAL shouldn't expect to get three ML players for Jones -- that is too large a chunk out of ATL's team, even with redundancies. The risk needs to be spread out some over levels. Some of the following would make sense:

1. Tehran/Salcedo

2. Vizcaino/Beachy/Salcedo

3. JJ/Minor/Salcedo

4. Delgado/Spruill/Beachy

5. JJ/Prado/Spruill

If Baltimore were to add something of value to Jones (ML-level) then you can get a slightly better package back from ATL. All of this depends on the reasonableness of both sides, and the necessity of trade. If ATL isn't pressured to make a move, and feels they can compete as is, there is no reason to make any move right now. If ATL believes WAS/FLA/PHI are a step ahead, ATL is more likely to roll the dice and move some of their younger arms.

Thinking BAL will get three "now" ML contributors/high ceiling prospects is wishful thinkings. But so is the idea that BAL is going to take cast-offs of ATL's choosing for Jones -- their top pick and a player that at least a handful of orgs view as potentially one of the better center fielders in the game.

[Sports Guy]

The issue with a JJ, Prado and Beachy/Minor/etc. package is that ATL is giving up three ML players. Regardless of ceiling, there is a lot of value in probability, and each of these three are high probability contributors in some form.

The reality is that JJ is a nice piece in a trade package for Jones, but he just isn't a headliner at this point. His value is (ideally) in large part tied to his track record and the fact that you can comfortably slot him in to the middle of your rotation. That value, however, takes a big hit due to injury risk.

Prado has similar value in that you would generally be comfortable that he is a ML starter, with versatility to boot. But some injury issues last year and a down year from a production standpoint really kill his "now" value.

Beachy/Minor are mid-rotation to back-end guys. There is again good probability, but limited ceiling.

BAL shouldn't expect to get three ML players for Jones -- that is too large a chunk out of ATL's team, even with redundancies. The risk needs to be spread out some over levels. Some of the following would make sense:

1. Tehran/Salcedo

2. Vizcaino/Beachy/Salcedo

3. JJ/Minor/Salcedo

4. Delgado/Spruill/Beachy

5. JJ/Prado/Spruill

If Baltimore were to add something of value to Jones (ML-level) then you can get a slightly better package back from ATL. All of this depends on the reasonableness of both sides, and the necessity of trade. If ATL isn't pressured to make a move, and feels they can compete as is, there is no reason to make any move right now. If ATL believes WAS/FLA/PHI are a step ahead, ATL is more likely to roll the dice and move some of their younger arms.

Thinking BAL will get three "now" ML contributors/high ceiling prospects is wishful thinkings. But so is the idea that BAL is going to take cast-offs of ATL's choosing for Jones -- their top pick and a player that at least a handful of orgs view as potentially one of the better center fielders in the game.

I would love your second trade.

I agree with you...ITs tough to trade 3 ML players for 1...That's why I have brought up Guthrie or JJ and others have brought up Andino.

The question is, does Atl make a trade of just prospects and keep Prado and JJ?

As I have said, I find it hard to believe that a deal can't be worked out here.

[El Gordo]

The issue with a JJ, Prado and Beachy/Minor/etc. package is that ATL is giving up three ML players. Regardless of ceiling, there is a lot of value in probability, and each of these three are high probability contributors in some form.

The reality is that JJ is a nice piece in a trade package for Jones, but he just isn't a headliner at this point. His value is (ideally) in large part tied to his track record and the fact that you can comfortably slot him in to the middle of your rotation. That value, however, takes a big hit due to injury risk.

Prado has similar value in that you would generally be comfortable that he is a ML starter, with versatility to boot. But some injury issues last year and a down year from a production standpoint really kill his "now" value.

Beachy/Minor are mid-rotation to back-end guys. There is again good probability, but limited ceiling.

BAL shouldn't expect to get three ML players for Jones -- that is too large a chunk out of ATL's team, even with redundancies. The risk needs to be spread out some over levels. Some of the following would make sense:

1. Tehran/Salcedo

2. Vizcaino/Beachy/Salcedo

3. JJ/Minor/Salcedo

4. Delgado/Spruill/Beachy

5. JJ/Prado/Spruill

If Baltimore were to add something of value to Jones (ML-level) then you can get a slightly better package back from ATL. All of this depends on the reasonableness of both sides, and the necessity of trade. If ATL isn't pressured to make a move, and feels they can compete as is, there is no reason to make any move right now. If ATL believes WAS/FLA/PHI are a step ahead, ATL is more likely to roll the dice and move some of their younger arms.

Thinking BAL will get three "now" ML contributors/high ceiling prospects is wishful thinkings. But so is the idea that BAL is going to take cast-offs of ATL's choosing for Jones -- their top pick and a player that at least a handful of orgs view as potentially one of the better center fielders in the game.

I would like to see JJ, Prado, Delgado package, for Jones and one of Andino/Tillman/Bergeson

[24fps]

The issue with a JJ, Prado and Beachy/Minor/etc. package is that ATL is giving up three ML players. Regardless of ceiling, there is a lot of value in probability, and each of these three are high probability contributors in some form.

The reality is that JJ is a nice piece in a trade package for Jones, but he just isn't a headliner at this point. His value is (ideally) in large part tied to his track record and the fact that you can comfortably slot him in to the middle of your rotation. That value, however, takes a big hit due to injury risk.

Prado has similar value in that you would generally be comfortable that he is a ML starter, with versatility to boot. But some injury issues last year and a down year from a production standpoint really kill his "now" value.

Beachy/Minor are mid-rotation to back-end guys. There is again good probability, but limited ceiling.

BAL shouldn't expect to get three ML players for Jones -- that is too large a chunk out of ATL's team, even with redundancies. The risk needs to be spread out some over levels. Some of the following would make sense:

1. Tehran/Salcedo

2. Vizcaino/Beachy/Salcedo

3. JJ/Minor/Salcedo

4. Delgado/Spruill/Beachy

5. JJ/Prado/Spruill

If Baltimore were to add something of value to Jones (ML-level) then you can get a slightly better package back from ATL. All of this depends on the reasonableness of both sides, and the necessity of trade. If ATL isn't pressured to make a move, and feels they can compete as is, there is no reason to make any move right now. If ATL believes WAS/FLA/PHI are a step ahead, ATL is more likely to roll the dice and move some of their younger arms.

Thinking BAL will get three "now" ML contributors/high ceiling prospects is wishful thinkings. But so is the idea that BAL is going to take cast-offs of ATL's choosing for Jones -- their top pick and a player that at least a handful of orgs view as potentially one of the better center fielders in the game.

Completely agree with this line of thinking.

6. Prado/Delgado/Salcedo.

[Stotle]

I would like to see JJ, Prado, Delgado package, for Jones and one of Andino/Tillman/Bergeson

ATL would have to think highly of Andino. I don't think Tillman/Bergie are sure enough bets to bridge the gap created by losing three potential 2012 contributors. If I were in a room advising Wren, and Baltimore wanted JJ/Delgado/Prado, I'd be asking for:

Jones/Andino/Avery

Jones/Andino/Schrader

Jones/Johnson

Jones/Guthrie (in this trade, BAL may be able to wrangle a 4th ATL player if it's a single-A type talent that ATL hasn't already invested tons into).

[Stotle]

Completely agree with this line of thinking.

6. Prado/Delgado/Salcedo.

Exactly. I stopped after five, but your "6." is the type of permutation I'd expect to see if both sides decide to meet in the middle somewhere.