Roch: Trade talks with Jones are "intensifying" again?

[Lucky Jim]

Which is why it is much better to get your park factors from a well respected BASEBALL stat site versus a generic bs dumbed down espn type

Like BP? Which ranked OPACY 5th?

My quick survey of Stat Corner (you're "respected BASEBALL site") has OPACY coming out around 4th-5th overall (for HR factor).

[mikegallo]

Like BP? Which ranked OPACY 5th?

My quick survey of Stat Corner (you're "respected BASEBALL site") has OPACY coming out around 4th-5th overall.

Which is why AJ is greatly helped by OPACY given his only decent skill is his power....And to disregard Stat Corner is to do the same to fangraphs since they cite it often...But given that your the foremost authority on all things baseball, I digress.

[Lucky Jim]

Which is why AJ is greatly helped by OPACY given his only decent skill is his power....And to disregard Stat Corner is to do the same to fangraphs since they cite it often...But given that your the foremost authority on all things baseball, I digress.

You're remarkable. I didn't disregard anything (though I do disregard Fangraphs from time-to-time). I said I don't know their methodology. Do you?

I've said clearly, from my first post, that OPACY generally plays somewhere in the 5-8 range for HR park factor. You said it was the best home run environment in baseball.

Which is more accurate?

[TiredofLosing20]

Id say using career numbers given SS is much better at showing a players enviormental stat boost than a single year or 81 games...Whenever any gives evidence showing a beloved Oriole player to be overrated in any way he gets slamed....Unless the board mainstays say it's an ok conclusion of course.

Since your argument appears to be based on power and park effects I did a little quick study using ISO..

Jones ISO splits

2009 - Home 207 Away 150 Difference + 57

2010 - Home 157 Away 160 Difference - 3

2011 - Home 268 Away 100 Difference + 168

One of those does is not like the others.....

In comparison I looked at Nick (even tho he is LH)

His career splits are

Home 166 Away 149 Difference +17

Figured I would look at Reynolds since he was "HR or nothing" and Hardy too since he was also RH and put up decent power numbers.

Reynolds

Home 245 Away 278 Difference -33

Hardy

Home 232 Away 213 Difference +19

You can certainly argue that there are other factors for Hardy and Reynolds but to look at one season (2011) for Jones and say that he is a product of OPACY and place trade value (or any value frankly) seems short sighted to me.

[Lucky Jim]

Since your argument appears to be based on power and park effects I did a little quick study using ISO..

Jones ISO splits

2009 - Home 207 Away 150 Difference + 57

2010 - Home 157 Away 160 Difference - 3

2011 - Home 268 Away 100 Difference + 168

One of those does is not like the others.....

In comparison I looked at Nick (even tho he is LH)

His career splits are

Home 166 Away 149 Difference +17

Figured I would look at Reynolds since he was "HR or nothing" and Hardy too since he was also RH and put up decent power numbers.

Reynolds

Home 245 Away 278 Difference -33

Hardy

Home 232 Away 213 Difference +19

You can certainly argue that there are other factors for Hardy and Reynolds but to look at one season (2011) for Jones and say that he is a product of OPACY and place trade value (or any value frankly) seems short sighted to me.

Right. There's an inherent flaw in mixing OPS with HR-park factors. Not fatal, but significant.

[mikegallo]

You're remarkable. I didn't disregard anything (though I do disregard Fangraphs from time-to-time). I said I don't know their methodology. Do you?

I've said clearly, from my first post, that OPACY generally plays somewhere in the 5-8 range for HR park factor. You said it was the best home run environment in baseball.

Which is more accurate?

Yeah we can all reframe the argument to make eachother look better/worse....Your a lawyer?..Lobbyist?

Really the argument is AJ is vastly overrated on this board due to marginal Major League Cfer/Off skills other than a decent power tool which is greatly enhanced by his park...

So in the mist of your nitpicking my one word in the hundreds I wrote here you have managed to derail the thread 100% while trying to reframe the argument of a poster who you dislike, regardless of the multiple facts that I have spewed all over the place.

Once again Lucky Jim, god of knowledge and wisdom on all things stats/baseball/fact related I must defer to your wisdom...OPACY is in fact not the best at helping the long ball just merely top 5..

[backwardsk]

Why did Jones hit more HRs away in 2010 and only 3 less away in 2009 despite 30 some less PA?

Why is this question not addressed by those that claim that Jones is heavily favored by OPACY? Prior to 2011, he had hit a grand total of 1 more home run at home than on the road in his Oriole career.

BTW, I could see Detroit make a play for Jones and move him to a corner spot.

[Lucky Jim]

He is product of the best home run environment in baseball.

It's generally 5th-8th HR-park factor-wise.

OPACY is in fact not the best at helping the long ball just merely top 5..

Yes. I come off terribly here.

[mikegallo]

Since your argument appears to be based on power and park effects I did a little quick study using ISO..

Jones ISO splits

2009 - Home 207 Away 150 Difference + 57

2010 - Home 157 Away 160 Difference - 3

2011 - Home 268 Away 100 Difference + 168

One of those does is not like the others.....

In comparison I looked at Nick (even tho he is LH)

His career splits are

Home 166 Away 149 Difference +17

Figured I would look at Reynolds since he was "HR or nothing" and Hardy too since he was also RH and put up decent power numbers.

Reynolds

Home 245 Away 278 Difference -33

Hardy

Home 232 Away 213 Difference +19

You can certainly argue that there are other factors for Hardy and Reynolds but to look at one season (2011) for Jones and say that he is a product of OPACY and place trade value (or any value frankly) seems short sighted to me.

No my argument is not based on just iso and park effects but I can see why you would think that since Lucky Jim has managed to derail the thread to make it seem so...The fact is AJ would not be the player he is in another extreme environment such as PETCO or SAFECO or SANFRAN and given that fact I can see why Braves fans feel we overvalue him in the proposed trade.

[Lucky Jim]

...regardless of the multiple facts that I have spewed all over the place.

Once again Lucky Jim, god of knowledge and wisdom on all things stats/baseball/fact related I must defer to your wisdom...OPACY is in fact not the best at helping the long ball just merely top 5..

You certainly "spew."

(1) I don't "dislike" you.

(2) I agree that Jones should probably be traded.

No my argument is not based on just iso and park effects but I can see why you would think that since Lucky Jim has managed to derail the thread to make it seem so...The fact is AJ would not be the player he is in another extreme environment such as PETCO or SAFECO or SANFRAN and given that fact I can see why Braves fans feel we overvalue him in the proposed trade.

Also, "ha."

[mikegallo]

Yes. I come off terribly here.

Dude your bs nitpicking has completely derailed the thread and turned it into something that is just a waste....It's my fault for engaging you I should have just showed the links of the park factors and ignored you...Really why do you always interject yourself into my threads in the SAME WAY every time its annoying really and yes it makes you look like a (Im just not gonna say that)...

Anyway your tedious nitpicking just has got to stop so we can have some real baseball talk instead of this crap.

[Lucky Jim]

Dude your bs nitpicking has completely derailed the thread and turned it into something that is just a waste....It's my fault for engaging you I should have just showed the links of the park factors and ignored you...Really why do you always interject yourself into my threads in the SAME WAY every time its annoying really and yes it makes you look like a Flimsy Morales...

Anyway your tedious nitpicking just has got to stop so we can have some real baseball talk instead of this crap.

Did I fix that for you?

I'm not sure what the problem is. All I did was try to correct a foundational assertion. Which, two pages later, you conceded. Why that's my fault, and not yours, is beyond me.

[Austin]

Dude your bs nitpicking has completely derailed the thread and turned it into something that is just a waste....It's my fault for engaging you I should have just showed the links of the park factors and ignored you...Really why do you always interject yourself into my threads in the SAME WAY every time its annoying really and yes it makes you look like a (Im just not gonna say that)...

Anyway your tedious nitpicking just has got to stop so we can have some real baseball talk instead of this crap.

How is this "your" thread? You've said yourself that you exaggerate your claims to "get a response"... well, here it is. Don't cry victim when someone calls you out.

[Lucky Jim]

How is this "your" thread? You've said yourself that you exaggerate your claims to "get a response"... well, here it is. Don't cry victim when someone calls you out.

And the negative rep. Amazing.

[Frobby]

It is way above average top 3ish in HR help and AJs stats are so overwhelmingly helped by our park given his skillset that Braves fans have every right to believe that AJ would produce well below average in LF and in turn not want to give up any prospects for him.

We can debate just how far above average it is, but your statement that it is "the best home run environment in baseball" was simpy hyperbole. It isn't.

Now, do I think Jones hits fewer HR in Atlanta than in Baltimore? Yeah, probably a few less.