Guthrie traded to Rockies for Hammel & Lindstrom

[CA-ORIOLE]

Agreed and I am inclined to agree with DD in that line of thinking and as far as this trade goes I think many on here are overvaluing are guy and just aren't giving this trade a fair shake, here's why......

1. Guthrie basically had little to no value for this team going forward in terms of adding long term pieces to this team. He has one year left and given that DD stated there were no LT pieces offered now I see no reason to believe Guthrie is gonna blow the league away this year enough to up his value at the trade deadline to get us anything worth while....People just don't realize the league has really transformed into a pitchers game the last two years and a guy like Guthrie just doesn't hve the value he did 3 years ago...MOR starters are everywhere now just look at what E-Jax got as a FA...He is a much better pitcher than Guthrie who is being paid about the same contract on the open market and to thing Guthrie will get us anything with LT value is just not logical.

2. Hammel has had two years in the last three better than Guthrie has EVER had...He is a hard thrower who has two years left of team control and if he can get back to his xfip/fip of 2009/2010 he has a much better chance at getting us a LT piece than Guthrie did...Guthrie just has no surplus value at this point and Hammel does...Hammel gives us some chance of getting better, it's a risk, but this team needs to take risks to get better (which is something we hammer them about all the time).

3. Lindstrom is not a throw in by any means....The last two years he would have been one of our best RP and is under control for the next 2 years....Once again he has a chance to turn into a LT piece at the deadline or next offseason something Guthrie just won't do....He is a flame thrower who has had success in the Majors with a 3 something xfip/fip the last two years....That has alot of value at the deadline for sure if he pitches like he has in the past.

4. Guthrie is on the wrong side of thirty in his last year for a team who won't contend and about to go through a messy hearing which could hurt us with him being the Vet leader to the young guys...I know I don't want a pissed Guthrie in the clubhouse all year thats for sure. There just isn't much upside in keeping this guy around.

5. Hammel has been a 4 win pitcher two of the last three years...That is Elite type production and another 4 win season and suddenly he gets us a nice package of prospects next offseason and you still have a very good reliever in Lindstrom plus some LT prospects.

6. Lindstrom had a HR/9 of .5 last year in Coors field last year and has shown throughout his career his ability to prevent HR's and that is the biggest keys to success in pitching at OPACY.

All in all I really think this was a good roll of the dice by DD...At best you get a great two years out of these guys with 5+ WAR from them or you get a koji or sherrill trade package from Lindstrom and one of E-jax many trade packages type package for Hammel....At worst these guys flame out and you cut your loses and next offseason your in the same spot you would have been with guthrie, who I wouldn't want us to resign anyway...

I see alot of potential LT upside and virtually no LT downside, while there is potential downside for this upcoming season I think it is very mitagated by the potential rewards....This is the typical high upside move this team never makes and which is a nessacary move for this team to get out of the basement...Guthrie should have been traded 3 years ago, he wasn't, so DD pulled a move which could give us our best SP and RP for next year.

This is a B+ with a downside of a C grade and an upside of an A...........

I'll be expecting some comments and Rep......Thats a joke by the way.

For all his pontificating and hyperbole in other some other posts, I'd say Mike Gallo is the guy that really nailed this one.

[Lucky Jim]

For all his pontificating and hyperbole in other some other posts, I'd say Mike Gallo is the guy that really nailed this one.

Well, sure. He was agreeing with me.*

*That's a joke. There were a solid number of posters who defended the move and did so pretty clearly. MG foremost among them.

[Austin]

Well, I was wrong. My main gripe was that it didn't really seem to make any long term sense... I thought Guthrie was worth more, but I guess there wasn't much of a market for him. I had no idea Hammel would have such a turnaround.

[Lucky Jim]

The funny, over the top. negative posts, were just too many to multi quote. You'll have to go back to page 1 and read them yourselves. I wonder how many of those are willing to admit they overreacted?

Well, I'm blushing. Thanks.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Not sure of your logic in the bolded. What has how the bullpen has performed without Lindstrom got anything to do with your assessment of Lindstrom? I'll admit, EVERYONE thought Lindstrom as a mediocre reliever. Before he got hurt, he was much better than I expected and was missing bats.

Interesting that Lindstrom and Hammel both seem to become more effective with their 2 seam FB's this year. Lindstom was particularly vocal about how it had made him a much better pitcher this year. Hammel down played the Coors thing making his 2 seam less effective, so I'm wondering/guessing if that has a lot to do with our staff/coaching.

[Lucky Jim]

When you're right, you're right! **** happens!

Ha. I think in a separate thread I wrote this (probably contra Allstar):

Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking. Colorado also suppresses K%, and performance similar to 2009-2010 could theoretically result in a very respectable 8ish K/9.

One of the reasons I imagine the K-rate is suppressed is atmospheric. Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered. This issue may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that, according to scouting reports I've read, Hammel likes to go to his breaking pitches with two strikes.

None of this is sure-fire. In fact, take it with a grain of salt. For instance, while his splits in Colorado appear to generally favor his away outings, he was better at home last year. Likewise, his K-rates have always been higher at home, in Colorado. I'm not sure this empties out the argument completely - though it certainly may. I don't write off the fact that Hammel may have adapted to pitch against his strengths in Colorado, however.

Again, grain of salt, etc. But these are possible wild-card factors that the O's may have taken into consideration.

I think that this trade is an excellent example of how a team like the Orioles needs to identify and score hidden value. Overlooking Hammel's terrible 2011 (but identifying his good end to the year) and accounting for his advanced-statistical value in the two prior years, while using scouting to identify him as a guy whose stuff would play up immensely outside of Coors - just really good work.

And the thing is, that Hammel need not pitch like a No. 1 going forward to make this trade have value. It just does. Period.

[Pedro Cerrano]

Seriously. Who the hell is our opening day starter? Chen? Britton? Wada?

Agree with this 100%. This seems like making a deal just for the sake of making a deal. Which undoubtedly means PA is involved. Any chance he was angry with the pre-arb negotiations and demanded DD make a deal?

This just reeks of PA. I just can't get that idea out of my head.

Hey, SrMeowMeow, I was dead wrong on this one.

Jason Hammel has been our 2nd best SP and when Lindstrom comes back that will only boost an already legit bullpen.

Looking forward to it.

[Lucky Jim]

Hey, SrMeowMeow, I was dead wrong on this one.

Jason Hammel has been our 2nd best SP and when Lindstrom comes back that will only boost an already legit bullpen.

Looking forward to it.

Whose been our best?

[Pedro Cerrano]

Whose been our best?

I think Chen, only because he's been a hair more consistent IMO.

[Tony-OH]

Not sure of your logic in the bolded. What has how the bullpen has performed without Lindstrom got anything to do with your assessment of Lindstrom? I'll admit, EVERYONE thought Lindstrom as a mediocre reliever. Before he got hurt, he was much better than I expected and was missing bats.

Because I said the bullpen was already solid without him. It was and has been since his injury. He was much better than I expected as well, but his track record suggested that was not going to last.

[Lucky Jim]

Because I said the bullpen was already solid without him. It was and has been since his injury. He was much better than I expected as well, but his track record suggested that was not going to last.

I agree, to a point. I do think that having Lindstrom rested and in the fold may prove very valuable in, say, a month and a half, as our current bullpen starts to wear down.

[Tony-OH]

I agree, to a point. I do think that having Lindstrom rested and in the fold may prove very valuable in, say, a month and a half, as our current bullpen starts to wear down.

Very good point and I agree. I'm hoping a healthy Lindstrom will be able to do just that because workload is a huge concern over the second half. Ayala is on pace for 76 innings pitched which would the most he's pitched since 2008 (75.2), Strop is on pace for 80.5 which would beat his career high of 64 (2009 in the minors), O'day is also on pace for 80.5 innings which is 19 more than his career high of 62 in 2010. In the end, a healthy Lindstrom or the possible addition of Pomeranz will enable Buck to lean less heavily on those three guys and hopefully keep them fresh throughout the year.

[Lucky Jim]

I agree, to a point. I do think that having Lindstrom rested and in the fold may prove very valuable in, say, a month and a half, as our current bullpen starts to wear down.

Very good point and I agree. I'm hoping a healthy Lindstrom will be able to do just that because workload is a huge concern over the second half. Ayala is on pace for 76 innings pitched which would the most he's pitched since 2008 (75.2), Strop is on pace for 80.5 which would beat his career high of 64 (2009 in the minors), O'day is also on pace for 80.5 innings which is 19 more than his career high of 62 in 2010. In the end, a healthy Lindstrom or the possible addition of Pomeranz will enable Buck to lean less heavily on those three guys and hopefully keep them fresh throughout the year.

To be fair, I don't think any of us were thinking "we'll need surplus relief arms for the pennant run" back in February.

[DrungoHazewood]

To be fair, I don't think any of us were thinking "we'll need surplus relief arms for the pennant run" back in February.

It was more along the lines of "well, at least there's less of a chance Victor Santos will be allowing 4 runs/out come September."

[Greg]

Best trade ever.