Dan Duquette: No teams were willing to offer us young prospects in return for Guthrie

[Lucky Jim]

What two years were they? His ERA and innings pitch seem pretty consistent as a starter. He has never had a year like guthrie had in 2008 and 2010.

He's referring to advanced metrics. (FIP, xFIP.)

The differing perspective arise out of the differences in metrics.

[atomic]

He's referring to advanced metrics. (FIP, xFIP.)

The differing perspective arise out of the differences in metrics.

Oh well as starter I think ERA is a pretty good statistic. And he was the fourth best ERA of 5 starters on his team in 2010. He wasn't anywhere close to being 3rd. Pretty awful ERA. I don't think you can use other stats to make that look any better. But he will fit in well with the Orioles.

[Lucky Jim]

Oh well as starter I think ERA is a pretty good statistic. And he was the fourth best ERA of 5 starters on his team in 2010. He wasn't anywhere close to being 3rd. Pretty awful ERA. I don't think you can use other stats to make that look any better. But he will fit in well with the Orioles.

I think a lot of savvy folks would disagree, but you're certainly entitled to cling to whatever stats you want to support your point.

[atomic]

I think a lot of savvy folks would disagree, but you're certainly entitled to cling to whatever stats you want to support your point.

Well what is more important for a pitcher than the runs scored against you? As 3 other starters on his team had way lower ERA you can't say his poor ERA was based on bad fielding, and pitching in a hitters park. And you can cling to whatever irrelevant stats support your opinion.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Oh well as starter I think ERA is a pretty good statistic.

Raw ERA really isn't very good. You need to at least use ERA+ to get an idea of how the pitcher compared relative to the park and league factors. As far as the peripheral stats go (FIP/XFIP), Hammels was pretty good in 2009 and 2010. His BB and K rates were good and he allowed HR's at a relatively low rate for his park factor. Was last year fluke and will he translate to the competition in the AL East is certanly another matter.

[atomic]

Raw ERA really isn't very good. You need to at least use ERA+ to get an idea of how the pitcher compared relative to the park and league factors. As far as the peripheral stats go (FIP/XFIP), Hammels was pretty good in 2010 and 2011. His BB and K rates were good and he allowed HR's at a relatively low rate for his park factor. Was last year fkluke and will he ttranslate to the competitioon in the AL East is certanly another matter.

But last year he had better ERA was better than 2010. And Guthrie had over twice the War as him in 2010. I think people are grasping for anything instead of accepting the obvious.

[Lucky Jim]

Well what is more important for a pitcher than the runs scored against you? As 3 other starters on his team had way lower ERA you can't say his poor ERA was based on bad fielding, and pitching in a hitters park. And you can cling to whatever irrelevant stats support your opinion.

I think a lot of folks would disagree, again.

[JTrea81]

But last year he had better ERA was better than 2010. And Guthrie had over twice the War as him in 2010. I think people are grasping for anything instead of accepting the obvious.

He's younger than Guthrie, seemed to figure things out after being demoted to the bullpen, and in the past 3 seasons including 2011 has been more valuable than Guthrie.

Duquette may have pulled off a nice deal if Hammel has indeed figured things out and is now pitching instead of throwing as he admitted to.

[Lucky Jim]

But last year he had better ERA was better than 2010. And Guthrie had over twice the War as him in 2010. I think people are grasping for anything instead of accepting the obvious.

You think a lot of things are "obvious" and "simple." I'd be worried that it's the result of being unable to understand complexity.

[SrMeowMeow]

ERA is not terrible, but it's terrible.

[CA-ORIOLE]

But last year he had better ERA was better than 2010. And Guthrie had over twice the War as him in 2010. I think people are grasping for anything instead of accepting the obvious.

Yeah, that was a typo. Hammel was good in 2009 and 2010. He was very bad in 2011. Hammel had a 3.9 fWAR in 2009 and 2010. In terms of ERA+ it looks like Hammel has been slightly better the past three years even with the awful 2011. The peripherals (FIP/XFIP) which look heaviloy at, BB/K rate and HR's allowed (based on park) favor Hammel. Not to mention he's younger and cheaper with an extra year of team control.

An no, I'm not grasping at straws. If you don't understand that fact that raw ERA can be quite different from a pitcher pitching half his games in PETCO park and another one pitching half his games in COORS stadium, then there's not a lot I can do to help you.

[bandy75]

You think a lot of things are "obvious" and "simple." I'd be worried that it's the result of being unable to understand complexity.

[atomic]

Yeah, that was a typo. Hammel was good in 2009 and 2010. He was very bad in 2011. Hammel had a 3.9 fWAR in 2009 and 2010. In terms of ERA+ it looks like Hammel has been slightly better the past three years even with the awful 2011. The peripherals (FIP/XFIP) which look heaviloy at, BB/K rate and HR's allowed (based on park) favor Hammel. Not to mention he's younger and cheaper with an extra year of team control.

An no, I'm not grasping at straws. If you don't understand that fact that raw ERA can be quite different from a pitcher pitching half his games in PETCO park and another one pitching half his games in COORS stadium, then there's not a lot I can do to help you.

nevermind that he had basically exactly the same results for 2010 and 2011. Era + basically the same. era similar. 4th best era among starters on his team both years. home runs given up just about the same. More walks but a hit less per nine innings. So evens out. War was better in 2011 than 2010.

[El Gordo]

nevermind that he had basically exactly the same results for 2010 and 2011. Era + basically the same. era similar. 4th best era among starters on his team both years. home runs given up just about the same. More walks but a hit less per nine innings. So evens out. War was better in 2011 than 2010.

What WAR are you talking about? According to FanGaraphs he had a 3.9 WAR in 2010 and a 1 War in 2011.

[atomic]

What WAR are you talking about? According to FanGaraphs he had a 3.9 WAR in 2010 and a 1 War in 2011.

Well i used baseball reference war and you used fanagraphs war. To me baseball reference calculation is much more accurate of the two. Fanagraphs is based on bb, k's, and hrs. It doesn't account for hits at all. So he had more walks in 2011 than 2010 but he reduced his hits. So that is why he gave up the same amount of runs and why fanagraphs stat doesn't mean much. Fanagraphs also doesn't take into quality of opposition while baseball reference does.