Dan Duquette: No teams were willing to offer us young prospects in return for Guthrie

[SrMeowMeow]

Well i used baseball reference war and you used fanagraphs war. To me baseball reference calculation is much more accurate of the two. Fanagraphs is based on bb, k's, and hrs. It doesn't account for hits at all. So he had more walks in 2011 than 2010 but he reduced his hits. So that is why he gave up the same amount of runs and why fanagraphs stat doesn't mean much. Fanagraphs also doesn't take into quality of opposition while baseball reference does.

What?

[JTrea81]

Well i used baseball reference war and you used fanagraphs war. To me baseball reference calculation is much more accurate of the two. Fanagraphs is based on bb, k's, and hrs. It doesn't account for hits at all. So he had more walks in 2011 than 2010 but he reduced his hits. So that is why he gave up the same amount of runs and why fanagraphs stat doesn't mean much. Fanagraphs also doesn't take into quality of opposition while baseball reference does.

BBRef penalizes or rewards the pitcher for the fielding behind him where Fangraphs takes into account FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching to get a more accurate value of that pitcher's performance. GB pitchers get penalized pretty heavily in BBRef if they have a lousy defense behind them.

[mikegallo]

I'm certain the alternative to Hammel and Lindstrom wasn't some A level prospect. But considering the return, it made more sense to hold onto Guthrie and either see if the value goes up at the trading deadline or take the supplemental pick. Instead we have two replacement level pitchers for at least two years instead of one replacement level pitcher for one year plus a supplemental pick.

In no way are we tied to either pitcher for more than a year besides Lindstrom's 200K peanut buyout, you can non-tender Hammel....I think you are really underrating this trade for a host of reasons I just don't have time to list right now.

[mikegallo]

Sure, if he suddenly becomes a better pitcher than he is. Just looking at his pitch values and peripherals outside of 2009-2010, Hammel appears to be a guy who will struggle in the AL East. I hope DD is right and the peripherals are wrong, but at best this trade will be a wash and that's not the kind of trade the Orioles need to be making. Remember, the trade as it stands right now is Guthrie and a supplemental 1st round pick for Hammel and Lindstrom.

No it's not there is virtually no chance of a supplemental pick for Guthrie, unless he is a different pitcher with a C.J Wilson type improvement....Zero chance Guthrie gets us a pick...Zero.

[CA-ORIOLE]

nevermind that he had basically exactly the same results for 2010 and 2011. Era + basically the same. era similar. 4th best era among starters on his team both years. home runs given up just about the same. More walks but a hit less per nine innings. So evens out. War was better in 2011 than 2010.

I'm not really following you here other than you're fixated on rWar and don't want to consider much else. The K and BB rate are pretty significant indicators for pitchers future performance and Hammel had significant issues in 2011. I don't really care for rWar, and typically don't look at it, but rWar for starting pitchers (relievers is a different matter) is actually the one element I don't have too much of an issue with as compared to fWar's basis in FIP. There are some things to like about Hammel with respect to his peripherals/age/salary etc. as compared to Guthrie. We'll see how it works out with respect to future performance.

[CA-ORIOLE]

BBRef penalizes or rewards the pitcher for the fielding behind him where Fangraphs takes into account FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching to get a more accurate value of that pitcher's performance. GB pitchers get penalized pretty heavily in BBRef if they have a lousy defense behind them.

That's a little misleading I think. As I understand it, it neutralizes the defensive contribution (based on TZ performance) a pitcher receives. If he receives negative support (below average), then he'll be adjusted positively for that. Also, hit data should be broken down by hit type and GB pitchers are additionally adjusted as far as I know. Unlike fWar/FIP it neutralizes defense instead of neutralizing babip. I have some issues with the accuracy of TZ and the leverage/leverage sequencing that rWar uses but rWar's approach has its merits for starting pitchers imo. Groundball pitchers likely get punished more on FIP/fWar they they do on rWar.

[JTrea81]

That's a little misleading I think. As I understand it, it neutralizes the defensive contribution (based on TZ performance) a pitcher receives. If he receives negative support (below average), then he'll be adjusted positively for that. Also, hit data should be broken down by hit type and GB pitchers are additionally adjusted as far as I know. Unlike fWar/FIP it neutralizes defense instead of neutralizing babip. I have some issues with the accuracy of TZ and the leverage/leverage sequencing that rWar uses but rWar's approach has its merits for starting pitchers imo. Groundball pitchers likely get punished more on FIP/fWar they they do on rWar.

Let's just look at our two best arms and how they differ:

Zach Britton - 2.5 fWAR, 1.3 rWAR (4.00 FIP, 4.61 ERA)

Jeremy Guthrie - 2.1 fWAR, 2.9 rWAR ( 4.48 FIP, 4.33 ERA)

Britton was severely penalized for the Orioles' poor defense around him, but his FIP shows that he pitched better than Guthrie did. Fangraphs shows this while BBRef does not.

[Sports Guy]

No it's not there is virtually no chance of a supplemental pick for Guthrie, unless he is a different pitcher with a C.J Wilson type improvement....Zero chance Guthrie gets us a pick...Zero.

Well, if he had a sub 4 ERA, 200 IP season, like he has had, the Orioles could offer him a 1/12.5M deal and he may decide that he wants a multi-year contract and some team may give it to him.

Still, i think its unlikely.

OTOH, I don't think its unlikely that Guthrie could be dealt at the deadline for a deal that is more beneficial to us long term than the deal we got for him.

[Frobby]

I personally dont know enough about Hammels to put in an opinion.

I will love to see what happens and what everyone feels about this trade in August.

This is pretty much where I am. I really don't remember Hammel at all from when he was with Tampa, and obviously, he has a lot more experience now than he had then. So, as far as I am concerned, I'll just sit back and see what he and Lindstrom can do in the AL East. This could turn out pretty well, or pretty badly.

To SG, I say this: if Hammel has a Guthriesque year for us, isn't he a more valuable asset at the trade deadline (younger, cheaper, under control longer) than Guthrie would have been?

[weams]

Well, if he had a sub 4 ERA, 200 IP season, like he has had, the Orioles could offer him a 1/12.5M deal and he may decide that he wants a multi-year contract and some team may give it to him.

Still, i think its unlikely.

OTOH, I don't think its unlikely that Guthrie could be dealt at the deadline for a deal that is more beneficial to us long term than the deal we got for him.

When they are dealt in season, they return no pick under any circumstances. SO it is a brave new world of in season trades, they will net less return.

[CA-ORIOLE]

Let's just look at our two best arms and how they differ:

Zach Britton - 2.5 fWAR, 1.3 rWAR (4.00 FIP, 4.61 ERA)

Jeremy Guthrie - 2.1 fWAR, 2.9 rWAR ( 4.48 FIP, 4.33 ERA)

Britton was severely penalized for the Orioles' poor defense around him, but his FIP shows that he pitched better than Guthrie did. Fangraphs shows this while BBRef does not.

Britton was likley penalized in rWar for his very poor performance in leverage siutuations. FIP doesn't weigh these as severely. In Britton's case his FIP was likely significantly aided by his very low HR rate in a HR park.

BBref credited Guthrie with net minus 21 runs (pretty huge) for the primarily poor OF support and Britton was credited with minus 6 runs for his lack of defense support (primarily IF).

Also, I had it backwards, GB pitchers get more credit from FIP while FB pitchers get penalized. I've been consistent on that before so not sure why I said it that way. BABIP is much higher for GB pitchers but treated the same for DIPS/FIP purposes. SIERA will break it out better (Britton 4.39).

Britton only pitched 154 inings last year. Do you really think he looked like a 3+ War pitcher if we translated that to over 180 innings?

[Tony-OH]

Its certainly very possible.

Put it this way, I think there is every bit as good a chance that Hammel puts up a sub 4.3 ERA with the O's this year as Guthrie.

That doesn't mean I think this was the move they should have made but there is certainly merit for making the move.

I personally would have preferred them to hang onto him and see what happens in the first half of the season...That is a risk I prefer to take at this point.

It's possible, but not likely. His numbers are not going to improve by pitching half his games in Camden Yards as well as facing AL East hitters. I'll be surprised if the guy posts an ERA under 5. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything about his numbers that suggest he will have success in the AL East or Camden Yards.

[Lucky Jim]

It's possible, but not likely. His numbers are not going to improve by pitching half his games in Camden Yards as well as facing AL East hitters. I'll be surprised if the guy posts an ERA under 5. I hope I'm wrong, but I just don't see anything about his numbers that suggest he will have success in the AL East or Camden Yards.

Colorado is a more difficult place to pitch in than Camden. I think the AL East issue has merit, but not sure why we're worried about OPACY. One thing to note is that Colorado is off-the-charts high for LD park factor, while Camden seems to suppress the issue. Hammel has had an elevated LD% the last few years, and the Orioles may think that they get a context-bump in performance from that alone, w/o any tweaking. Colorado also suppresses K%, and performance similar to 2009-2010 could theoretically result in a very respectable 8ish K/9.

One of the reasons I imagine the K-rate is suppressed is atmospheric. Hammel has two above-average to plus- pitches - his curve and slider. Both are negatively impacted in Colorado. Not all pitchers (especially those who can command a plus-fastball) are going to take the same hit in that park, but Hammel may have been a particularly poor fit, all things considered. This issue may be exacerbated a bit by the fact that, according to scouting reports I've read, Hammel likes to go to his breaking pitches with two strikes.

None of this is sure-fire. In fact, take it with a grain of salt. For instance, while his splits in Colorado appear to generally favor his away outings, he was better at home last year. Likewise, his K-rates have always been higher at home, in Colorado. I'm not sure this empties out the argument completely - though it certainly may. I don't write off the fact that Hammel may have adapted to pitch against his strengths in Colorado, however.

Again, grain of salt, etc. But these are possible wild-card factors that the O's may have taken into consideration.

[Frobby]

An no, I'm not grasping at straws. If you don't understand that fact that raw ERA can be quite different from a pitcher pitching half his games in PETCO park and another one pitching half his games in COORS stadium, then there's not a lot I can do to help you.

But he was comparing Hammel to pitchers on his own team, all of whom pitched approximately the same proportion of their starts at Coors and the other parks as Hammel. For that purpose, using raw ERA isn't that bad.

[Tony-OH]

In no way are we tied to either pitcher for more than a year besides Lindstrom's 200K peanut buyout, you can non-tender Hammel....I think you are really underrating this trade for a host of reasons I just don't have time to list right now.

And I think you are totally overrating the trade. I wasn't against moving Guthrie, but if all you can get is Hammel and Lindstrom, I personally thin you hold on to him and hope someone gets desperate. Lindstrom is ok but he's overpaid. I haven't seen Hammel pitch but the numbers suggest he's going to struggle in the AL East. In other worse. Basically I see this trade at best a wash. Theoretically the trade could be a win for the Orioles if Hammel defies his numbers and pitches better in the AL East then in the weak NL West and Lindstrom has an up year, but I just think the chances of that happening didn't weigh out the 200 plus innings Guthrie virtually guarantees you. Duquette said he wanted to have 200 inning pitchers and now he doesn't have one who has actually done it in the major leagues.

Hammel has averaged 5.6 innings per start over his career and 5.9 last year. However, he did it with an average of 92 pitches and 95 last year. He won't be able to cruise through the 8 and 9 hitters like he did in the National league and teams like the Red Sox and Yankees alone will cause those pitch counts to go up or his innings total go down. With Hammel I see a 5 to 6 inning starter in the AL East who is probably going to have a high 4 or low 5 ERA. He's depth, but I don't see him improving the Orioles in the future when they are competitive.

If you are going to trade people, the Orioles need to be getting guys who have the potential to help the team to become better in the near or longterm future. I don't see either with Hammel.