Jai Miller - 4th Outfielder?

[atomic]

Seams like his BA/OBP sep was pretty high last year and has been pretty good for his career. Maybe there's more room for a better spread with a lower BA. From what little I've seen he looks like a pretty good FB hitter, but the offspeed stuff really eats him up. He doesn't get cheated up there. No doubt he has to cut those K's down. Pretty interesting character.

His OBP on his team last year was his teams average. And his batting average was below average. I am guessing he was in a hitters park.

[Rene88]

Can this guy hit the offspeed pitches? He struck out twice today in clutch situations after getting a fast ball for the homer. Just asking, I don't know much about him. That was just the first thing that jumped out at me. He looks like he has a good batter's eye. I like that.

[DrungoHazewood]

...but I can see his K rates and I can due statistical analysis to say no 26-year old with that kind of K percentage in the minor league ever became a successful major leaguer.

You know I'm skeptical of Miller's ability to hit MLB pitching. But I'm not overwhelmingly skeptical. I think it's possible he could be kind of a Russell Branyan, or at least Branyan-lite. Since 2000 Branyan has 3400 MLB PAs, but also about 1000 minor league PAs. He's struck out in about 30% of his minor league PAs, but also has an .814 major league OPS over the same period.

I don't think it's out of the question that Miller could put up a .700-.750 OPS in the majors, albeit with a monstrous K rate. A true center fielder with good baserunning skills and a .725 OPS can certainly be a productive 5th outfielder. That's basically what we wanted out of Pie.

[Tony-OH]

Let's forget about Miller vs. Chavez because that's not a competition in the real world. It could come down to Miller vs. Nick Johnson. Miller supposedly has speed, defense, and power. Johnson used to be good defensively. Not so sure anymore. He has no speed and it's very questionable what power and hitting skills he has left. He can be sent to Norfolk (unless he has a clause I don't know about). Who do you keep between those two?

If Johnson is healthy, I think he's a better fit because he's an OBP guy. I will certainly give Miller the plus for defense and speed, but that spot is going to have to DH some and I'd rather have a healthy Johnson and his OBP compared to Miller who I think will end up a .200/.220/.380 guy in the major leagues. I understand we can send Johnson to Norfolk without losing him, but I just don't think Miller will be an effective major league player, especially not in an Orioles lineup that consists already of a lot of high strikeout guys.

Johnson has a career .857 OPS and .422 OBP against left-handers. In 2009 he put up a .883 OPS and an amazing .440 OBP against left-handed pitching. Call me crazy, but despite the fact that he's been hurt the last two years with a wrist injury, an injury Johnson says he's over, I think he's going to be a better fit DHing against left-handers than a guy who struck out in nearly 45% of PAs against left-handers last year in AAA.

Chavez is a fourth outfielder. Betemit and Flaherty can both play corner outfield and Andino showed he can go out and play a decent outfield in a pinch if needed as well. With this particular roster I would want Johnson over Miller. As for developing "young talent", I feel Miller is more of a AAAA guy than a young guy we need to "see what we got in."

[DrungoHazewood]

Interesting day for Miller. He hit the three-run dinger and a double, but he also struck out with the bases loaded and only one out in the 10th inning when a fly out or a grounder in the right place would have won the ballgame.

Yes, but if Matt Angle had been in his spot they'd have never gotten to extra innings.

[Tony-OH]

You know I'm skeptical of Miller's ability to hit MLB pitching. But I'm not overwhelmingly skeptical. I think it's possible he could be kind of a Russell Branyan, or at least Branyan-lite. Since 2000 Branyan has 3400 MLB PAs, but also about 1000 minor league PAs. He's struck out in about 30% of his minor league PAs, but also has an .814 major league OPS over the same period.

I don't think it's out of the question that Miller could put up a .700-.750 OPS in the majors, albeit with a monstrous K rate. A true center fielder with good baserunning skills and a .725 OPS can certainly be a productive 5th outfielder. That's basically what we wanted out of Pie.

I think those numbers are generous. Again, it's an age vs level issue. Russel Branyan had 1062 major league PAs where he put up a .796 OPS by the time he was 26-years old. Maybe Branyan just got a shot and Miller hasn't, but I see Miller's lack of contact a major red flag. Last year was the first year Miller ever hit more than 20 home runs in a minor league season. He did that by basically "swinging from his heals" as he struck out once every 2.65 PA. At 26-years of age, Branyan basically did the same thing but at the major league level. As you know, there is a huge difference between the majors and AAA when it comes to the quality of pitching.

Maybe Branyan is his absolute best high ceiling comp, but I'll give him maybe a 10% chance of reaching that comp. If people think that 10% is worth a bench spot, then I guess I'll just have to disagree.

[Tony-OH]

Yes, but if Matt Angle had been in his spot they'd have never gotten to extra innings.

How do you know that? That's nothing more than conjecture. Maybe Angle singles or walks in those situations or maybe Angle goes yard (hey, he homered in the majors). Maybe he doubles or triples in some runs and the next guy knocks the ball out of the park. You just can't say that because Miller homered and doubled a few times that Angle in the same spots could not have done something that helped the team. Go look at Angle's Double-A numbers and June and July of last year in AAA (once he was playing everyday) and tell me he's doesn't have a better chance at being a decent major league hitter than Sir K-a-lot.

[ccbird]

The Miller love is more baffling than the Pie love.

[Tony-OH]

The Miller love is more baffling than the Pie love.

Great comparison. I was not against giving Pie a look, and at least he was young when he put up some nice numbers in AAA, but once I saw Pie play a few times it was clear that guy was not a good major league ball player. Miller is the typical AAAA outfielder who hit a bunch of homers in AAA at 26-years old and now suddenly people start ignoring the fact he struck out once every 2.65 PAs last year while doing it.

I have a hard time picturing Miller having any sustained success while playing in the American League east. Maybe he can be a 5th outfielder for a National league team like the Rockies, where his power might offset the fact he'll probably strike out every other at bat.

I think part of the issue is he just looks the part. I mean when you look at him you say, this is how I want my major leaguers to look like. I also think people like the long ball. Hell, I like the long ball. But I don't think he'll make contact enough in the major leagues for that power to really offset the strikeouts.

Mark Reynolds struck once every 4.2 PAs in his minor league career and he was in the big leagues for good by 23-years old. Jai Miller has struck out once every 3.2 PAs in his career and is now 27-years old coming off a year where he struck out once every 2.65 PA. If Reynolds is one of the most prolific strikeout players in baseball, what would Miller be?

[Enjoy Terror]

A question for you Tony (not being snarky): If Jai Miller and players with his profile (high-K, low contact) players are rarely successful in the majors, why do front offices bother with them? Surely they know the correlation as well as you do. If Miller is everything if not DESTINED for failure, why waste a roster spot and just stick with Chavez?

EDIT: Just for the record, I agree that high-K guys in the minors have nightmarish difficulties staying in the majors.

[Slappy]

A question for you Tony (not being snarky): If Jai Miller and players with his profile (high-K, low contact) players are rarely successful in the majors, why do front offices bother with them? Surely they know the correlation as well as you do. If Miller is everything if not DESTINED for failure, why waste a roster spot and just stick with Chavez?

Yeah I was thinking the same thing. I don't disagree that Miller's K rate in the minors make him a long shot to be a successful major leaguer. But I find it somewhat disingenuous to give a guy a Spring invite to "compete" for a roster spot only to send him back down after performing as well or better than most of the regulars. Just an emotional response, I suppose ("it's not fair!").

[mikegallo]

Jai Miller = Marcus Thames

Except Thames struck out less in the minors. If Jai can pull down strike outs enough to get to Thames level, he is Thames....Thames topped out as a decent bench power bat sometimes platoon guy....If Miller's absolute best potential is Marcus then I think I would rather have Endy and take my chances on getting Miller picked up by another club. Endy is just what are team needs as far as a vet D outfielder who can give us 1-2 WAR this year.

I mean come on guys its a stretch Miller can even be Thames, is it really worth a roster spot to find out? He's a dime a dozen guy and I wouldn't give him a spot over Johnsons .400 career obp or Antonelli's starting 2b potential or RF's potential. I agree with Tony on this one though, check out Thames stats and Miller's.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=thames001mar

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=miller001ran

[Tony-OH]

A question for you Tony (not being snarky): If Jai Miller and players with his profile (high-K, low contact) players are rarely successful in the majors, why do front offices bother with them? Surely they know the correlation as well as you do. If Miller is everything if not DESTINED for failure, why waste a roster spot and just stick with Chavez?

Maybe one of the Orioles scouts saw something in him? Maybe they think he's corrected some problems or perhaps they were enthralled with the hard contact he makes when he actually makes contact. I don't really know. Miller has some things you certainly like in a player like decent defense, a good arm (from what I heard) and obviously some pop when he makes contact, but his extreme inability tomake contact in his minor league career leads me to beleive the chances of him being successful in the major leagues, and especially in the AL East are minimal at best.

I'd like Miller more if he was on a minor league deal and someone we had as AAAA depth because you can probably put him in the majors at times and he'll be able to help out with defense and some speed and maybe even connect once in awhile for some power, but I don't like the fact he's on the 40-man roster and that players like Angle (who had options) and Florimon were let go for nothing. In the grand scheme of things none of this really matters because we talking 4th/5th outfielder types and utility men, but for me personally, I don't think Miller is a good fit for this roster.

[Tony-OH]

Jai Miller = Marcus Thames

Except Thames struck out less in the minors. If Jai can pull down strike outs enough to get to Thames level, he is Thames....Thames topped out as a decent bench power bat sometimes platoon guy....If Miller's absolute best potential is Marcus then I think I would rather have Endy and take my chances on getting Miller picked up by another club. Endy is just what are team needs as far as a vet D outfielder who can give us 1-2 WAR this year.

I mean come on guys its a stretch Miller can even be Thames, is it really worth a roster spot to find out? He's a dime a dozen guy and I wouldn't give him a spot over Johnsons .400 career obp or Antonelli's starting 2b potential or RF's potential. I agree with Tony on this one though, check out Thames stats and Miller's.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=thames001mar

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=miller001ran

A lot less. Thames was a much better overall minor league hitter than Miller. I can't stress enough how contact rate correlates to major league success.

[mikegallo]

Maybe one of the Orioles scouts saw something in him? Maybe they think he's corrected some problems or perhaps they were enthralled with the hard contact he makes when he actually makes contact. I don't really know. Miller has some things you certainly like in a player like decent defense, a good arm (from what I heard) and obviously some pop when he makes contact, but his extreme inability tomake contact in his minor league career leads me to beleive the chances of him being successful in the major leagues, and especially in the AL East are minimal at best.

I'd like Miller more if he was on a minor league deal and someone we had as AAAA depth because you can probably put him in the majors at times and he'll be able to help out with defense and some speed and maybe even connect once in awhile for some power, but I don't like the fact he's on the 40-man roster and that players like Angle (who had options) and Florimon were let go for nothing. In the grand scheme of things none of this really matters because we talking 4th/5th outfielder types and utility men, but for me personally, I don't think Miller is a good fit for this roster.

And that hits the nail on the head. The guy COULD be Thames except Thames put up better numbers in the IL then Miller did in the PCL, otherwise it really is a great comp.