Current Preference List (3/22/2012)

[CamdenTerp]

I saw Gioloto was given the green light to start a throwing program again. Obviously encouraging for him, but will there be enough seen from scouts to believe he is recovered or on the right track to be picked at/or above 1:5?

[LookinUp]

I saw Gioloto was given the green light to start a throwing program again. Obviously encouraging for him, but will there be enough seen from scouts to believe he is recovered or on the right track to be picked at/or above 1:5?

I know this...I want the O's to take this guy. If healthy, I think he cracks Stotle's top 6 from last year. I suspect the top 3 teams won't go that route this year because of the injury. Given what we think we have in Bundy, and our new pitching coordinator, I hope the O's take this kid and groom him to be 1A with Bundy in our future rotation. That upside from two guys would be immense.

[Roll Tide]

With the weakness of our mil hitting prospects especially power I vote for Almora or Correa. Are we able to trade down yet???

[LookinUp]

Trying to get out to see our buddy Kevin Brady from Clemson tonight and Richie Shaffer who looks to be a high corner infield pick.

Did you see Brady? I'm always curious about him. I thought for sure we'd get him signed a couple of years ago.

[allstar1579]

Did you see Brady? I'm always curious about him. I thought for sure we'd get him signed a couple of years ago.

Yeah I caught a couple innings of him. I did more of a rundown of it at the other place, but I can't remember details now. I wasn't overly impressed, but I think that's because I was blown away by Stroman the week before. I can see why he will be a first rounder though. Solid but unspectacular comes to mind.

[allstar1579]

I know this...I want the O's to take this guy. If healthy, I think he cracks Stotle's top 6 from last year. I suspect the top 3 teams won't go that route this year because of the injury. Given what we think we have in Bundy, and our new pitching coordinator, I hope the O's take this kid and groom him to be 1A with Bundy in our future rotation. That upside from two guys would be immense.

If healthy he's no. 1 this year. Should know better in about a week or two after he's thrown a bit and people can see him, but I would take him even with injury concerns over most of the "top 10" candidates.

[LookinUp]

If healthy he's no. 1 this year. Should know better in about a week or two after he's thrown a bit and people can see him, but I would take him even with injury concerns over most of the "top 10" candidates.

The draft is in a month and he hasn't thrown yet. Unless he comes out throwing at his near physical peak...well I find it a little hard to believe an injured HS pitcher goes #1 overall.

[allstar1579]

The draft is in a month and he hasn't thrown yet. Unless he comes out throwing at his near physical peak...well I find it a little hard to believe an injured HS pitcher goes #1 overall.

The rest of the top 5 candidates really aren't #1 or 2 guys, it's weak up top. If he hadn't gotten hurt, he would have gone #1, no brainer. Even with the injury, if it's as non-issue as they say, and he comes back throwing (and he started a throwing program yesterday I think) where he was before, he will be considered there. He's just too talented not to in a weak draft.

[Stotle]

Updated pref list at ESPN SweetSpot blog, Camden Depot. Full article here; includes comparison of Almora and Buxton and video of Kevin Gausman from my Louisiana scouting trip.

Current Preference List (May 9, 2012)

1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.

2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)

3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)

4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.

5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

6. Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

7. Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

8. Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

9. Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)

10. Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

[LookinUp]

Nice write-up. While not explicitly stated, it reads like you think Almora's approach lends itself more toward higher OBP than Buxton.

Based on what you wrote, I'll take the guy with high probability and more advanced approach at the plate (Almora) over the elite toolsy guy who may or may not refine to hit his ceiling (Buxton).

I honestly hadn't even considered Almora in my own personal pref list. I'm liking all of Almora, Correa, Gausman, Gioloto and Appel at the O's spot. As of this date, I'll be really happy with any of them.

It sounds to me like you think Almora, Correa and Gioloto could all be available at 4. If so, good for us.

[Stotle]

Nice write-up. While not explicitly stated, it reads like you think Almora's approach lends itself more toward higher OBP than Buxton.

Based on what you wrote, I'll take the guy with high probability and more advanced approach at the plate (Almora) over the elite toolsy guy who may or may not refine to hit his ceiling (Buxton).

I honestly hadn't even considered Almora in my own personal pref list. I'm liking all of Almora, Correa, Gausman, Gioloto and Appel at the O's spot. As of this date, I'll be really happy with any of them.

It sounds to me like you think Almora, Correa and Gioloto could all be available at 4. If so, good for us.

I believe Houston is narrowing to four choices -- Gausman, Appel, Buxton and Correa. I also think Minnesota takes one of Appel, Gausman and Zimmer (outside shot at Stroman). Seattle should take a bat -- one of Buxton, Correa, and Zunino seems most likely. Taking all of that into account, I'd imagine the best case scenario for Baltimore right now is:

1:1 HOU -- Buxton

1:2 SEA -- Gausman

1:3 SEA -- Zunino

That would leave great options for Baltimore with Almora, Correa, Appel, and Giolito offering different pros and cons.

[Stotle]

Here's the final pref list, dated May 30, 2012. Barring any unforseen changes relating to health or asking price, this is where I came down for Baltimore -- full article has video of all five final targets and comparisons of the college arms against each other, the prep position players against each other and an explanation for Zimmer as a "back-up":

Final Pref List:

1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.

2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)

3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)

4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.

5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

Back-up consideration:

Kyle Zimmer, rhp, Univ. of San Francisco

No longer considering:

Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)

Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

[Frobby]

No longer considering:

Gavin Cecchini, ss, Barbe HS (Lake Charles, La.)

Deven Marrero, ss, Arizona St. Univ.

Lucas Giolito, rhp, Harvard-Westlake HS (Studio City, Calif.)

Mike Zunino, c, Univ. of Florida

Got something against guys whose names end in vowels other than "a?" TonySoprano will not be amused.

[LookinUp]

Here's the final pref list, dated May 30, 2012. Barring any unforseen changes relating to health or asking price, this is where I came down for Baltimore -- full article has video of all five final targets and comparisons of the college arms against each other, the prep position players against each other and an explanation for Zimmer as a "back-up":

Final Pref List:

1. Kevin Gausman, rhp, Louisiana St. Univ.

2. Albert Almora, of, Mater Acad. (Hialeah Gardens, Fla.)

3. Carlos Correa, ss/3b, Puerto Rico Baseball Acad. (Gurabo, P.R.)

4. Mark Appel, rhp, Stanford Univ.

5. Byron Buxton, of, Appling County HS (Baxley, Ga.)

Great write-up, Stotle. You make the case for Gausman very well, and your top four is weighted towards probability over upside (Buxton), which is totally understandable. I am swayed by your write-up w/r/t Gausman. He sounds like a future #1 or #2 if he doesn't refine. Bundy/Gausman at the top would be awesome for this franchise.

A question:

I love Correa's swing. He looks very powerful to me. Do Almora and Buxton project nearly as powerful as Correa? I get that Almora has more positional value, but Correa's upside comp (I know you hate those) seems to me to be Longoria (both offensively and defensively). If that's the case, I have a hard time passing on him over just about anyone. So, I might swap Correa and Almora pending that answer, and I'd be heavily considering Correa as my #1.

[Stotle]

Great write-up, Stotle. You make the case for Gausman very well, and your top four is weighted towards probability over upside (Buxton), which is totally understandable. I am swayed by your write-up w/r/t Gausman. He sounds like a future #1 or #2 if he doesn't refine. Bundy/Gausman at the top would be awesome for this franchise.

A question:

I love Correa's swing. He looks very powerful to me. Do Almora and Buxton project nearly as powerful as Correa? I get that Almora has more positional value, but Correa's upside comp (I know you hate those) seems to me to be Longoria (both offensively and defensively). If that's the case, I have a hard time passing on him over just about anyone. So, I might swap Correa and Almora pending that answer, and I'd be heavily considering Correa as my #1.

The top five, for me, is literally even. At the end of the day, you need to make choices, so this is where I came out. Correa has the talent to go 1-1, and the upside is huge. I think, production wise, he's potentially 2009 Longoria to 2010 Adrian Beltre, with the glove to match. He hasn't been challenged a great deal, so you need to trust your scouting eye if you put him at the very top of the list. I think it's absolutely defensible to do so -- but as far as my process (where it currently stands) he loses the coin flip to both Gausman and Almora.

In the power department, Buxton and Correa are probably comparable as to power ceiling, but Correa has a higher probability rating. Almora is a step behind, but it requires projecting some. Almora's hit tool is the best of the three, but that's not to say he couldn't fall short of projection with Correa and/or Buxton surpassing him.

The most important thing in evaluating is having a process your trust and following that process. Gut feelings are worth noting, but you really have to figure out where that feeling is comign from. Otherwise, you aren't going to be successful in refining your process and your results are going to be more reliant on luck than they should be.