Current Preference List (3/22/2012)

[Stotle]

Thanks! I suspected as much. If either, Gausman/Almora or Gausman/Correa, both very possible, are available at #4, my brain might explode if I had to choose between them. Bundy/Gausman/Britton/Matusz would certainly look good as a future rotation. But, we have a real lack of hitters, particularly guys that can fill that MOO need. Based on that, Correa would really appeal to me, as well.

Last question. You mentioned that if Machado had to move to third, it would drop him below Buxton. But, your write-up seemed to indicate that Correa was very likely to end up making that very move. If he's at 3B instead of SS, does he stay ahead of Machado?

Yes -- I like Correa's bat and future power better than I do Machado's.

[McNulty]

Nick, Almora ahead of Machado? I'm very surprised by that. Can you explain?

Edit: Lets make a friendly wager on who has the better pro career. I'll take Zimmer, you take Gausman.

[NCRaven]

If Machado was considered an excellent pick at #3, I would have to be very tempted to take Correa if he's sitting there at #4.

[mcgraw238]

Sounds like we get a good prospect if we end up with one of Gausman, Correa or Almora. I'm happy if our scouting director ranks these guys and grabs the one they like the best. I'm partial to the front end pitcher type but if they see something special in one of the high schoolers, then pull the trigger.

[Stotle]

Nick, Almora ahead of Machado? I'm very surprised by that. Can you explain?

Edit: Lets make a friendly wager on who has the better pro career. I'll take Zimmer, you take Gausman.

1.Comparable offensive upside, and

2. plus or better defense in center versus uncertain value at short or move to third base.

I mean, we can make that bet re: Zimmer/Gausman, but I don't honestly think there is a ton that separates them. The big knock on Zimmer is that he hasn't really ever had to hold up and maintain stuff over a long season (and didn't do it this spring). Also some pitch plane concerns. But his pure stuff is up there with Gausman's when both are at their best. Zimmer is the more appealing "project" because he's such a good athlete and really hasn't devoted a ton of time to the craft.

If you want to knock Gausman, you'd do a better job of it picking someone who isn't a top 5 candidate and claiming they'll have a better career.

[McNulty]

1.Comparable offensive upside, and

2. plus or better defense in center versus uncertain value at short or move to third base.

I mean, we can make that bet re: Zimmer/Gausman, but I don't honestly think there is a ton that separates them. The big knock on Zimmer is that he hasn't really ever had to hold up and maintain stuff over a long season (and didn't do it this spring). Also some pitch plane concerns. But his pure stuff is up there with Gausman's when both are at their best. Zimmer is the more appealing "project" because he's such a good athlete and really hasn't devoted a ton of time to the craft.

If you want to knock Gausman, you'd do a better job of it picking someone who isn't a top 5 candidate and claiming they'll have a better career.

I'm not knocking him, just going with my gut. You seem more sold on him than most. Or I guess you have him ranked higher than Appel and Zimmer, which I feel like I've barely seen.

[allstar1579]

I'm not knocking him, just going with my gut. You seem more sold on him than most. Or I guess you have him ranked higher than Appel and Zimmer, which I feel like I've barely seen.

I think most have Gausman between Appel and Zimmer. Zimmer was a twinge higher pre-season, but as Stotle said didn't really show what people were hoping to see this spring from him. On the other hand, Gausman's offspeed stuff has gotten very mixed reviews depending on who you talk to. Appel came on strong down the stretch, but got knocked around a bit in the middle of the season.

There's pros and cons for all of them for sure. You kinda have to do like you said and follow your gut.

[Stotle]

I'm not knocking him, just going with my gut. You seem more sold on him than most. Or I guess you have him ranked higher than Appel and Zimmer, which I feel like I've barely seen.

Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but I think most of the info out there is incomplete and I do think that my process is closer to the process used by many of the decisionmakers. For example, none of Appel, Gausman or Zimmer jump out as heads-and-tails above the other if you look at there stat lines. But if you parse the stats and look for particular red flags or encouraging signs, there are some legitimate arguments for ordering these kids in certain orders, depending on player types you like and areas you feel comfortable projecting.

Additionally, there are legitimate aspects of each of their backgrounds, experience, track record, mechanics, arsenal and even performance patterns that can additionally be viewed as positive or negative, depending on your overarching philosophy in projecting players out. The one thing I feel comfortable about is that I have Gausman as my favorite of the three for legitimate, arguable reasons. That is, I think I've been able to put together the pieces of the puzzle such that Gausman is closer to "the draft prospect I'd design if I was building one from scratch" than are any of the other arms. That doesn't mean I think that I'm right. But if I'm wrong, I know that I have certain evaluative and analytical data points I can revisit to determine whether I was wrong for reasons I should have foreseen.

In any event, I'm all for a friendly bet. I mean, I'm putting my pref list out in the public for ridicule anyway, so it's not like I should have any issue publicly standing behind the kid I have at 1-1, right?

[Stotle]

Keith Law on whether Giolito would sign for aroun $2 MM:

Bret (Toronto)

Do you think Giolito signs if drafted out of the top-10, and offered something around $2M?

Klaw (1:15 PM)

No. No reason for him to take that little (relative to expectations/what he could get in three years).

[Rene88]

From where I stand, there isn't a wrong choice between Correa and Gausman. My preference is Gausman, but it's a slight preference.

Thanks for all your analysis, great stuff in this thread. I learned a lot.

I will say at first glance Buxton seems to be better suited for an organization with a rich history of player development. We are improving here I know, but not sure I entirely trust us yet. Gausman and Correa both sound awesome.

I apologize if I missed this in the thread, but why was Giolito not on the preference list.

Thanks again!

[Stotle]

Thanks for all your analysis, great stuff in this thread. I learned a lot.

I will say at first glance Buxton seems to be better suited for an organization with a rich history of player development. We are improving here I know, but not sure I entirely trust us yet. Gausman and Correa both sound awesome.

I apologize if I missed this in the thread, but why was Giolito not on the preference list.

Thanks again!

Based on some aspects of his recent public workouts, statements to teams, and some aspects of his medicals of which I am aware, he is not a risk I would take on. He, Cecchini, Marrero, and Zunino were all dropped from consideration, with Zimmer serving as "back-up" option depending on how the first three picks unfold and what is remaining.

[oriolekid]

July 16

So a full month sooner for those that didn't catch this, which is fantastic for player developing. At least 4 more starts for a pitcher and 75+ AB's for a hitter with this new deadline.

[McNulty]

Not to pat myself on the back or anything, but I think most of the info out there is incomplete and I do think that my process is closer to the process used by many of the decisionmakers. For example, none of Appel, Gausman or Zimmer jump out as heads-and-tails above the other if you look at there stat lines. But if you parse the stats and look for particular red flags or encouraging signs, there are some legitimate arguments for ordering these kids in certain orders, depending on player types you like and areas you feel comfortable projecting.

Additionally, there are legitimate aspects of each of their backgrounds, experience, track record, mechanics, arsenal and even performance patterns that can additionally be viewed as positive or negative, depending on your overarching philosophy in projecting players out. The one thing I feel comfortable about is that I have Gausman as my favorite of the three for legitimate, arguable reasons. That is, I think I've been able to put together the pieces of the puzzle such that Gausman is closer to "the draft prospect I'd design if I was building one from scratch" than are any of the other arms. That doesn't mean I think that I'm right. But if I'm wrong, I know that I have certain evaluative and analytical data points I can revisit to determine whether I was wrong for reasons I should have foreseen.

In any event, I'm all for a friendly bet. I mean, I'm putting my pref list out in the public for ridicule anyway, so it's not like I should have any issue publicly standing behind the kid I have at 1-1, right?

Fair enough. I obviously haven't put nearly the time into this that you have, so I'm going with a much less educated position. Just liked Zimmer better for a few months now, that's all. Honestly I'm glad Zunino has dropped out of the conversation and that's all I was looking for.

[Stotle]

Fair enough. I obviously haven't put nearly the time into this that you have, so I'm going with a much less educated position. Just liked Zimmer better for a few months now, that's all. Honestly I'm glad Zunino has dropped out of the conversation and that's all I was looking for.

A couple statistical flags for unino, coupled with presence of Wieters, makes him a non-issue for me. Not sure if Baltimore feels the same, but I would imagine they do.

As an aside, this would be a really nice year for Baltimore to have a supplemental pick or two....

[Scrat1]

Is there any concern about Gausman's weight? He's tall, but fairly skinny (185 lbs), which puts him dangerously close to Chris Sale category. Sale is obviously getting results, but I remember there was concern whether his frame would hold up as a starter.