40% into the season, the tone is changing

[Frobby]

One thing that makes me feel confident is the number of games we've already played against the East.

BAL: 32 games

TAM: 32 games

BOS: 26 games

TOR: 25 games

NYY: 22 games

Seems to bode well, no?

Yes, that should be a point in our favor.

[OFFNY]

Games like last night on national broadcasts go a long way when it comes to general perceptions.

Perhaps ........ but, they also go a long way in pissing off Oriole fans all across the nation. :angryfire:

[weams]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/type/wild-card

[El Gordo]

Solid stat. I'm in the "it has to mean SOMETHING" camp. Is it possible to do a breakdown of # of games vs each team and everyones record vs them?

I know I'm asking a big and not willing to put fourth the effort, but if someone could do this you would be the barer of green reps. And also my hero for the hour... unless you wait until after Tiger tees off today.

O's are:

TB 3-3

TOR 5-4

BOS 6-3

MFY 3-5

To see how the other AL East teams stack up against each other, go to Baseball Reference, click on each team and go to schedules and results. Not rocket science if I can do it.

[OFFNY]

http://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/type/wild-card

If we ever win the American League pennant and/or the Word Series again, I fully expect to see an asterisk next to out title(s) in the ESPN final standings.

Baltimoreo) 38 27 .585 -

Tampa Bay 36 29 .554 -

LA AngelsO 35 31 .530 1.5

.

[BarclaySouthway]

The longer we can keep it going, the more chance we'll have to plug that issue. Just make it to the AS break - I want Garza real bad. Move anyone but Machado/Bundy. If we can get Reimold back, I really think that will be enough.

This would be the dream scenario. We need a solid veteran starter to be legit. But with all the FA starters hitting the market next year, the FO might not be as inclined to deal. I don't know that we have enough to get Garza anyway. Right now the season is hanging on 2 of Arrieta, Matusz, and Hunter finding a groove.

Just get to the All-Star break is my mantra. When we were 26-14, Frobby asked what the OH wanted to see for the next 40. Of course, .500 was the correct answer. We're 12-13 since then. Somehow, the Os are hanging in there. This is a resilient bunch. Just go .500 is the goal. Win one, lose one. That's good enough.

If we can go 10-10 over the next 20, that puts us at the All-Star break at 48-37. That's the first hurdle. The 20 games out of the break are the second hurdle. The 2005 team (I know this is not a scientific comparison, but as a fan this stuff matters to me) went 4-16 out of the break and the season was lost. This team needs to go, you guessed it, .500 over their first 20 out of the break. Actually it's 19 games to the trade deadline, so 9-10 would be fine. That would put us at 57-47 at the deadline. So I think if we somehow go 19-20 over the next 39, we're legit. I'm all in emotionally at this point.

Let's keep going. 27 games in August before the home stretch. If the Os can go 13-14 through August 30th, that puts them at 70-61. We need to go 32-34 from here on out to be 70-61 at the start of play on August 31st. We play 3 in NY that weekend. Including that series we play 7 vs. NYY, 6 vs. TB, 6 vs. TOR, and 6 vs. BOS down the stretch. That's when the division will be decided, and the Os need to go 32-34 to be in the thick of it. That's what I want out of this year-- to be in the thick of it on August 31st.

10-10 to the All-Star break.

9-10 to the trade deadline.

13-14 to August 31.

If I look at it like that, it seems doable, even with the team as constructed + Markakis. Every game matters. Now let's win today!

[rmt64]

O's are:

TB 3-3

TOR 5-4

BOS 6-3

MFY 3-5

To see how the other AL East teams stack up against each other, go to Baseball Reference, click on each team and go to schedules and results. Not rocket science if I can do it.

I'm more than capable of doing it. I was just in a bit of a rush earlier and thought whoever did it may have all that info already laid out for them.

Nice to see a winning record vs the division in that stretch finally. Hate the Yankees. At the rate their playing we'll likely never see 1st again and be clinging to one of those wc spots. Ugh

[SteveA]

Just to put in context the task ahead of us: we would all love to win the division but a wild card is much more realistic. There are two wild card spots, and right now we occupy the first one. We are 3.5 games ahead of the Angels for the last playoff spot.

WILD CARD RACE Orioles    38-27   +2 (2 games ahead of Rays)Rays       36-29   --Angels     35-31    1.5Indians    33-31    2.5Blue Jays  33-32    3Red Sox    32-33    4Tigers     31-34    5A's        31-35    5.5Royals     28-35    7

[Barnaby Graves]

Nope, nope, nope. Not buying it. Because:

inconsistent starting pitching

This is a huge problem, although ironically I think it's made us look a bit better because more innings have been passed off to a bullpen that is collectively having a career year. But the more you press them the more likely they are to regress, I would think. Chen is still pitching against a lot of guys who have never seen him so I'm not sure what his trajectory is. I think a AAA starter will be up here before the middle of July, or at least I really don't want to see more of Tommy Hunter. Brian Matusz I have no idea. Arrieta is better than his ERA and record as indicated by his BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 which have all improved. Hammel remains an enigma to me.

Our bench hurts us in the field but collectively they're hitting very well. I'm amazed Brian Roberts can do anything at all. I think you can make a case J.J. Hardy is the most valuable Oriole on this team and he's been a really anchor in an otherwise vulnerable infield, and that probably won't change. And Jones is just great. So it's not all question marks.

[OrangeJerseys]

This is the year Cindy is correct.

[theobird]

We are competing with our inconsistent starters. I'm not sure we can't solidify from within. We have to keep thinking long term. We had 14 years of losing, I want 14 years of winning, not one. If we can get a starter like Dempster or Garza, it would be great but I don't want to give up a top prospect. I would rather take my chances on Moyer, Tilman, Arrieta, Britton and/or someone else than trade a top prospect. If that puts Garza out of reach, so be it. Pitching is notoriously fickle and fragile. There aren't any guarantees out there, either way. DD will earn his money on this decision.

This is an excellent post IMO, and spot on. I agree that I do not want to part with a top prospect, and that long term vision is what needs to happen. That said, I think we should be trying to add a dependable middle to back of the rotation guy that will not cost us a top prospect. Can we get Dempster without giving up a top prospect? I really do not know. But I would think we could get Joe Saunders without giving up too much, and I am in favor of that.

[brianod]

This is an excellent post IMO, and spot on. I agree that I do not want to part with a top prospect, and that long term vision is what needs to happen. That said, I think we should be trying to add a dependable middle to back of the rotation guy that will not cost us a top prospect. Can we get Dempster without giving up a top prospect? I really do not know. But I would think we could get Joe Saunders without giving up too much, and I am in favor of that.

Now that we have given DD his direction, we can sit back and see what he can come up with:)

[El Gordo]

2/5 of the time our SP gives us an 73 % chance of winning and 3/5 of the time it gives us a 50 % chance. How many W's does that come to?

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

But the more you press them the more likely they are to regress, I would think. Chen is still pitching against a lot of guys who have never seen him so I'm not sure what his trajectory is. I think a AAA starter will be up here before the middle of July, or at least I really don't want to see more of Tommy Hunter. Brian Matusz I have no idea. Arrieta is better than his ERA and record as indicated by his BB/9, K/9, and HR/9 which have all improved. Hammel remains an enigma to me.

We are all concerned about the starters. I don't think we are winning the world series or anything. But this year is much different than years past. I think Chen and Hammel have shown that they are guys that we can count on to give us a chance to win every time out at the very least.

Matusz and Arrieta are the two most talented pitchers on our staff. Yeah they are inconsistent, but they are young, and I think chances are one of them figures it out to the tune of a 4ish ERA (I think Matusz is on the way there even after the frustration of the last two starts).

If both of them figure it out, LOOK OUT. If one of them figures it out (which is likely IMO), we have 3 solid starters and I really do think we will trade for another. Worst case is that neither of them figure it out.. We'll still end up trading for a starter, and we'll have a slew of talented pitchers (including Tillman) battling for the backend.

This is not David Hernandez, Jason Berken, Brad Bergesen or Alfredo Simon that we are depending on to be #2s. These are our most talented pitchers getting a chance to grow with experience at the backend of the rotation.

Throw whomever you want out there at #5. I don't love Hunter, but I think he can do OK at #5.

I think our pitching has a big chance of getting better towards the end of the year, not worse.

[olddogger]

2/5 of the time our SP gives us an 73 % chance of winning and 3/5 of the time it gives us a 50 % chance. How many W's does that come to?

The algebra says 96-97 wins