The Padres have sent three officials to watch the Orioles over the last two weeks

[OsEatAlEast]

Why do you think this? He was dfa'd and likely cost a bag of balls in the deal

I think they pick him up for back-up catcher also.

[Roll Tide]

Because the A's are looking at Y Escobar instead. I'm looking for the link now ...But I closed the web page.

[The Rick]

OK you don't like Chavez for a year. What about Scutaro, Izturis or Keppinger for a year until Machado is ready? Or do you have to have Headley at all costs.

Not sure why you are so against adding a potential 4-5 WAR guy who will be under control for 2 more years. Playoffs teams have more than just a couple good players usually. If we can get him w/o giving up Bundy and Machado, you need to pull the trigger there. There comes a time where the Orioles can't afford to be so damn conservative about every move they make.

[El Gordo]

Not to speak for Jim, but long term yes. I think he's worth it. I still have some hope this year, but just hope. The rational side of me says we have no shot at the playoffs this year. The moves I want to see are small, cheap moves to bolster our chances of easily breaking .500. That and/or a move that sets us up next year and the next. Headly falls in the second category.

I agree with the rational side of you. If Scoop is an average 2B at 2 WAR, that would be 12 W at 6 years, Avery, an average 4th OF at 1 WAR, that's another 6 and Arrieta, a back rotation SP at 1.5 WAR for another 4 years, that's another 6 W for a total of 24 W. Is 2 years and 2 months of Headley going to equal 24 W? And our players have the upside to be worth a good deal more than that.

[Roll Tide]

I agree with the rational side of you. If Scoop is an average 2B at 2 WAR, that would be 12 W at 6 years, Avery, an average 4th OF at 1 WAR, that's another 6 and Arrieta, a back rotation SP at 1.5 WAR for another 4 years, that's another 6 W for a total of 24 W. Is 2 years and 2 months of Headley going to equal 24 W? And our players have the upside to be worth a good deal more than that.

Im quite certain they will try to extend Headley.

[El Gordo]

Not sure why you are so against adding a potential 4-5 WAR guy who will be under control for 2 more years. Playoffs teams have more than just a couple good players usually. If we can get him w/o giving up Bundy and Machado, you need to pull the trigger there. There comes a time where the Orioles can't afford to be so damn conservative about every move they make.

I am not against adding Headley. I am against giving up Avery, Arrieta, and Schoop. As bad as he has been this season Arrietta has been worth 1.6 fWAR. What is a reasonable expectation for Schoop in terms of W over the 6 years of control. Between the two they will probably be worth more than the 12 W you suggest Headley might be worth. And who knows what Avery could add to that.We can significantly upgrade 3B over Betemit, next season, with out trading any of them. Headley this season over Betemit is not going to get us the 37 W we need to have a shot at the WC. Headley and Greinke, most likely wouldn't.

[El Gordo]

Im quite certain they will try to extend Headley.

Are you quite certain they will succeed?

[Roll Tide]

Are you quite certain they will succeed?

As certain you are that Machado will be a MLB star. Nothing is a sure thing these days. But the team is play meaningful games they need to improve the club with some talent that other teams actually want.

[Lucky Jim]

I am not against adding Headley. I am against giving up Avery, Arrieta, and Schoop. As bad as he has been this season Arrietta has been worth 1.6 fWAR.

Based entirely on his FIP - which doesn't take into account his xBABIP or the fact that his K-rates are inflated relative to his below average SwSt%. Ugh. The absurd use of statistics just continues, unabated.

[El Gordo]

Based entirely on his FIP - which doesn't take into account his xBABIP or the fact that his K-rates are inflated relative to his below average SwSt%. Ugh. The absurd use of statistics just continues, unabated.

You've characterized Jake as a #4-5 SP. Lets say he is Joe Blanton the next 4 years under control That would be worth about 8 fWAR. Headley the next 2 years 2 months we would control him might be worth 10-12 WAR. So Jakes value could be 3/4 of Headley's by himself, without factoring in Schoop, and Avery/Hoes. Now if you are certain as some people are, that we extend Headley and indeed he performs at his away numbers in the AL East, he might be worth the combined value of Arrieta, Schoop and Avery. if none of them proves to be anything more than mediocre.

[Mr Snuffleupagus]

You've characterized Jake as a #4-5 SP. Lets say he is Joe Blanton the next 4 years under control That would be worth about 8 fWAR. Headley the next 2 years 2 months we would control him might be worth 10-12 WAR. So Jakes value could be 3/4 of Headley's by himself, without factoring in Schoop, and Avery/Hoes. Now if you are certain as some people are, that we extend Headley and indeed he performs at his away numbers in the AL East, he might be worth the combined value of Arrieta, Schoop and Avery. if none of them proves to be anything more than mediocre.

I don't think you can look at these deals strictly based on what the total WAR is that we're giving up vs what we're obtaining. I'll take my chances being able to replace a couple 2 WAR SP's and OF'ers. They're much easier obtained then 4 WAR 3B's.

[Lucky Jim]

I don't think you can look at these deals strictly based on what the total WAR is that we're giving up vs what we're obtaining. I'll take my chances being able to replace a couple 2 WAR SP's and OF'ers. They're much easier obtained then 4 WAR 3B's.

Bingo.

[weams]

You've characterized Jake as a #4-5 SP. Lets say he is Joe Blanton the next 4 years under control That would be worth about 8 fWAR. Headley the next 2 years 2 months we would control him might be worth 10-12 WAR. So Jakes value could be 3/4 of Headley's by himself, without factoring in Schoop, and Avery/Hoes. Now if you are certain as some people are, that we extend Headley and indeed he performs at his away numbers in the AL East, he might be worth the combined value of Arrieta, Schoop and Avery. if none of them proves to be anything more than mediocre.

No. Because you would be paying the inflated extension price for those WAR from Headley where the WAR from the talent sent would be at a bargain team controlled rate.

[Lucky Jim]

No. Because you would be paying the inflated extension price for those WAR from Headley where the WAR from the talent sent would be at a bargain team controlled rate.

Sure. That's true. But you're not looking at the range of probabilities. There's a not insignificant chance that none of these guys produce any substantial WAR for the team. There's very little risk that this is the case w/ Headley (injury, I guess, presents some possibility). You're trading long-term value w/ considerable risk for short-term value with little risk. That's the essence of the swap, not WAR-for-WAR.

If Gordo's logic were applied, no multiple-prospect deals would ever get done.

In the end, I don't think it's that dissimilar a trade (from a value standpoint, not a structural one) from the one in which the Yankees sent off Ian Kennedy, Austin Jackson and Phil Coke to get Curtis Granderson.

[Greg]

Jon Heyman ‏@JonHeymanCBS

#athletics don't have a match to get headley. #orioles #pirates #indians appear in. #yankees have checked in