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TheBee

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the Baseball draft is strange like. The NBA & NFL have the built in salary slotting structure.

Agents hold way too much power in the negiotations, with the eligibility policy as it stands. Without thinking too much into it, they really should look into adopting the NBA policy about eligibility.

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You miss the entire point, RShack, but I don't have the time to read your mini-novels, and spend the next 10 pages writing, in a surely futile attempt, in order to set you straight. Suffice it to say, I disagree with your faulty logic here, but you are entitled to your flawed opinion anyway. :)

More important things to do. Gotta try and remember where I stored the Christmas tree ornaments last year.

Of course, draft position matters...except when it doesn't.:cool:
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How come we rarely hear him mentioned in trade possibilties? Is he someone Cincy wouldn't deal? We need a decent SS.

He's probably not going to be dealt, especially if they end up trading Encarnacion or Votto because Kepp can play all four infield positions. Kepp can definitely flat out hit and in a lineup filled with a ton of power, having a guy who can consistantly hit and get on base provides even more runs for the lineup.

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You miss the entire point, RShack, but I don't have the time to read your mini-novels, and spend the next 10 pages writing, in a surely futile attempt, in order to set you straight. Suffice it to say, I disagree with your faulty logic here, but you are entitled to your flawed opinion anyway. :)

I guess I "just don't get it" ;-)

Actually, I do get it. I do see your point. I just think it's funny the way some folks (not necessarily talkin' about you) think it's automatic, that's all. Plus, I never heard anybody ever say that draft position doesn't matter. Did anybody ever say that? Ever? Even once? I never saw it.

As for mini-novels, I never asked you to read it. I just put up my theory because I thought some folks might find it interesting to consider something other than just trade-talk. Nothing wrong with trade-talk, but lately it seems like it's all-trade-talk all-the-time. AFAIK, not much of it is new. It's getting to be like TV when nothing's on but reruns. Variety is the spice of life, don't you think? Dunno what that has to do with this, though. Not sure why it bothers you either. But, whatever, you can be bothered if you want. Did you find the ornaments? How many places could they be?

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As for mini-novels, I never asked you to read it. I just put up my theory because I thought some folks might find it interesting to consider something other than just trade-talk. Nothing wrong with trade-talk, but lately it seems like it's all-trade-talk all-the-time. AFAIK, not much of it is new. It's getting to be like TV when nothing's on but reruns.

You're speaking for me here.... :P

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Exactly right.

Just ask the Rangers. They got stuck with Teixeira because they were down at 5th, when if they'd drafted 2 slots higher, they could've grabbed this guy instead. If the O's had been smart and lost more ballgames a few years ago like some folks were hoping they would do this year, instead of having to settle for Nick at 7th, they could've drafted higher and grabbed their choice of this guy who went 6th, or this guy who went 5th, or this guy who went 3rd. Dumb Orioles, they weren't even smart enough to lose more to get better talent, so now we're stuck with Nick.

I want to be clear about your meaning here... Are you suggesting that having the highest possible draft choice is unimportant?

It seems that you are attempting to make your point by selecting a couple of particular instances, and you can certainly find many more... however, research has shown, quite clearly, that the higher the draft choice, the more likely that player is to make it to the majors. I myself did a very interesting study earlier this year which showed that again, quite clearly, that the higher first round picks were the benefactors of solid scouting and noticeably exceeded the picks made below them in success percentage.

With that being said, I understand a poster's right to view the draft as a crap-shoot, and that the specific draft slot may be too stringently clamored for by us 'draftniks', but I feel that were someone so inclined to do the research themselves, they may view this issue in a different light.

With all of that being said, I will add that the most important factor in the drafting of these youngsters is to have a great scouting department making the right choices, which far exceeds the importance of where a team chooses.

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I want to be clear about your meaning here... Are you suggesting that having the highest possible draft choice is unimportant?

It seems that you are attempting to make your point by selecting a couple of particular instances, and you can certainly find many more... however, research has shown, quite clearly, that the higher the draft choice, the more likely that player is to make it to the majors. I myself did a very interesting study earlier this year which showed that again, quite clearly, that the higher first round picks were the benefactors of solid scouting and noticeably exceeded the picks made below them in success percentage.

With that being said, I understand a poster's right to view the draft as a crap-shoot, and that the specific draft slot may be too stringently clamored for by us 'draftniks', but I feel that were someone so inclined to do the research themselves, they may view this issue in a different light.

If I can add my 2 cents... the drafting system obviously isn't perfect and is only as good as those who control it's mechanism... how many top draft choices flopped for the O's over the last 10 years... was that because the rating system is flawed, the people making the decisions were flawed, or the players themselves just weren't what they were supposed to be? Could be some combination I suppose... but I have to say, I see Notre Dame in CF who has had at least a few top 10 dafts in the last few years and yet they stuggle to win a game, how is that possible? Poor coaching perhaps, but not likely, is it possible the people rating the high school players have a flawed system? I don't know the answer obviously, but rankings are somewhat subjective, sure they are based on a certain amount of statistical information, and perhaps scouting information, but how you rate a player against another from that information has some subjectivity in it... and therefore can be flawed... sorry for the book RZ... :002_sbiggrin:

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but I have to say, I see Notre Dame in CF who has had at least a few top 10 dafts in the last few years and yet they stuggle to win a game, how is that possible? Poor coaching perhaps, but not likely, is it possible the people rating the high school players have a flawed system?

I think ND recruiting problem is a self fullfulling prophecy. When a recruit verbals (and eventually signs) with ND they always go up in star rankings or are highly regarded because they are considering ND. This isn't the only school that this happens with but I don't think this is anywhere near the case in MLB drafting. I know if I feel much more confident in our draft strategy with Joe Jordan at the helm. Hopefully we will continue to overpay for draft picks (especially after the 1st round) and start stockpiling some good young talent.

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I think ND recruiting problem is a self fullfulling prophecy. When a recruit verbals (and eventually signs) with ND they always go up in star rankings or are highly regarded because they are considering ND.

Thanks... I didn't realize that so it does under-score a flawed system... I agree with you about Jordan..... I like all the guys we have throughout the system now.... it will be interesting to see how kranitz works with our guys...

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I want to be clear about your meaning here... Are you suggesting that having the highest possible draft choice is unimportant?

Nah, of course not. I was mainly reacting to the fact that some people think it's a sure thing, that's all. I'm certainly not saying that draft position is not important.

At the same time, I think it's maybe been over-sold. While research may show that it matters a lot, research also shows 3 other things too:

  • 1. A surprising % of 1st round guys amount to absolutely nothing.
  • 2. Lots and lots and lots of baseball's truly great players get picked a mile down the list. Just look at Cal (#48) or Eddie (#63).
  • 3. Even among successful 1st-rounders, lots of them come towards the bottom.

In addition to that, one of most un-fan-like things I've ever seen in my life was when people were *rooting* for the O's to *lose* because it would move them up from #4 to #3 (or whatever it was) and that would give them Player-X who is 100% certain to be a perennial All Star, based on what some magazine said. I think that was terrible regardless. But given how much a crapshoot the draft is in general, and given the trivial diff between #4 and #3, it was also entirely pointless and just plain dumb. I thought it it was the worst of both worlds.

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one of most un-fan-like things I've ever seen in my life was when people were *rooting* for the O's to *lose* because it would move them up from #4 to #3 (or whatever it was) and that would give them Player-X who is 100% certain to be a perennial All Star, based on what some magazine said. I think that was terrible regardless. But given how much a crapshoot the draft is in general, and given the trivial diff between #4 and #3, it was also entirely pointless and just plain dumb. I thought it it was the worst of both worlds.

Amen to that.

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Hey guys, 1st post here. I am a Red's fan but thought to myself why not go with and Orioles name while on here thus the O'chested. Ask all you like about the Red's I fell very confident about my ability to give you guys any neccessary info with regards to the Red's players, prospects, mindset etc.

I have been lurking here for a couple of weeks off and on and would like to clear up some misconceptions about some Red's related items.

#1 - Homer Bailey is not a problem child and will never be one. He did state at one point around the time he was drafted that baseball to him was more a situation where he is good at it therefore it's more a job than a passion. At the time that concerned me a great deal obviously. However that shouldn't worry anyone because he's a classy individual and a true professional, so he goes about his business in a blue collar way. And I believe that baseball has grown on him, just my opinion but if he had never said that originally you couldn't have been able to tell by the way he competes and plays the game with the type of intensity you wish everyone on the team would have.

He does have a few issues like his command isn't neccessarily on par with a Hughes or maybe even Bucholz but his ceiling is higher than either. The command does worry some Red's fans but not me so much as again he's a hard worker and I believe he will get that straightened out. He watched some film last year after one outing (perhaps more as well not sure) and detected a flaw himself. His delivery for a power pitcher is outstanding and we all know how important that is to avoiding arm, elbow, shoulder injuries so that should also help to benefit him while trying to work out his command issues.

His fastball is usually around 93-95 and I have seen him get it up to 98 ('06 Futures game) and up to '97 last year. His curve is very good as well and he is still working on his change-up but it is coming along and it's currently avg, I think it might be his arm action that is keeping it avg but that's just my opinion. Overall I think he needs a bit more polish on command and control but he's not as far away IMO than DCab.

#2 - Josh Hamilton is quite literally "The Natural", he's not nearly as big as say Adam Dunn but hit's the ball with as much authority and with much less effort. When you watch him it's as if he just swings like he's just trying to make contact, flicks those wrists and it's hammered. He squares the ball so well which is what makes him so effective. When you watch him play he makes everyone else look like they are struggling or simply put just do not have anywhere near the talent, it's a beautiful thing. He can play CF adequately however he projects to be a RF with an awesome cannon of an arm and amazing accuracy. His only true on the field issue so far has been a lack of hitting vs. LHP but again this IMO is just a matter of time given the fact that he reads the ball literally as it's in the hand of the pitcher (again literally), has great plate discipline, very good plate coverage and quick hands and outstanding bat control. And he is a tad bit rusty on the basepaths but is still above league avg there as well. Ya gotta remember with him that he hasn't gotten to develop much in the minors due to being out of the game alltogether (no ball at all) for 5 years.

IMO We would be foolish to part with these 2 guys however I understand the nature of the situation, we plan to put a winner on the field this year and these our are best tradeable commodities after Jay Bruce who is also a phenom. But Bruce is too young and talented to deal it's just that simple. I see this kid smoking the competition for NL ROY this upcoming season if we can clear a spot for him. But as good as he is and he is very, very good his pure natural talent is still a tick below Hamilton IMO. Hamilton is in the class of Griffey or A-Rod if he hadn't had the drug issues, he is just that good.

Speaking of which Hamilton is clean and has been for 2 years and as much as that's not a guarantee of anything it certainly speaks volumes about his resolve and a credit to his faith. To go from not being able to stay clean for mere hours to clean for 2 yrs says alot. However it brings up a valid point which is his biggest question mark in my mind. Did the abuse (and the auto accident which put him in the hole to begin with) take it's toll to the point where he will not be able to stay on the field enough to take advantage of his tremendous talents? That my friends is the big question, and if he can answer it this season (he's conditioning himself this offseason for the rigors of a full season) he will hold tremendous value this time next year.

#3 - Jhonny Cueto - He's a future #2 if his slight frame holds up whereas Bailey is a surefire #1 if he get's his command/control straight. Bailey a higher ceiling, Cueto a higher floor that is the biggest difference between the 2. The one other thing that Cueto has over Bailey is that he is a more natural "pitcher" in that he just knows how to go after guys, set them up use all his pitches in all counts etc. Whereas Bailey up until his debut pretty much didn't have to throw much of anything beyond his fastball and occasional curve. His heater was just to difficult for lower level guys to catch up to for him to have to rely on anything else.

Cueto throws his fastball regularly at around 89-93 but oddly enough can get it all the way up to 97 when need be. He actually changes speeds alot and is very succesful at it. He also throws a good slider and good change-up. He's sorta Pedro-esque with fewer pitches and probably less movement on his pitches (Pedro had awesome movement as we all know). His command and control are very good. So it has been just a matter of stretching him out so we can use him at the big league level as a starter (Krivsky doesn't believe in breaking in starters by using the pen, unless he has to See: Valenzuela).

#4 - Votto, you guys are pretty much on the mark about this kid. He's another solid citizen, very intelligent and well rounded (loves to read real books ;) ). Is very talented but not on the level of a Bruce, but he is well rounded on the field as well and although his defense isn't gold glove caliber he has come along way already and I would expect him to continue to improve to be a solid defender. His bat is power + avg and as someone pointed out he can run pretty well for a 1B. Overall Joey is pretty much what you see.

#5 - Stubbs is likely better than some suggest, although the jury is still out on him. Alot of Reds fans think he will never pan out, I won't commit either way but will say I saw a big jump in his development last season. His only real issue is contact but of course that's a big one. However we have primarily used him as a leadoff hitter up until right around the time he took off last year (took alot of pitches) and then he was moved down to the 5th hole (didn't have to take as many pitches). And also his manager at Dayton forced him to choke up on the bat at about the same time as well. What happened was a lot better contact and thus a lot better #'s. If that wasn't just a hot streak (about the final 2+ months) then he has turned a corner and if so everything else should fall into place to make him a Gold Glove CF and perhaps a bat along the lines of a Mike Cameron. I sorta expect him to start out at AA this year if for no other reason than to keep a guy who has struggled in the past to avoid playing in the harder to hit FSL.

And the rest is.....Keppinger can hit but lacks the range to be an all-star SS, but can play there and does pretty fair. Dorn is a masher and a solid prospect but can he hit well enough to start in a COF spot and will he hit LHP? Roenicke is a stud if he get's his command polished up a bit. Loo is a big question mark, however the fact he came up in discussions makes me wonder if he hasn't re-thought his options and may be on the road back. He can hit but may not be a SS probably a 3B. Valaika will be a 2B. Janish is maybe Adam Everett, maybe. Encarnacion isn't a likely person to be dealt due to a lack of a suitable replacement (Keppinger maybe could fill in). But Encarnacion has a knack for driving in runs and his defense is improving and he is a key RH bat for us (we are very LH heavy). Phillips may be the 3rd most untouchable in the entire organization behind only Bruce and Harang and just ahead of Dunn. Francisco has a chance but a slight one unless he changes his complete approach at the plate (swings at everything) and moves to another position or dramatically improves at 3rd (error machine). And Pelland (SP), Viola (RP), Wood (SP) and Maloney (SP) are all quality LH's with a good future who are not that far away. And Carlos Fisher is a solid sleeper starter who keeps the ball on the ground.

And my guess is if we can make a deal it will likely be:

Bailey or Cueto

Hamilton or Votto

Stubbs

Pelland (LHRP)

for Bedard and Bradford

If it were me (Just because I love Hamilton's potential)

It would be Cueto, Votto, Dorn and Lutz (who I admittedly only know little about, except that many I respect seem to like him almost as much as Roenicke). But I would be content with Bailey or Hamilton going as I wanna win ultimately and Bedard is a big step in the right direction. I might be inclined to raise that offer a tad if Bedard was willing to sign a LTC before the deal, but I think we all know that won't happen which is driving his price down. Nobody wants to deal a potential ready superstar for a guy who is gonna walk in 2 years, but we have went out on the ledge offering what we have offered.

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Hey guys' date=' 1st post here. I am a Red's fan but thought to myself why not go with and Orioles name while on here thus the O'chested. Ask all you like about the Red's I fell very confident about my ability to give you guys any neccessary info with regards to the Red's players, prospects, mindset etc.

[omitted to save space']

And my guess is if we can make a deal it will likely be:

Bailey or Cueto

Hamilton or Votto

Stubbs

Pelland (LHRP)

for Bedard and Bradford

If it were me (Just because I love Hamilton's potential)

It would be Cueto, Votto, Dorn and Lutz (who I admittedly only know little about, except that many I respect seem to like him almost as much as Roenicke). But I would be content with Bailey or Hamilton going as I wanna win ultimately and Bedard is a big step in the right direction. I might be inclined to raise that offer a tad if Bedard was willing to sign a LTC before the deal, but I think we all know that won't happen which is driving his price down. Nobody wants to deal a potential ready superstar for a guy who is gonna walk in 2 years, but we have went out on the ledge offering what we have offered.

That is a very nice first post my friend. Stick around.

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